RAS Survey
eug44
Senior Member
I really commend you guys for running your service like a really business and reaching out for client feedback! Wonder if RJ Bell sends his subscribers service survey's? 
if i may ask, are you really looking to change business direction with what you do with the service? you asked a number of questions regarding clients obtaining your #, is there some sort of a plan to prevent lines from moving, head fakes? or just helping clients get a better #?
if i may ask, are you really looking to change business direction with what you do with the service? you asked a number of questions regarding clients obtaining your #, is there some sort of a plan to prevent lines from moving, head fakes? or just helping clients get a better #?
Comments
people? two years ago I was able to probably get their number 75% of the time, this year maybe 2 games numbers kept moving away from me to make the matter worse and I am not disciplined enough to pay for a service and not bet the games. my understanding with all the big shops and those that mirror them is once someone hits a number it moves automatically even with an api (I might be wrong about this).
I did quick back of the envelope counting a year ago based on SIDES and came up with this:
2011-2012 Sides: Against Closing Line +4.5 units
2012-2013 Sides: Against Closing Line -3.5 units
2013-2014 Sides: Against Closing Line -0.5 units
3 years total with closing lines: +0.5 units
<tbody>
Year
Record
Record vs Close
Record vs 0.5
Record vs 1.0
Record vs 1.5
Record vs 2.0
2013
44-35-0 (6.5)
42-37-0 (2.3)
44-35-0 (6.5)
44-35-0 (6.5)
44-35-0 (6.5)
42-35-2 (4.5)
2012
32-25-0 (3.95)
30-26-1 (0.85)
32-25-0 (3.95)
32-25-0 (3.95)
31-25-1 (2.95)
31-26-0 (1.85)
2011
38-23-1 (13.7)
37-24-1 (11.6)
37-23-2 (12.7)
37-24-1 (11.6)
36-24-2 (10.6)
36-25-1 (9.5)
2010
31-24-1 (6.05)
29-27-0 (-1.35)
30-25-1 (2.95)
30-26-0 (0.7)
29-26-1 (-0.3)
29-27-0 (-1.35)
2009
40-19-0 (22.1)
37-21-1 (14.8)
38-19-2 (19.1)
38-21-0 (15.8)
37-21-1 (14.8)
37-22-0 (13.7)
Total
185-126-2 (52.3)
175-135-3 (28.2)
181-127-5 (45.2)
181-131-1 (38.6)
177-131-5 (34.6)
175-135-3 (28.2)
59.48%
56.45%
58.76%
58.01%
57.46%
56.45%
</tbody>
Those are last five years of RAS CFB vs release line, 0.5 worse, 1.0 worse, 1.5 worse, 2.0 worse, and closing line. Plays involving FCS teams not included. Units in parenthesis. Not all 1/2 points are of equal value in football, especially with sides and totals being lumped together, but it is important to look at results other than just vs the close as in most cases more favorable numbers than the closing line are attainable between release and start of game, especially for subscribers. 2011 and 2009 were outstanding years that will be hard to duplicate in today's market. 2013 season is likely the most relevant predictive indicator going forward.
Will have something up soon, likely early next week, just finalizing some details.
Ed, Do you have this same info for CBB?
Thanks!
Here are the last 3 years of CBB since going to sides and first 10 weeks only:
<tbody>
Year
Record
Record vs Close
Record vs 0.5
Record vs 1.0
Record vs 1.5
2013-14
91-71-4 (13.15)
85-79-2 (-2.2)
89-75-2 (6.2)
88-77-1 (3)
86-78-2 (-0.1)
2012-13
90-52-4 (35.3)
79-62-5 (11.2)
83-56-7 (22.9)
80-62-4 (12.2)
78-65-3 (6.9)
2011-12
74-49-5 (23.45)
68-58-2 (7.55)
70-54-4 (13.95)
68-58-2 (7.55)
68-60-0 (5.35)
3-year total
255-172-13 (71.9) 59.71%
232-199-9 (16.6) 53.82%
242-185-13 (43) 56.67%
236-197-7 (22.8) 54.50%
232-203-5 (12.2)
53.33%
</tbody>
As you can see, the results change pretty dramatically in basketball with every 1/2 point. The only good news here is it appears to be manageable for the majority of subscribers to get within 1 point or better of the release line on a consistent basis.
I agree. It's an extremely classy move on Ed's part to be fully transparent in breaking down his results like that.
Is it possible to break it down further and show results for sides and results for totals in these categories?
you not able ot get the released lines?
Having more trouble than ever before and still have all the same books. I have one book that's still good. Gonna have to fire there. I like having 2
LOL. Not a fucking chance.
Maybe not, I really don't know. Guess it just depends on how much RAS wants to make and what people
are willing to pay. From that, you can figure out what direction to go and how to go about doing it. But 1600 bucks isn't enough to weed many people out. Even 400$ a game would be a good investment in the long run for the cost of the service. There hasn't been much conversation on here about the idea and thought it would be interesting to talk about.
On another note, I hope this talk of greatness doesn't jinx our season:)
What happens when your local cuts you off after week 1?
I'd estimate RAS ev at maybe +20-25 units for basketball/football combined. I'd want a roll close to 7 figures and a ton of outs taking at least 5k-10k to justify that.
Your exactly right. That is the most concerning of all to me. Going to be hard for anyone to bet that much for an extended period of time
That would be the only reason why it would be tough to do. Five years ago people were lining up to pay 10,000 for just college basketball. 20,000 for both football and basketball I wouldn't think they would have any trouble getting enough sign-ups far. The problem with 20 grand for the package Is anyone who pays 20 grand far the package is going to move lines. Hence the same problem.
Sign me up sir!!! I couldn't believe that 80% are able to get your #