Betting Talk

2014 Week 3 NFL Power Ratings

yung_keeksyung_keeks Junior Member
edited September 2014 in Sports Betting
Just curious to see what some of you guys think about my numbers. Always looking for feedback from sharp minds and opinions.

Here are the updated power ratings for Week 3:

85.0 Seattle
84.0 Denver
82.0 New England, New Orleans, San Francisco
80.5 Green Bay
80.0 Cincinnati
79.5 Philadelphia
78.5 Indianapolis, San Diego
78.0 Carolina, Detroit, Baltimore, Arizona (w/ Palmer)
77.5 Chicago, Pittsburgh
77.0 Atlanta
76.5 Miami, Houston, Buffalo
76.0 Dallas, NYJ
75.5 Kansas City, Arizona (w/ Stanton)
75.0 Cleveland, Tennessee, Washington
74.5 Minnesota, Tampa Bay, St. Louis
73.5 NYG
71.5 Jacksonville
71.0 Oakland

Comments

  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    You can go ahead and move tbay beneath Jacksonville lol
  • marcbryanjacobmarcbryanjacob Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Right now I would split Indy and SD. Take the former down maybe a point and the latter up a point. Scale is 100 for a mythical "perfect" team, right?
  • yung_keeksyung_keeks Junior Member
    edited September 2014
    Didn't really put too much thought into the scale. Kind of just used arbitrary numbers there with an 85 starting at the top. I guess the proverbial "perfect" team would be a 90, but I didn't really think about it like that.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    yung_keeks wrote: »
    Just curious to see what some of you guys think about my numbers. Always looking for feedback from sharp minds and opinions.

    Here are the updated power ratings for Week 3:

    85.0 Seattle
    84.0 Denver
    82.0 New England, New Orleans, San Francisco
    80.5 Green Bay
    80.0 Cincinnati
    79.5 Philadelphia
    78.5 Indianapolis, San Diego
    78.0 Carolina, Detroit, Baltimore, Arizona (w/ Palmer)
    77.5 Chicago, Pittsburgh
    77.0 Atlanta
    76.5 Miami, Houston, Buffalo
    76.0 Dallas, NYJ
    75.5 Kansas City, Arizona (w/ Stanton)
    75.0 Cleveland, Tennessee, Washington
    74.5 Minnesota, Tampa Bay, St. Louis
    73.5 NYG
    71.5 Jacksonville
    71.0 Oakland

    Those look quite similar to these.

    http://statintelligence.blogspot.com/

    SEP
    17
    Estimated NFL “Market” Power Ratings (September 17, 2014)

    Our scheduled Wednesday estimate of how “the market” currently has NFL teams rated right now as deduced from current pointspreads. I use a standard 3 points for home field advantage, then create a couplet for every game that sets each pairing the correct distance apart based on the current line. Then I try to place that couplet in the most logical spot on the scale. (New England is currently -14 vs. Oakland, so New England has to be 11 points better than Oakland once you factor in home field).

    Here’s what it looks like with two games in the books. I have different home/road numbers for Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans because those teams have been getting additional market respect in their home games.

    Note also that the market is often prone to allow 1 point of consideration for teams who played the prior Thursday Night because of extra rest and preparation time. I’m putting Baltimore and Pittsburgh on the 79 line this week even though one could argue they’re being priced as 80’s. I think that pricing reflects the extra rest rather than a leap into playoff caliber (particularly for Pittsburgh since they got waxed in Baltimore).

    87: Seattle (at home)
    86: Seattle (on the road), Denver (at home)
    85: Denver (on the road)
    83: New England, San Francisco, New Orleans (at home)
    82: New Orleans (on the road)
    81: Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Carolina, Green Bay
    80: Indianapolis, San Diego, Detroit
    79: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona (with Palmer)
    78: Buffalo, Miami, NY Jets, Washington, Chicago
    77: Tennessee, Arizona (with Stanton)
    76: Kansas City, Tampa Bay
    75: Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota (no Peterson)
    74: NY Giants
    72: Jacksonville, Oakland

    Still a lot of squishiness in the middle. And, questions from me like “man, what does Carolina have to do to get some respect?” And, “man, what does Cleveland have to do to be thought of as higher than a 75?” And, “man, when is New Orleans going to finally be priced like a 79 or an 80 on the road?” And, “man, isn’t Cincinnati playing better than that?”

    Let’s take them game-by-game like we did last week, in rotation order:
    Tampa Bay (76) at Atlanta (79)
    San Diego (80) at Buffalo (78) (allowing 1 point for letdown/bad body clock for SD with Buffalo at -2)
    Dallas (79) at St. Louis (75)
    Washington (78) at Philadelphia (81)
    Houston (79) at NY Giants (74)
    Minnesota (75) at New Orleans (83 at home)
    Tennessee (77) at Cincinnati (81)
    Baltimore (79) at Cleveland (75)
    Green Bay (81) at Detroit (80)
    Indianapolis (80) at Jacksonville (72) (think Jax only gets 2 for home field these days)
    Oakland (72) at New England (83)
    San Francisco (83) at Arizona (80 with Palmer, 77 with Stanton)
    Denver (85 on road) at Seattle (87 at home)
    Kansas City (76) at Miami (78)
    Pittsburgh (79) at Carolina (81)
    Chicago (78) at NY Jets (78)

    I’m not clear on why Dallas is -1 on the road at St. Louis…74 seems to low for St. Louis, and 79 or 80 seems too high for Dallas. Settled on 79 and 75 as a compromise. Maybe it’s 80 and 76 and the sharps really like Dallas (many were betting the Cowboys in the SF game).

