So this is where we submit BS lines to "prove" that we're beating the market? At time of post, Atl was -137, Cubs were 145, Cin 105, Min 122, and then I just stopped looking because these are ridiculous.
Bitch when I don't post.
Bitch when I do post.
Clean the sand out your vagina and make up your mind.
Weekdays all my plays are in by 6:45 am EST.
So I ask forgiveness if the first thing I do isn't posting them on here.
Which one of us is it again that has been proven to be a fucking liar?
If you want to actually prove to people on here that you can consistently beat the market, then yes the first thing you should do is post them on here. But we know that won't happen, because if you could you wouldn't be on here bragging about how easy it is and spouting off nonsense about openers being more efficient than closers and asking why "the books" don't pay RAS to go away.
Sorry, missed a fee days here. This has been something I have been thinking about on/off for a month. Assumption:
1. Openers are not nearly as efficient as closers.
But why would that be? Why would books that have an infinite BR compared to their clientele lack the resources to hire the best? This thought process was running congruent with a thought wondering why books just don't pay RAS to go away in college hoops (can't believe no one challenged my markets can't be beat with them. Obviously represents an inefficient market, for one guy at least). So I reached the conclusion, which I submit for consideration, the books need action. What happens if openers are so sharp action suffers? But the RAS answer I would think is that 98% of the people winning will lose it back at some point, 4.54% for reason, yeah? And it ties into
They can't afford to hire RAS. Linesmakers don't make millions. There is no incentive on either side for an arrangement like this either.
2. I'm not moving lines. But when you (collective) suggest that handicapping games is the way to go, you are telling me to take on people far smarter than me with much deeper pockets. (Check out Google and intellectual humility) no fucking way I am ever going to go against the best modelers in the world. But I will happily go on with my bottom feeder life recognizing the tendencies of the Market (aka the aforementioned modelers). Which brings us to
.
This doesn't make any sense, if the market is so efficient why are those lines still available? It takes a very small amount of money to move them. I don't grasp how you handicap the market as opposed to the teams, if the market is driving prices towards fair value you'd have to know what fv is in order to get in ahead of the moves.
If you are simply betting +110 when the market is -105/-105 fine, I made a living like that for years. But, there really aren't any books that will let you do that for very long anymore.
3. That goes back to 1 and completes our journey along this circular route to form a point. CLV? I get to where I think the sharps will end up. Not giving away the obvious advantage translational smarts will afford anyone. So if I, former college dropout bottom feeder that I am, knows where a line is heading 66% of the time (current % over 250 plays or so) why don't the books. See 1. above.
Bitch when I don't post.
Bitch when I do post.
Clean the sand out your vagina and make up your mind.
Weekdays all my plays are in by 6:45 am EST.
So I ask forgiveness if the first thing I do isn't posting them on here.
Which one of us is it again that has been proven to be a fucking liar?
Posting lines that aren't available is absolutely useless. As is this entire thread.
Sorry, missed a fee days here. This has been something I have been thinking about on/off for a month. Assumption:
1. Openers are not nearly as efficient as closers.
But why would that be? Why would books that have an infinite BR compared to their clientele lack the resources to hire the best? This thought process was running congruent with a thought wondering why books just don't pay RAS to go away in college hoops (can't believe no one challenged my markets can't be beat with them. Obviously represents an inefficient market, for one guy at least). So I reached the conclusion, which I submit for consideration, the books need action. What happens if openers are so sharp action suffers? But the RAS answer I would think is that 98% of the people winning will lose it back at some point, 4.54% for reason, yeah? And it ties into
Your implication here is that books are intentionally making soft openers to attract bettors?
They can't afford to hire RAS. Linesmakers don't make millions. There is no incentive on either side for an arrangement like this either.
This doesn't make any sense, if the market is so efficient why are those lines still available? It takes a very small amount of money to move them. I don't grasp how you handicap the market as opposed to the teams, if the market is driving prices towards fair value you'd have to know what fv is in order to get in ahead of the moves.
If you are simply betting +110 when the market is -105/-105 fine, I made a living like that for years. But, there really aren't any books that will let you do that for very long anymore.
Enjoy your millions.
Starting from the end, no need for potshots here D. You know I have tons of respect for you and your insights. There is a reason I kept reminding you i am a bottom feeder. Never will generate millions. Never claimed it will.
Back to top. What do you figure books clear? Obviously enough to stay in business, yeah? Would you be able to expand on the lack of incentive on both sides, I'm not quite understanding.
