Betting Talk

Reg Season Wins

golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
edited July 2014 in Sports Betting
I must be an idiot, was looking at the RSW in NCAAF and FSU at 11.5 stood out, they only play 12 games, undefeated or loser. Is it just me or is this crazy? Someone please tell me the sharp angle or what I am missing.

I love the under 11.5, only one game, qb hurt, etc, in jail, something?

Thanks for any opinions.

Comments

  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    One of my locals has 11 over -130
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Did you hit it yet golfer??
  • marcbryanjacobmarcbryanjacob Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    The mania re SWAT's (I'm trying to get people to use this abbreviation - Season Win Against Totals) never ceases to amaze me. You could lay a -130 this afternoon in bases and cash your ticket and go eat dinner with the winnings. Tying up whatever %BR for 5 months on a 50-50 ball just seems antithetical to smart gambling to me. And the # is where it has to be for a dbl-digit fave in every game. I guess there is the angle of making a bigger than normal bet size play on some too-low over SWAT's and figuring they'll put you in several hedge situations if they get off to great starts (like KC Chiefs LY). Or you could use over SWAT's as Xmas presents for your buddies who are fanatics...
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    I understand what you are saying MBJ, but I certainly wouldn't call FSU over 11 (-130) a 50/50 betting opp. No way this should be less than -180. I keep my bankroll separate from my living expenses. Anything than can increase my bankroll long term, Ill take. Tough to find a better RSW # than what golfer has in front of him. Understand everybody has their own strategys but I think he should hit it for what he can get down. Respect your opinion though MJB.
  • bcl4bcl4 Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    marcbryanjacob wrote: »
    The mania re SWAT's (I'm trying to get people to use this abbreviation - Season Win Against Totals) never ceases to amaze me. You could lay a -130 this afternoon in bases and cash your ticket and go eat dinner with the winnings. Tying up whatever %BR for 5 months on a 50-50 ball just seems antithetical to smart gambling to me. And the # is where it has to be for a dbl-digit fave in every game. I guess there is the angle of making a bigger than normal bet size play on some too-low over SWAT's and figuring they'll put you in several hedge situations if they get off to great starts (like KC Chiefs LY). Or you could use over SWAT's as Xmas presents for your buddies who are fanatics...

    also many people can get down on credit with a local...
  • marcbryanjacobmarcbryanjacob Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Ya OV 11 (-130) would be at least 20 cents the best of it according to what I've seen. WestGate (formerly LVH) had FSU 11.5 un-120 ov ev as their opener. To pickup a half gm and get the push on 11 should cost at least 50 cents and maybe up to 80 cents for a coll tot jammed all the way to one end of the spectrum, challenging the perfecto. So the math is very tempting on that. And if they go 11-0 you could setup a middle or hedge ML on the Gators.
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