    It’s possible that Washington and Philly should be 78 and 82. Washington does seem more effective with Cousins, and Philly had a nice rally at Indy.

    Maybe Houston and NY Giants are 78 and 73, but I’m not quite ready to knock NYG down quite that far yet. Maybe the market has.

    See you late Thursday night with some game summaries…
    Posted 6 days ago by Jeff Fogle
  • yung_keeksyung_keeks Junior Member
    edited September 2014
    kdog wrote: »
    Those look quite similar to these.

    http://statintelligence.blogspot.com/

    SEP
    17
    Estimated NFL “Market” Power Ratings (September 17, 2014)

    Our scheduled Wednesday estimate of how “the market” currently has NFL teams rated right now as deduced from current pointspreads. I use a standard 3 points for home field advantage, then create a couplet for every game that sets each pairing the correct distance apart based on the current line. Then I try to place that couplet in the most logical spot on the scale. (New England is currently -14 vs. Oakland, so New England has to be 11 points better than Oakland once you factor in home field).

    Here’s what it looks like with two games in the books. I have different home/road numbers for Seattle, Denver, and New Orleans because those teams have been getting additional market respect in their home games.

    Note also that the market is often prone to allow 1 point of consideration for teams who played the prior Thursday Night because of extra rest and preparation time. I’m putting Baltimore and Pittsburgh on the 79 line this week even though one could argue they’re being priced as 80’s. I think that pricing reflects the extra rest rather than a leap into playoff caliber (particularly for Pittsburgh since they got waxed in Baltimore).

    87: Seattle (at home)
    86: Seattle (on the road), Denver (at home)
    85: Denver (on the road)
    83: New England, San Francisco, New Orleans (at home)
    82: New Orleans (on the road)
    81: Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Carolina, Green Bay
    80: Indianapolis, San Diego, Detroit
    79: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona (with Palmer)
    78: Buffalo, Miami, NY Jets, Washington, Chicago
    77: Tennessee, Arizona (with Stanton)
    76: Kansas City, Tampa Bay
    75: Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota (no Peterson)
    74: NY Giants
    72: Jacksonville, Oakland

    Still a lot of squishiness in the middle. And, questions from me like “man, what does Carolina have to do to get some respect?” And, “man, what does Cleveland have to do to be thought of as higher than a 75?” And, “man, when is New Orleans going to finally be priced like a 79 or an 80 on the road?” And, “man, isn’t Cincinnati playing better than that?”

    Let’s take them game-by-game like we did last week, in rotation order:
    Tampa Bay (76) at Atlanta (79)
    San Diego (80) at Buffalo (78) (allowing 1 point for letdown/bad body clock for SD with Buffalo at -2)
    Dallas (79) at St. Louis (75)
    Washington (78) at Philadelphia (81)
    Houston (79) at NY Giants (74)
    Minnesota (75) at New Orleans (83 at home)
    Tennessee (77) at Cincinnati (81)
    Baltimore (79) at Cleveland (75)
    Green Bay (81) at Detroit (80)
    Indianapolis (80) at Jacksonville (72) (think Jax only gets 2 for home field these days)
    Oakland (72) at New England (83)
    San Francisco (83) at Arizona (80 with Palmer, 77 with Stanton)
    Denver (85 on road) at Seattle (87 at home)
    Kansas City (76) at Miami (78)
    Pittsburgh (79) at Carolina (81)
    Chicago (78) at NY Jets (78)

    I’m not clear on why Dallas is -1 on the road at St. Louis…74 seems to low for St. Louis, and 79 or 80 seems too high for Dallas. Settled on 79 and 75 as a compromise. Maybe it’s 80 and 76 and the sharps really like Dallas (many were betting the Cowboys in the SF game).

    It’s possible that Washington and Philly should be 78 and 82. Washington does seem more effective with Cousins, and Philly had a nice rally at Indy.

    Maybe Houston and NY Giants are 78 and 73, but I’m not quite ready to knock NYG down quite that far yet. Maybe the market has.

    See you late Thursday night with some game summaries…
    Posted 6 days ago by Jeff Fogle
    '


    Yeah I've been reading Fogle for a couple years now and think he really knows his stuff. I got the format from him to start with the best team around an 85, space it out by about two touchdowns or so, and fill in the gaps, but that's about it. I make my own #'s. However I do reference the market at times, which would make sense why they are similar considering they are "estimated market power ratings."

    Not sure what you're trying to suggest, but yeah I've been reading Fogle for years and his insight has taught me how to create power ratings. Don't really get what's wrong with that...
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