Betting Talk

Can we just blindly bet games OVER w/ tot>60 & line>28

helmuthelmut Senior Member
edited September 2014 in Sports Betting
In the last three years there have been 49 games with the overs going 33-16 (67%). My thinking was that with a big total and a big spread it indicates that the big dog has some potential to score and they almost always do. Three games this weekend fall into this category (Baylor vs. Buffalo, Oregon vs. Wyoming, Texas A&M vs. Rice).

9/1/2012 Southern California (-43) Hawaii 49-10 (O/U 62) UNDER
9/1/2012 Oklahoma (-29.5) Texas El Paso 24-7 (O/U 63) UNDER
9/1/2012 Oregon (-37.5) Arkansas St. 57-34 (O/U 70) OVER
9/8/2012 Oregon (-34) Fresno St. 42-25 (O/U 77) UNDER
9/8/2012 Arkansas (-30) Louisiana Monroe 31-34 (O/U 61) OVER
9/15/2012 Texas Tech (-32.5) New Mexico 49-14 (O/U 65) UNDER
9/22/2012 Tennessee (-31.5) Akron 47-26 (O/U 65) OVER
9/29/2012 Oregon (-30.5) Washington St. 51-26 (O/U 73) OVER
10/20/2012 Louisiana Tech (-30) Idaho 70-28 (O/U 73) OVER
10/27/2012 Oregon (-47) Colorado 70-14 (O/U 67.5) OVER
10/27/2012 Louisiana Tech (-28.5) New Mexico St. 28-14 (O/U 76) UNDER
11/3/2012 Louisiana Tech (-30.5) Texas San Antonio 51-27 (O/U 71.5) OVER
11/10/2012 Oregon (-31) California 59-17 (O/U 66.5) OVER
11/10/2012 Arizona (-29) Colorado 56-31 (O/U 65.5) OVER
8/31/2013 Texas A&M (-30) Rice 52-31 (O/U 71.5) OVER
8/31/2013 Nebraska (-31) Wyoming 37-34 (O/U 65.5) OVER
9/7/2013 Baylor (-28.5) Buffalo 70-13 (O/U 67.5) OVER
9/7/2013 Wyoming (-28) Idaho 42-10 (O/U 63.5) UNDER
9/14/2013 Florida St. (-35) Nevada 62-7 (O/U 60.5) OVER
9/14/2013 Oregon (-28) Tennessee 59-14 (O/U 68) OVER
9/21/2013 Georgia (-34) North Texas 45-21 (O/U 64) OVER
9/21/2013 Baylor (-30.5) Louisiana Monroe 70-7 (O/U 74.5) OVER
9/21/2013 UCLA (-44) New Mexico St. 59-13 (O/U 66.5) OVER
9/28/2013 Oregon (-38.5) California 55-16 (O/U 81.5) UNDER
10/5/2013 Oregon (-37.5) Colorado 57-16 (O/U 69) OVER
10/5/2013 Baylor (-30) West Virginia 73-42 (O/U 69) OVER
10/'12/2013 Arizona St. (-28.5) Colorado 54-13 (O/U 68) UNDER
10/19/2013 Oregon (-40) Washington St. 62-38 (O/U 71.5) OVER
10/19/2013 Baylor (-32) Iowa St. 71-7 (O/U 76) OVER
10/26/2013 Northern Illinois (-32.5) Eastern Michigan 59-20 (O/U 67.5) OVER
10/26/2013 Washington (-28) California 41-17 (O/U 66.5) UNDER
10/26/2013 Baylor (-34.5) Kansas 59-14 (O/U 65.5) OVER
11/2/2013 Toledo (-30.5) Eastern Michigan 55-16 (O/U 66.5) OVER
11/2/2013 Texas A&M (-47.5) Texas El Paso 57-7 (O/U 78) UNDER
11/2/2013 Louisiana Lafayette (-32.5) New Mexico St. 17-35 (O/U 67.5) UNDER
11/9/2013 Washington (-30) Colorado 59-7 (O/U 63.5) OVER
11/16/2013 East Carolina (-28) UAB 63-14 (O/U 67.5) OVER
11/16/2013 Baylor (-28) Texas Tech 63-34 (O/U 85) OVER
11/16/2013 Oregon (-28.5) Utah 44-21 (O/U 63.5) OVER
11/16/2013 Ohio St. (-33.5) Illinois 60-35 (O/U 68.5) OVER
11/16/2013 Mississippi (-28) Troy 51-21 (O/U 69.5) OVER
11/23/2013 Ohio St. (-32) Indiana 42-14 (O/U 79.5) UNDER
11/23/2013 Florida St. (-59) Idaho 80-14 (O/U 70) OVER
11/23/2013 Fresno St. (-34.5) New Mexico 69-28 (O/U 68.5) OVER
11/26/2013 Northern Illinois (-35.5) Western Michigan 33-14 (O/U 64) UNDER
11/30/2013 Boise St. (-38) New Mexico 45-17 (O/U 69) UNDER
12/7/2013 Florida St. (-30) Duke 45-7 (O/U 66) UNDER
8/31/2014 Baylor (-32) Southern Methodist 45-0 (O/U 75) UNDER
9/6/2014 Auburn (-33.5) San Jose St. 59-13 (O/U 67) OVER