Can we both agree the amount of money matters less then the source of the money, with obvious limitations? Again I say, you might be thinking on too grand of a scale.
I've been moving more and more to the theoretical concerning sports betting. How to reduce it to a level that a dipshit like myself can still succeed. Prob should have used a ; there as the second point is more to enforce the first but not quite a stand alone thought/sentence. How do we arrive at a point where being wrong more often carries less of a penalty? Pretty much have arrived at that point as far as MLB is concerned (so to the relief of all parties will post 2 or 3 more times in this thread and end it). Was just thinking maybe I should post everything I bet when I bet it and get enough followers to really fuck up the signal with some noise, pickin up what I'm puttin down there? Because, I believe at least, we reach a critical point when the complexity of systems (not systems like chasing or whatever, but methodologies maybe) where the amount of harm from data or complexity outweighs the potential benefit.
My goal is not to become rich or do this for a living, those things will never happen. Just looking to produce somewhat reliable revenue streams.
Where's the potshot. You didn't claim it will make millions, but if you can do what you claim you should easily make millions. Do you see?
Sportsbook owners make millions, linesmen not so much. They throw up some numbers with low limits and let bettors sharpen it from there. This is obviously more cost effective to them than spending millions on a linesman. How much do you think Bookmaker would have to pay Edward to go set their College Basketball lines? A shitload more than they would save having slightly sharper lines on open. Probably more than their entire employee budget for the year. Obviously they won't offer him that much, so why would he go work there when he can make way more betting and working for himself.
Money is money. There is more sharp money in the marketplace than square, but if you open a new pinnacle account right now and max something their software will still move the line the full margin. Their traders may adjust further if it's from a sharp account but money is still going to move the line.
I have no idea what the rest of your post means. The basics of it come down that the market will drive lines towards fair value, if you know what fair value is you should be ready to get rich. Otherwise I have no idea what you are doing.
Where's the potshot. You didn't claim it will make millions, but if you can do what you claim you should easily make millions. Do you see?
Sportsbook owners make millions, linesmen not so much. They throw up some numbers with low limits and let bettors sharpen it from there. This is obviously more cost effective to them than spending millions on a linesman. How much do you think Bookmaker would have to pay Edward to go set their College Basketball lines? A shitload more than they would save having slightly sharper lines on open. Probably more than their entire employee budget for the year. Obviously they won't offer him that much, so why would he go work there when he can make way more betting and working for himself.
Money is money. There is more sharp money in the marketplace than square, but if you open a new pinnacle account right now and max something their software will still move the line the full margin. Their traders may adjust further if it's from a sharp account but money is still going to move the line.
I have no idea what the rest of your post means. The basics of it come down that the market will drive lines towards fair value, if you know what fair value is you should be ready to get rich. Otherwise I have no idea what you are doing.
I see there are severe limitations facing anyone looking to make millions. Yes, I see that what I am doing will produce a decent profit, but we both know the current atmosphere renders that impossible the millions thing I mean.
Thanks for expanding on that. Makes sense now. And made me laugh as well. Not employ, just pay him to take some time off.
Agreed on that to a point. A new account I could see that. But once a player establishes any ability or lack of ability (no more CLV talk) the effects will be different.
I hear ya pardner, makes no sense when I'm writing. Completely agree with your point about market and FV. However, was just tryin to illustrate that when 100% of bettors attack the problem the same way progress ends. And that is what we have. The focus shouldn't be on winning, ya feel that, Good Vibration - Marky Mark style? Just light a candle and meditate on that. Like the forensic accounting class I'm in now, we were talking how to detect, limit and prevent fraud abuse and the government role in it (shouldn't be one). Business should build their system with fraud in mind and limit the damage that be done. Installing regulations is reactive and looks at ending a practice that will never end instead of using past information to insulate against the results. Limit the damage of the deed instead of looking to eradicate the deed? Does that make more sense? Alone in that as well, classmates not seeing it, neither is prof.
No because they aren't the same thing. Pinny/Bookmaker will take action. They just wont take action from 2,000 people trying to bet the same line at the same price at the same time.
In conclusion. Lump, sarcasm aside thanks.
Wraps, well aware of the inconsistency of subscribing to EMT while also capping NFL. internal debate is constant.
Those lines were all 5d and/or heritage depending on day most likely between 6:30 and 6:45 am EST.
True to word, unless prompted with something that warrants reply I will exit this thread and cease wasting your time.
