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    Default NCAA Men's Basketball Power Ratings (February 14, 2014)

    With the NFL season finished, I have decided to shift my focus towards NCAA Basketball. I never usually agree with the AP poll or Coaches poll, primarily because I believe the voters put too much emphasis on win/loss records. I also have a problem with simply ranking teams down the list 1-25. I'm pretty sure a fifth grader can rank the top 25 teams in numerical order based on win/loss record. For my power ratings, I assign numerical values to each team in order to get a better estimation of how much better one team is than another. Arizona is the number best team in the nation according to my ratings, but how much better are they than teams like Kansas, Florida and Syracuse? I look to answer those type of questions when constructing power ratings.

    Note: Michigan St. has a * because they have and thus are tough to assign a number to at the moment. is where I think they ultimately end up come March, but their current form is tough to judge. Oklahoma St. also has an asterisk because they are another team that is quantify at this point in time. This team hasn't been the same since Michael Cobbins went down with a season-ending Achilles injury and I just can't get a read on them. As always, feedback and comments are encouraged.

    Here is my top 50...

    95.0 Arizona
    94.0 Kansas
    93.0 Syracuse, Duke
    92.5 Florida
    92.0 Michigan St.
    91.0 Louisville
    90.5 Kentucky, Villanova, Iowa, Michigan
    90.0 Virginia, Wichita St., Iowa St.
    89.5 Creighton, UCLA
    89.0 Cincinnati, San Diego St., Ohio St.
    88.5 Wisconsin
    88.0 SMU, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Pittsburgh
    87.5 Oklahoma, UConn, Saint Louis, Kansas St., Memphis
    87.0 Arizona St., Stanford, Utah
    86.5 California, Tennessee, VCU, Oklahoma St.*
    85.5 George Washington, Xavier, West Virginia, St. John's
    85.0 Massachusetts, Minnesota
    84.5 Georgetown, Missouri, New Mexico, Florida St.
    84.0 Providence, Baylor, BYU

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    Senior Member Dr. H's Avatar
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    Louisville too low.
    Iowa too low
    Creighton too low
    Ohio St. low
    Pitt too low
    Oregon too high
    Texas too high
    VCU too low
    Villanova too low

    Those jumped out at me, I didn't look at a lot of the names at the bottom. And these are just my opinion. But for example, Pitt just closed -1 vs Syracuse, they can't really be 5 points behind them. Iowa closed -5.5 vs Michigan and -6 vs. OSU, so Iowa has to be higher than Michigan instead of on the same line, and OSU has to be closer to Michigan. My discrepancies are minor, and I think reflect the market more, but that doesn't mean I'm right and your wrong. It'd be impossible to make a list everyone agreed with, and I don't want everyone agreeing with mine. Thanks for taking the time to do them and post them.

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    Dr. H -

    I appreciate your feedback. I agree with your thoughts and yes my numbers do not necessarily reflect the market. I definitely have some opinions baked into those ratings, specifically Pittsburgh, who I think is overrated by the market (again just my opinion).

    I'm interested to see if you have any opinions like mine (i.e. Which teams are overrated / underrated by the market) because as we know, there are inefficiencies in the sports markets, specifically college basketball. Teams like Wichita St. and San Diego St. are tough for me to assign a number to and compare with some others because of their weak schedules. Again thanks for the feedback.

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    I like them yung, I think you overrate KAnsas some. I make Fla a chalk over az without Ashley. you overrate duke some. I like your opnion better than Dr H.

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    I agree that cuse is 5 better than Pitt. IF they play in elimination game neutral site., I would take Cuse -3 with confidence

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    Quote Originally Posted by Casper Ware View Post
    I agree that cuse is 5 better than Pitt. IF they play in elimination game neutral site., I would take Cuse -3 with confidence
    If we're going to go 2 points away from his ratings, Pitt +7 would be a much better bet than Cuse -3 on a neutral.

    What do you think of Louisville? I'd love to get them +4 on a neutral vs. Arizona.