Comments

  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    How about the dogs Team Totals in those situations can you get those results?
  • white broncowhite bronco Member
    edited September 2014
    If you eliminate Baylor and Oregon games, which combined for 14-3 to the over and represents 35% of your already tiny sample size, then the record becomes 19-13. In memory, that Arkansas-ULM game went to overtime and would have gone under without it. Perhaps there are other OT games on this list?

    I'll say this would be an unwise strategy.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    Wraps, I've broken down the above games with team totals. You'll have to do the won/loss record yourself but the numbers should be close to what they were offering. (Split the total in half then add half the spread of the favorite to get that team total and subtract half the spread from half the total to get the underdog team total)

    Numbers at the end of each line.

    FAVORITE UNDERDOG TOTAL
    9/1/2012 Southern California (-43) Hawaii 49-10 (O/U 62) UNDER 52.5 9.5 62
    9/1/2012 Oklahoma (-29.5) Texas El Paso 24-7 (O/U 63) UNDER 46 17 63
    9/1/2012 Oregon (-37.5) Arkansas St. 57-34 (O/U 70) OVER 53.5 16.5 70
    9/8/2012 Oregon (-34) Fresno St. 42-25 (O/U 77) UNDER 55.5 21.5 77
    9/8/2012 Arkansas (-30) Louisiana Monroe 31-34 (O/U 61) OVER 45.5 15.5 61
    9/15/2012 Texas Tech (-32.5) New Mexico 49-14 (O/U 65) UNDER 48.5 16.5 65
    9/22/2012 Tennessee (-31.5) Akron 47-26 (O/U 65) OVER 48 17 65
    9/29/2012 Oregon (-30.5) Washington St. 51-26 (O/U 73) OVER 51.5 21.5 73
    10/20/2012 Louisiana Tech (-30) Idaho 70-28 (O/U 73) OVER 51.5 21.5 73
    10/27/2012 Oregon (-47) Colorado 70-14 (O/U 67.5) OVER 57 10 67
    10/27/2012 Louisiana Tech (-28.5) New Mexico St. 28-14 (O/U 76) UNDER 52 24 76
    11/3/2012 Louisiana Tech (-30.5) Texas San Antonio 51-27 (O/U 71.5) OVER 50.5 20.5 71
    11/10/2012 Oregon (-31) California 59-17 (O/U 66.5) OVER 48.5 17.5 66
    11/10/2012 Arizona (-29) Colorado 56-31 (O/U 65.5) OVER 47 18 65
    8/31/2013 Texas A&M (-30) Rice 52-31 (O/U 71.5) OVER 50.5 20.5 71
    8/31/2013 Nebraska (-31) Wyoming 37-34 (O/U 65.5) OVER 48 17 65
    9/7/2013 Baylor (-28.5) Buffalo 70-13 (O/U 67.5) OVER 47.5 19.5 67
    9/7/2013 Wyoming (-28) Idaho 42-10 (O/U 63.5) UNDER 45.5 17.5 63
    9/14/2013 Florida St. (-35) Nevada 62-7 (O/U 60.5) OVER 47.5 12.5 60
    9/14/2013 Oregon (-28) Tennessee 59-14 (O/U 68) OVER 48 20 68
    9/21/2013 Georgia (-34) North Texas 45-21 (O/U 64) OVER 49 15 64
    9/21/2013 Baylor (-30.5) Louisiana Monroe 70-7 (O/U 74.5) OVER 52 22 74
    9/21/2013 UCLA (-44) New Mexico St. 59-13 (O/U 66.5) OVER 55 11 66
    9/28/2013 Oregon (-38.5) California 55-16 (O/U 81.5) UNDER 59.5 21.5 81
    10/5/2013 Oregon (-37.5) Colorado 57-16 (O/U 69) OVER 53 16 69
    10/5/2013 Baylor (-30) West Virginia 73-42 (O/U 69) OVER 49.5 19.5 69