Your implication here is that books are intentionally making soft openers to attract bettors?
Devils advocate here, pinnacle has been using limits to make their lines more so on smaller markets than actually setting sharp openers. The only place you could get decent money down on garbage openers was betonline and that is and was a ponzi scheme. (can you still get paid from there?)
A few weeks ago I think Kazmier said he got his check in less than 7 days which I find really odd, since every time I made a withdrawal it took about 28 days to receive it, but always got it. Maybe it's the amount that gets withdrawn plays a factor on the late processing and shipping.
Devils advocate here, pinnacle has been using limits to make their lines more so on smaller markets than actually setting sharp openers. The only place you could get decent money down on garbage openers was betonline and that is and was a ponzi scheme. (can you still get paid from there?)
When could you get decent money down on them. Always been 250 for me.
You can get 8k from bol to cris in a few hours and 8k weekly to Nt/Skrill. If those stop I'll believe they are in trouble, but it's been a while since I've seen any slow pays there.
When could you get decent money down on them. Always been 250 for me.
You can get 8k from bol to cris in a few hours and 8k weekly to Nt/Skrill. If those stop I'll believe they are in trouble, but it's been a while since I've seen any slow pays there.
Decent money for me when I played there was 250 so I couldnt tell you it has been a while. That shows for the most part the places that originate lines just use limits to get to a decent line. There will always be someone willing to bet first which allows the market to dictate prices with zero liability towards the books. Sure they have to have liquidity if a bad beat on the Superbowl happens but there is a reason pinny is still in business even with all the arrests.
I don't consider the $250 BOL's real openers. The second cris posts the real number they move there even if they are way different -- thats not real booking that's a clow show. Cris opens major american sports with at least 2k limits on everything. Pinny is still in business because they take huge action outside the us on soccer and tennis. Their us sports markets are pretty small these days.
Just an update. Implemented many of the tangents referenced herein starting on 6/3. Wanted to update during ASB, but damn I was busy. Anyway, still clicking at beating closers 65%, which will wane over time as full implementation takes over.
+.68 Units from 6/3 through the ASB.
super excited. thanks again to BT for once again improving my ability.
This doesn't make any sense, if the market is so efficient why are those lines still available? It takes a very small amount of money to move them. I don't grasp how you handicap the market as opposed to the teams, if the market is driving prices towards fair value you'd have to know what fv is in order to get in ahead of the moves.
Enjoy your millions.
You aren't too far off on that millions part, save the inherit obstacles of my BR, money management and limits. Other than those, this approach is going to very profitable for years to come.
And I poop on FV. I understand completely what you are saying and it makes sense. My point is get in early and let the market explicitly express that FV and I respond accordingly.
Comments
Bitch when I don't post.
Bitch when I do post.
Clean the sand out your vagina and make up your mind.
Weekdays all my plays are in by 6:45 am EST.
So I ask forgiveness if the first thing I do isn't posting them on here.
Which one of us is it again that has been proven to be a fucking liar?
They can't afford to hire RAS. Linesmakers don't make millions. There is no incentive on either side for an arrangement like this either.
This doesn't make any sense, if the market is so efficient why are those lines still available? It takes a very small amount of money to move them. I don't grasp how you handicap the market as opposed to the teams, if the market is driving prices towards fair value you'd have to know what fv is in order to get in ahead of the moves.
If you are simply betting +110 when the market is -105/-105 fine, I made a living like that for years. But, there really aren't any books that will let you do that for very long anymore.
Enjoy your millions.
Posting lines that aren't available is absolutely useless. As is this entire thread.
Your implication here is that books are intentionally making soft openers to attract bettors?
In case I missed it, where are these #s from? Shouldn't be hard to confirm the validity of them.
Starting from the end, no need for potshots here D. You know I have tons of respect for you and your insights. There is a reason I kept reminding you i am a bottom feeder. Never will generate millions. Never claimed it will.
Back to top. What do you figure books clear? Obviously enough to stay in business, yeah? Would you be able to expand on the lack of incentive on both sides, I'm not quite understanding.
Can we both agree the amount of money matters less then the source of the money, with obvious limitations? Again I say, you might be thinking on too grand of a scale.
