Betting Talk

Adrian Peterson

kanekane Senior Member
edited September 2014 in Sports Betting
Haven't checked out any details yet, but apparently there's a chance he'll miss Sunday's game. Line already moving up.
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Comments

  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2014
    kane wrote: »
    Haven't checked out any details yet, but apparently there's a chance he'll miss Sunday's game. Line already moving up.

    Child abuse case.
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    how many points is he worth?
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    how many points is he worth?

    Good question, I would guess one point, maybe one and a half
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    He's officially out, let's see where the line goes. I'll be on Minny at the best number I can get.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2014
    It started on 3 so i think you may get 6 to start, people will bet it up from there. If Patterson gets the majority of AP's expected touches, he won't be missed much.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    kane wrote: »
    He's officially out, let's see where the line goes. I'll be on Minny at the best number I can get.

    Without Peterson, NE will respect the rushing game less, look for more pass-rushers than runstoppers on the DL. Also less time for Cassel means higher probability for turnovers. NE knows Cassel. Looking a lot less likely now that Minny wins or covers. Call me a square on this one.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    It started on 3 so i think you may get 6 to start, people will bet it up from there. If Patterson gets the majority of AP's expected touches, he won't be missed much.

    AP worth three points, I wouldn't have thought any RB would be worth that much, I don't care who it is. I'll gladly take six with the Vikings.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2014
    kane wrote: »
    AP worth three points, I wouldn't have thought any RB would be worth that much, I don't care who it is. I'll gladly take six with the Vikings.

    Didnt say he was worth it or not, just thought that's where the line would start. Patterson getting a lot of his touches makes him worth a lot less.
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    great week for the NFL
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Opened back at +7
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Opened back at +7

    Where, old wise one?
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    kane wrote: »
    Where, old wise one?

    +6 at 5D
    +7 Sportsbook.com :laughing:
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Looks like Pinny re-opened at 4-02 and was quickly bet up to 5-05, I just now see W. Hill opened up at 5, waiting on some others.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Agree with kane and SY. Peterson isn't worth 3 unless the backup is some kid off the street, and given that Patterson should gobble up a lot of those touches, he's definitely not worth 3 to these Vikings.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    BOL had +6.5 I hit it
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited September 2014
    Is there a rb in Minny worth picking up in fantasy if this is a long term thing? Like, would you drop shonn Greene or forsett for asiata or McKinnon.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Agree with kane and SY. Peterson isn't worth 3 unless the backup is some kid off the street, and given that Patterson should gobble up a lot of those touches, he's definitely not worth 3 to these Vikings.

    I don't know much about the nfl but I can't imagine Patterson getting a lot of his touches. ESP since he just became bellichecks main focus. Assiatta will get most of his touches I would think.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    worm33 wrote: »
    I don't know much about the nfl but I can't imagine Patterson getting a lot of his touches. ESP since he just became bellichecks main focus. Assiatta will get most of his touches I would think.

    Agree,
    Also think that Patterson is not going to surprise the NE defense with his sweeps, or rushes.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2014
    Doesn't have to surprise them. Everyone knew he was getting the ball last week but it didn't seem to help any.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    Doesn't have to surprise them. Everyone knew he was getting the ball last week but it didn't seem to help any.

    Diiferent thing for a defense to account for Peterson and Patterson than Patterson alone wouldn't you think?

    Reason why there was value on NE at -3.5 and -4 with Peterson out, was the fact that the probability of turnovers just became bigger. Minny not probable of receiving 2 turnovers from opponent again like against STL.

    At -7/+7 value goes back to Minny imo, but not enough to bet it. Anything in between is coin flipping imo
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    Doesn't have to surprise them. Everyone knew he was getting the ball last week but it didn't seem to help any.

