Going winless in preseason
sosoangry
Senior Member
I've written before that about the only thing you can really take seriously in NFL preseason is if a team goes winless. Yes, there have been head coaches in the past like Marv Levy who didn't care about the preseason, but in the recent past most coaches want to at least notch one "fake" win under their belt (usually in the third week) if not more.
That said I looked to see what 0-fer preseason teams did over the last 5 NFL preseasons. There have been 13 teams that have gone winless since 2009. In their subsequent regular seasons, these teams have gone 8-8 SU on average, with the best getting 9 wins and the worst getting 7. Pretty amazing in their consistent mediocre/average performance, not too bad, not too good. Against the spread, these teams have gone 7-9 ATS on average, similar to SU at near .500 but with more variance as the best team(s) had 11 spread wins and the worst had just 4 spread wins in the season.
With the close of preseason last night, we have two winless teams heading into the regular season, the Colts and Cowboys. Interesting. Assuming the Cowboys get 8 wins this season wouldn't be surprising given Vegas has their win total at 7.5, and frankly 8 games might win it in the NFC East division. But the Colts getting just 8 games would be much more surprising given Vegas has their win total at 9.5 and many expect them to improve with Luck's further maturation. We'll see, but based on this admittedly small sample analysis, Colts UNDER 9.5 wins for the season looks pretty good.
That said I looked to see what 0-fer preseason teams did over the last 5 NFL preseasons. There have been 13 teams that have gone winless since 2009. In their subsequent regular seasons, these teams have gone 8-8 SU on average, with the best getting 9 wins and the worst getting 7. Pretty amazing in their consistent mediocre/average performance, not too bad, not too good. Against the spread, these teams have gone 7-9 ATS on average, similar to SU at near .500 but with more variance as the best team(s) had 11 spread wins and the worst had just 4 spread wins in the season.
With the close of preseason last night, we have two winless teams heading into the regular season, the Colts and Cowboys. Interesting. Assuming the Cowboys get 8 wins this season wouldn't be surprising given Vegas has their win total at 7.5, and frankly 8 games might win it in the NFC East division. But the Colts getting just 8 games would be much more surprising given Vegas has their win total at 9.5 and many expect them to improve with Luck's further maturation. We'll see, but based on this admittedly small sample analysis, Colts UNDER 9.5 wins for the season looks pretty good.