I've been moving more and more to the theoretical concerning sports betting. How to reduce it to a level that a dipshit like myself can still succeed. Prob should have used a ; there as the second point is more to enforce the first but not quite a stand alone thought/sentence. How do we arrive at a point where being wrong more often carries less of a penalty? Pretty much have arrived at that point as far as MLB is concerned (so to the relief of all parties will post 2 or 3 more times in this thread and end it). Was just thinking maybe I should post everything I bet when I bet it and get enough followers to really fuck up the signal with some noise, pickin up what I'm puttin down there? Because, I believe at least, we reach a critical point when the complexity of systems (not systems like chasing or whatever, but methodologies maybe) where the amount of harm from data or complexity outweighs the potential benefit.
My goal is not to become rich or do this for a living, those things will never happen. Just looking to produce somewhat reliable revenue streams.
Sportsbook owners make millions, linesmen not so much. They throw up some numbers with low limits and let bettors sharpen it from there. This is obviously more cost effective to them than spending millions on a linesman. How much do you think Bookmaker would have to pay Edward to go set their College Basketball lines? A shitload more than they would save having slightly sharper lines on open. Probably more than their entire employee budget for the year. Obviously they won't offer him that much, so why would he go work there when he can make way more betting and working for himself.
Money is money. There is more sharp money in the marketplace than square, but if you open a new pinnacle account right now and max something their software will still move the line the full margin. Their traders may adjust further if it's from a sharp account but money is still going to move the line.
I have no idea what the rest of your post means. The basics of it come down that the market will drive lines towards fair value, if you know what fair value is you should be ready to get rich. Otherwise I have no idea what you are doing.
I see there are severe limitations facing anyone looking to make millions. Yes, I see that what I am doing will produce a decent profit, but we both know the current atmosphere renders that impossible the millions thing I mean.
Thanks for expanding on that. Makes sense now. And made me laugh as well. Not employ, just pay him to take some time off.
Agreed on that to a point. A new account I could see that. But once a player establishes any ability or lack of ability (no more CLV talk) the effects will be different.
I hear ya pardner, makes no sense when I'm writing. Completely agree with your point about market and FV. However, was just tryin to illustrate that when 100% of bettors attack the problem the same way progress ends. And that is what we have. The focus shouldn't be on winning, ya feel that, Good Vibration - Marky Mark style? Just light a candle and meditate on that. Like the forensic accounting class I'm in now, we were talking how to detect, limit and prevent fraud abuse and the government role in it (shouldn't be one). Business should build their system with fraud in mind and limit the damage that be done. Installing regulations is reactive and looks at ending a practice that will never end instead of using past information to insulate against the results. Limit the damage of the deed instead of looking to eradicate the deed? Does that make more sense? Alone in that as well, classmates not seeing it, neither is prof.
Stop playing around in major markets and bet props/small market stuff. I just solved your problem, your welcome.
They just simply refuse action from anyone playing his plays. Problem solved, no expenditures necessary.
Do you see how this statement runs incongruent to the one about making millions?
Wraps, well aware of the inconsistency of subscribing to EMT while also capping NFL. internal debate is constant.
Those lines were all 5d and/or heritage depending on day most likely between 6:30 and 6:45 am EST.
True to word, unless prompted with something that warrants reply I will exit this thread and cease wasting your time.
Devils advocate here, pinnacle has been using limits to make their lines more so on smaller markets than actually setting sharp openers. The only place you could get decent money down on garbage openers was betonline and that is and was a ponzi scheme. (can you still get paid from there?)
A few weeks ago I think Kazmier said he got his check in less than 7 days which I find really odd, since every time I made a withdrawal it took about 28 days to receive it, but always got it. Maybe it's the amount that gets withdrawn plays a factor on the late processing and shipping.
When could you get decent money down on them. Always been 250 for me.
You can get 8k from bol to cris in a few hours and 8k weekly to Nt/Skrill. If those stop I'll believe they are in trouble, but it's been a while since I've seen any slow pays there.
Decent money for me when I played there was 250 so I couldnt tell you it has been a while. That shows for the most part the places that originate lines just use limits to get to a decent line. There will always be someone willing to bet first which allows the market to dictate prices with zero liability towards the books. Sure they have to have liquidity if a bad beat on the Superbowl happens but there is a reason pinny is still in business even with all the arrests.
+.68 Units from 6/3 through the ASB.
super excited. thanks again to BT for once again improving my ability.
You aren't too far off on that millions part, save the inherit obstacles of my BR, money management and limits. Other than those, this approach is going to very profitable for years to come.
And I poop on FV. I understand completely what you are saying and it makes sense. My point is get in early and let the market explicitly express that FV and I respond accordingly.