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    Louisville is tough for me to put a number on because of their soft schedule but I probably did underrate them as well as overrate Zona a bit

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    Here's my Top 25:

    1 Louisville 100.5
    2 Arizona 99
    3 Duke 98.5
    4 Syracuse 98.5
    5 Kansas 98
    6 Florida 97.5
    7 Villanova 97.5
    8 Iowa 97
    9 Virginia 97
    10 Creighton 97
    11 Michigan 96.5
    12 Kentucky 96
    13 Michigan St. 95
    14 Ohio St. 95
    15 Pittsburgh 94.5
    16 Iowa St. 94.5
    17 UCLA 94
    18 Wisconsin 94
    19 Wichita St. 94
    20 North Carolina 94
    21 Saint Louis 93.5
    22 VCU 93
    23 Cincinnati 93
    24 San Diego St. 93
    25 Connecticut 93

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    Senior Member cpech56's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tone10 View Post
    Here's my Top 25:

    1 Louisville 100.5
    2 Arizona 99
    3 Duke 98.5
    4 Syracuse 98.5
    5 Kansas 98
    6 Florida 97.5
    7 Villanova 97.5
    8 Iowa 97
    9 Virginia 97
    10 Creighton 97
    11 Michigan 96.5
    12 Kentucky 96
    13 Michigan St. 95
    14 Ohio St. 95
    15 Pittsburgh 94.5
    16 Iowa St. 94.5
    17 UCLA 94
    18 Wisconsin 94
    19 Wichita St. 94
    20 North Carolina 94
    21 Saint Louis 93.5
    22 VCU 93
    23 Cincinnati 93
    24 San Diego St. 93
    25 Connecticut 93
    Iowa wayyyy overrated

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    Quote Originally Posted by cpech56 View Post
    Iowa wayyyy overrated
    My rankings are strictly from an oddsmaking perspective. And from an oddsmaking perspective, right now they are 100% among the top 10 or so.

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    Senior Member Dr. H's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tone10 View Post
    My rankings are strictly from an oddsmaking perspective. And from an oddsmaking perspective, right now they are 100% among the top 10 or so.
    Absolutely agree.

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    Senior Member cpech56's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. H View Post
    Absolutely agree.
    Absolutely agree from an oddsmakers view, but you play against them today with a team thats 4-8 in conference as opposed to Iowa whose only lost twice in conference on the road. @Wisc + @MSU? Relatively easy cover for Iowa today, just dont understand your play on PSU if you're so high on Iowa.

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    Senior Member Dr. H's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cpech56 View Post
    Absolutely agree from an oddsmakers view, but you play against them today with a team thats 4-8 in conference as opposed to Iowa whose only lost twice in conference on the road. @Wisc + @MSU? Relatively easy cover for Iowa today, just dont understand your play on PSU if you're so high on Iowa.
    Then don't play it.

    Just because I think that Iowa is a top 10 team in terms of the way they are lined, which is more fact than opinion, does not in any way mean that I think there can't be value playing against them against certain teams, in certain spots, etc. It actually is more likely to mean that I do find value if, for example, I think they are being lined like a top 10 team, but aren't a top 10 team.

    If you're going to question a play, do it before the game or not at all, imo. You're basically past posting a winner at this point, and I can't help but notice that you happened to respond right as the game ended. It's pretty easy to say Iowa is the correct side now, but I did beat the close by a full point, PSU was up at half, and PSU shot a craptastic 3-16 from the arc. I'll make that bet again any day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. H View Post
    Then don't play it.

    Just because I think that Iowa is a top 10 team in terms of the way they are lined, which is more fact that opinion, does not in any way mean that I think there can't be value playing against them against certain teams, in certain spots, etc. It actually is more likely to mean that I do find value if I think they are being lined like a top 10 team, but aren't a top 10 team.

    If you're going to question a play, do it before the game or not at all, imo. You're basically past posting a winner at this point. It's pretty easy to say Iowa is the correct side now, but I did beat the close by a full point, PSU was up at half, and PSU shot a craptastic 3-16 from the arc. I'll make that bet again any day.
    I didnt play it, but if thats adds justification to your excuse then okay. Just thought it was odd you were so quick to jump all over Iowa being a top ten team then posted PSU yesterday. You did beat the close though, it was nothing personal.

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    Senior Member Dr. H's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cpech56 View Post
    I didnt play it, but if thats adds justification to your excuse then okay. Just thought it was odd you were so quick to jump all over Iowa being a top ten team then posted PSU yesterday. You did beat the close though, it was nothing personal.
    LOL @ excuse. If you don't think that was a good bet, then you need to stop betting.

    Shockingly, you didn't understand my point at all. Read the first paragraph again, only try harder this time.

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