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  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Pretty interesting and makes sense, I do suspect the reason/reasons are a bit more self-serving than just looking out for less sophisticated bettor's interests.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Pretty interesting and makes sense, I do suspect the reason/reasons are a bit more self-serving than just looking out for less sophisticated bettor's interests.

    While obviously no one is throwing money away, my opinion is even if you only sold before the release and gave access to the release page etc, it just becomes more trouble than it's worth. Having to explain the release procedure, then getting angry emails when the client cant get the line at their one sportsbook because it moved too fast, etc. Just too much of hassle like I said.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    You could probably find an experienced customer service rep to handle these situations (at a cost of course). There'd still likely be some hassle involved when people insisted on speaking to the owner or insisted on getting their money back, things like that. But enough speculation, I'll wait to hear to BG's or RAS' answer :)
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    Shorter term subscriptions are definitely more hassle, and because of line movement the picks don't have enough shelf life to consider daily packages. With that said, we just went ahead and added a 14 day option.

    Certainly there are more things that could be done from a sales & marketing perspective to increase revenue but for both self serving and ethical reasons, we don't.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I'm surprised he has anything less then the full year with this price and the length of the season IMO it's a bargain. Also he says and it's not in stone he should have around 15 plays a week. $1700 and change is a good deal. The man is proven winner and this isn't your $49 a week tout. I'll go low ball and say you can be a $300 a game bettor and do very well. The only thing I would hope that he does and this is from a non subscriber because I didn't see it on his web site when last year he felt the market wasn't to his liking he Quit up 30 something units so if the same thing happens this year if I was a subscriber I would want him to do the same thing if he felt his edge was gone.

    I'm pretty sure he kept betting but didn't post. I thought he posted that in one of his discussion threads.
  • Gordon GekkoGordon Gekko Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    I'd like to purchase until August 10th?
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    I'd like to purchase until August 10th?

    Please contact admin@bgpicks.com with any sales inquiries.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Just signed up for the full season... Wasn't around earlier, so I missed today's play.

    Ed, where do I fill out my email and phone for texts?
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    underwraps wrote: »
    Just signed up for the full season... Wasn't around earlier, so I missed today's play.

    Ed, where do I fill out my email and phone for texts?

    Please contact admin@bgpicks.com with any and all inquiries.
  • BigKahunaBigKahuna Banned
    edited April 2014
    Posting plays n a forum and running a service with paid subscribers two different animals.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    Posting plays n a forum and running a service with paid subscribers two different animals.

    Which animal is posting on the forums and which animal is running a service?

    I'll hang up and listen
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    BigKahuna wrote: »
    Posting plays n a forum and running a service with paid subscribers two different animals.

    I'm gonna go out on a limb and simply assume he'll continue to use the exact same logic and reasoning for all of his plays. See value, post the play on a forum or for your subs. same difference.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    There is a negative side to running a service that is endorsed by who many including myself consider one of the top handicappers in the world. Sixth Sense is considered +EV long term. If you started to play his plays since the endorsement you are now down 80%. So if you had a $100K bankroll which the sophisticated bettor would have you have lost $80K leaving you $20K. Even a prorated return on investment does not help much when you have lost $80K. Just the flip side of it. I'm pretty sure that won't happen again, but people do have a right to be agitated when its paid for vs. posted for free.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    There is a negative side to running a service that is endorsed by who many including myself consider one of the top handicappers in the world. Sixth Sense is considered +EV long term. If you started to play his plays since the endorsement you are now down 80%. So if you had a $100K bankroll which the sophisticated bettor would have you have lost $80K leaving you $20K. Even a prorated return on investment does not help much when you have lost $80K. Just the flip side of it. I'm pretty sure that won't happen again, but people do have a right to be agitated when its paid for vs. posted for free.

    No "sophisticated bettor" would have lost 80% of their bankroll following his plays.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    Sixth Sense is considered +EV long term.

    I know others here feel differently but I've never seen anything in his writeups/picks to make me believe this. His dr bob esque situational analysis is likely to coin flip forward.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    duly noted Jake but that is 1 very extreme example. the subs should feel confident in their investment IMO but again your point is truly noted.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    worm33 wrote: »
    No "sophisticated bettor" would have lost 80% of their bankroll following his plays.
    That is of course correct, but I do know that the sophisticated bettor would cut his unit size, but still play out the season. +EV long term which his track record at the time showed him to be. You would not be sophisticated if you quit mid-season. His closing line value was 0.37 so the market still agreed with him.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    Sixth Sense has gone 146-149 since our endorsement. Not a shocking result for anyone in that market playing entirely WA numbers and mostly late in week.

    SY and BG are obviously both way up.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Sixth Sense has gone 146-149 since our endorsement. Not a shocking result for anyone in that market playing entirely WA numbers and mostly late in week.

    SY and BG are obviously both way up.
    Ed, I am not trying to irritate you, but as a paid subscriber 80% down is this figure. Long term he is still over 53%. I don't think you can count posting on a forum vs. paid. At least other services out there aren't given that latitude.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    You can irritate me all you want, but his record is 146-149 since I posted about him on this forum prior to 2011 NFL season and sent a similar e-mail to my mailing list.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Once again paid. One last question for you, his name is on the bottom of the page, in your opinion is he +EV going forward? I want to know if I should subscribe or not. Thanks in advance.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    Which animal is posting on the forums and which animal is running a service?

    I'll hang up and listen

    Running a RAS sponsored service usually means no overnights on daily sports and tighter WA line restrictions

    Those two things alone affect the record greatly. Then there's the whole logistics+emotional aspect of running something like this, not for everybody.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2014
    jakenhl wrote: »
    Once again paid.

    Once again 146-149 is for paid picks only.

    As to the +EV question, it is hard for me to say. I haven't spoken to him much since the start of last season, and I am not in tune with the NFL market at all.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Running a RAS sponsored service usually means no overnights on daily sports and tighter WA line restrictions

    Those two things alone affect the record greatly. Then there's the whole logistics+emotional aspect of running something like this, not for everybody.

    I know I was just being an asshole :thumbup:
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Once again 146-149 is for paid picks only.

    As to the +EV question, it is hard for me to say. I haven't spoken to him much since the start of last season, and I am not in tune with the NFL market at all.
    Sorry about that. I was under the impression that you had more say and knowledge of the people endorsed on the bottom of the page. I would still like to subscribe if in fact whoever the endorsement comes from says he is +EV. Thanks in advance.
  • Gordon GekkoGordon Gekko Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    Maybe this is a question for BG directly, but when he finished posting last season at whatever point it was, he stopped posting due to market adjusting/tightening to his line (based upon his database/other internal capping strategies/). I keep noticing posters quoting his CLV % in which he has easily stayed well ahead of since I've known him since 2003. One of the greatest years I've ever had was the second/third year, can't recall off the top of my head. My point is that he's at the point of manipulating the market, wouldn't the +CLV% be an expected assumption? The greatest advice to this day he ever gave me was "pick winners", LOL. I wish him continued success and anyone that utilizes his service.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    As with anyone venturing out and pursuing their passion while at the same time for the benefit of others you have my utmost respect. Best of luck with your new endeavor and the inaugural season, hope it's a grand slam for everyone! :)
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    worm33 wrote: »
    I think that's a bit of an overstatement.

    Touche
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    procap wrote: »
    Touche

    ^^ This. I was wrong as well.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2014
    No sure how big of line moves you guys were expecting releasing into 10k limits at pin/cris, but they are moving almost instantly (5-10c today) and for the most part closing well.
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