    10/'12/2013 Arizona St. (-28.5) Colorado 54-13 (O/U 68) UNDER 48 20 68
    10/19/2013 Oregon (-40) Washington St. 62-38 (O/U 71.5) OVER 55.5 15.5 71
    10/19/2013 Baylor (-32) Iowa St. 71-7 (O/U 76) OVER 54 22 76
    10/26/2013 Northern Illinois (-32.5) Eastern Michigan 59-20 (O/U 67.5) OVER 49.5 17.5 67
    10/26/2013 Washington (-28) California 41-17 (O/U 66.5) UNDER 47 19 66
    10/26/2013 Baylor (-34.5) Kansas 59-14 (O/U 65.5) OVER 49.5 15.5 65
    11/2/2013 Toledo (-30.5) Eastern Michigan 55-16 (O/U 66.5) OVER 48 18 66
    11/2/2013 Texas A&M (-47.5) Texas El Paso 57-7 (O/U 78) UNDER 62.5 15.5 78
    11/2/2013 Louisiana Lafayette (-32.5) New Mexico St. 17-35 (O/U 67.5) UNDER 49.5 17.5 67
    11/9/2013 Washington (-30) Colorado 59-7 (O/U 63.5) OVER 46.5 16.5 63
    11/16/2013 East Carolina (-28) UAB 63-14 (O/U 67.5) OVER 47.5 19.5 67
    11/16/2013 Baylor (-28) Texas Tech 63-34 (O/U 85) OVER 56.5 28.5 85
    11/16/2013 Oregon (-28.5) Utah 44-21 (O/U 63.5) OVER 45.5 17.5 63
    11/16/2013 Ohio St. (-33.5) Illinois 60-35 (O/U 68.5) OVER 50.5 17.5 68
    11/16/2013 Mississippi (-28) Troy 51-21 (O/U 69.5) OVER 48.5 20.5 69
    11/23/2013 Ohio St. (-32) Indiana 42-14 (O/U 79.5) UNDER 55.5 23.5 79
    11/23/2013 Florida St. (-59) Idaho 80-14 (O/U 70) OVER 64.5 5.5 70
    11/23/2013 Fresno St. (-34.5) New Mexico 69-28 (O/U 68.5) OVER 51 17 68
    11/26/2013 Northern Illinois (-35.5) Western Michigan 33-14 (O/U 64) UNDER 49.5 14.5 64
    11/30/2013 Boise St. (-38) New Mexico 45-17 (O/U 69) UNDER 53.5 15.5 69
    12/7/2013 Florida St. (-30) Duke 45-7 (O/U 66) UNDER 48 18 66
    8/31/2014 Baylor (-32) Southern Methodist 45-0 (O/U 75) UNDER 53.5 21.5 75
    9/6/2014 Auburn (-33.5) San Jose St. 59-13 (O/U 67) OVER 50 17 67
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    thanks ED I came up with 24-24-1 so it's not a good strategy to bet dog over team totals in that situation
  • eug44eug44 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    If you eliminate Baylor and Oregon games, which combined for 14-3 to the over and represents 35% of your already tiny sample size, then the record becomes 19-13. In memory, that Arkansas-ULM game went to overtime and would have gone under without it. Perhaps there are other OT games on this list?

    I'll say this would be an unwise strategy.

    action reverse Oregon and Baylor?
  • white broncowhite bronco Member
    edited September 2014
    If you eliminate Baylor and Oregon games, which combined for 14-3 to the over and represents 35% of your already tiny sample size, then the record becomes 19-13. In memory, that Arkansas-ULM game went to overtime and would have gone under without it. Perhaps there are other OT games on this list?

    I'll say this would be an unwise strategy.

    Well, I guess it's fine on Baylor and Oregon games. :)
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