Betting Talk

Lock up the American league West

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Comments

  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Actually Ken Harrleson was really popular when doing the Red Sox play by play on Channel 38. His slogan was "keep your Sox on". I'm sure that he'd be selling beer if it weren't for his prior history as a MLB journeyman.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Actually Ken Harrleson was really popular when doing the Red Sox play by play on Channel 38. His slogan was "keep your Sox on". I'm sure that he'd be selling beer if it weren't for his prior history as a MLB journeyman.

    I know im in the super minority here but I actually do like him. Opposite of what u would think from a 30 year old like myself who believes in the "new way of baseball thinking"

    His WIKI page is very interesting. Sounds like a huge flake who got hurt in his prime coming off of 2 huge seasons. Led the league in RBI in 1968 which even then you could tell how much of a farce that stat is. Notice he hit behind YAZ who just happened to lead the league in OBP by 35 pts (YAZ .426 next closest was Rose at .391)
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited July 2014
    OT on a side note on the A's announcers, the color guy is Ray fosse , he was destin for greatness before Charlie Hustle broke his collar bone in the All Star game.

    I have meet him a few times , he still holds a grudge against Rose, and I mean still furious.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Re: the A's and their lack of playoff success, I have yet to see any evidence that there are specific factors that cause a team to do well in the regular season but not in the playoffs, with the exception of very specific elements like the Nats shutting down Strasburg for the year pre-playoffs.

    Back when his sports content was actually useful and not click-bait garbage, Nate Silver introduced a stat called "secret sauce" on Baseball Prospectus, theorizing that teams with high strikeout rates, good closers, and good defensive efficiency would succeed in the playoffs compared to teams without those factors. But several years later, BP retired that stat because it didn't turn out to be predictive out of sample.

    With as much parity as there is in baseball and with the short playoff series, the best team doesn't necessarily win. Over the last 10 years, the average 2nd wild card team (or what would be the 2nd wild card if that playoff format existed at the time) had 89 wins, or a .549 win rate. The average LCS team with the lesser record had 92 wins, .568. It's tough to compare World Series opponents since the AL has been the stronger league, but to simplify, we'll assume the average World Series opponent has 95 wins, or .586.

    Analyzing the winning chances of a fantastic team, say 105 wins (.648), using Bill James's simplistic log5 method, our 105 win team will only win the WS about 31.4% of the time they have WS HFA and about 30.3% of the time they don't have WS HFA. And a 105 win season is fantastic--since MLB went to a 162 game season in 1961, only 9 teams have managed 105 wins or better, or roughly .66% of team seasons.

    There's a famous quote from Billy Beane about how "my shit doesn't work in the playoffs," but I've never heard him theorize why, and my guess is that he's commenting more on the small sample size of games as opposed to anything about how he builds his teams.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    OT on a side note on the A's announcers, the color guy is Ray fosse , he was destin for greatness before Charlie Hustle broke his collar bone in the All Star game.

    I have meet him a few times , he still holds a grudge against Rose, and I mean still furious.

    No the guy I'm talking is AA and wears sunglasses in the booth the one time I seen him. I know Ray Fosse and like him and listen to him after the game but there's another guy. I'll find out his name. Watch so many games many I have the wrong west coast team.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    No the guy I'm talking is AA and wears sunglasses in the booth the one time I seen him. I know Ray Fosse and like him and listen to him after the game but there's another guy. I'll find out his name. Watch so many games many I have the wrong west coast team.

    Excuse the English playing poker and posting not good.
  • pettifoggerpettifogger Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Looked at the current MLB stats for batting , pitching and fielding . If you average each team's ratings the top 3 MLB teams are----
    Angels 7.6
    Mariners 8.1
    A's 8.6

    Agree that A's are division favorites but it may not be a cakewalk.

    Surprisingly the AL West has 2 of the bottom 3 teams also
    Astros 23.6
    Rangers 23.3
  • pettifoggerpettifogger Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    One conclusion from the previous post is that Texas may consider dumping some salary . Beltre-17 mil Choo-14 mil or Rios- 13.5 mil.
    Wonder if the Braves or Cards could use some offense .
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited July 2014
    Billy beane is a genius.
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