    I don't think that's really true I mean he had 6 touches...most of them were off of mis-direction involving ap and the rams were intent on stopping ap after his comment earlier in the week and the last time they faced the Vikings he had 200 plus yards. I do believe Patterson took them by a bit of surprise.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Diiferent thing for a defense to account for Peterson and Patterson than Patterson alone wouldn't you think?

    Reason why there was value on NE at -3.5 and -4 with Peterson out, was the fact that the probability of turnovers just became bigger. Minny not probable of receiving 2 turnovers from opponent again like against STL.

    At -7/+7 value goes back to Minny imo, but not enough to bet it. Anything in between is coin flipping imo

    Think about this. Most people are already saying Revis is going to shadow Patterson(pre Peterson being out). What if he lines up in the backfield? What are you going to do with Revis? You going to take out a LB and go nickel all game? Split two wide with Patterson lined up in the backfield. Corners take the wide guys, Revis will probably take Jennings. Motion Patterson away from Revis into the slot and now NE has to decide if the corner switches off the outside guy and the safety steps out(if they aren't in nickel). Safety covering a WR on the outside is a nightmare, hard enough to cover them in the slot(which is why teams love their slots guys). Shit, motion him toward Revis and make a safety cover Jennings wide. No motion and you have to cover him with a LB unless you play off the outside WR's and go 1 deep. Having someone like Patterson line up consistently in the backfield causes so many nightmares, especially when you haven't really been preparing for it or you prepared to stick your cover corner on him lined up outside. Now if they wait until 3rd and long to line him up back there, it makes it useless. What makes all this probable with Minnesota and not for other teams is Patterson is as dangerous as any RB running the ball out of the backfield. You can't just assume they are trying to get a matchup on you on a pass. Don't respect the run, and all you will see is his ass. The guy is a freakish weapon and now he can used like one. Whether Minnesota does so is another story.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    worm33 wrote: »
    I don't know much about the nfl but I can't imagine Patterson getting a lot of his touches. ESP since he just became bellichecks main focus. Assiatta will get most of his touches I would think.

    Could be true. I won't pretend to be some NFL guru, either. I just can't see a RB being worth 3.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited September 2014
    worm33 wrote: »
    I don't think that's really true I mean he had 6 touches...most of them were off of mis-direction involving ap and the rams were intent on stopping ap after his comment earlier in the week and the last time they faced the Vikings he had 200 plus yards. I do believe Patterson took them by a bit of surprise.

    The one sweep he ran out of the backfield went for 62 yards. The runs he had out of the backfield last year mostly were big. St Louis knew it was an option that he would get the ball. He's just that good, whether it is a reverse or he is lined up as a RB.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    The one sweep he ran out of the backfield went for 62 yards. The runs he had out of the backfield last year mostly were big. St Louis knew it was an option that he would get the ball. He's just that good.

    I agree with u that he is really really good. I just think losing ap and becoming the main ( only) focus of every team will be tough.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Could be true. I won't pretend to be some NFL guru, either. I just can't see a RB being worth 3.

    I think NE also factors into the overreaction. If Minny was playing Oak or Buffalo, this movement would've been less I believe.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Could be true. I won't pretend to be some NFL guru, either. I just can't see a RB being worth 3.

    1. I agree no rb is worth 3 but I can't think of a more valuable rb in the NFL than ap

    2. 5 is such a dead # its not really 3
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited September 2014
    Maybe I am mistaken, but last year , didn't his son get abused by his mothers boyfriend ?
    Wtf is going on to this guys kids ?
    What a fucking week for the nfl
  • pokerjoepokerjoe Member
    edited September 2014
    kane wrote: »
    AP worth three points, I wouldn't have thought any RB would be worth that much, I don't care who it is. I'll gladly take six with the Vikings.

    I have him at 1.25 points, fwiw.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    2. 5 is such a dead # its not really 3

    I don't believe the 5 to be such a dead number anymore. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe it to be a key number either, but with a team down by 5 after scoring a TD, when failing to convert the 2-point-conversion to get the score to a field-goal difference, will leave it at 5.
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