Betting Talk

Congrats Stevie Y...

RonyBallgameRonyBallgame Senior Member
edited February 2015 in Sports Betting
A 5-0 night and not a single one of them was much of a sweat. Don't get many of those along the way. Thanks for all that you do. Consistently banging out a profit in sports across the spectrum.

Comments

  • jmjm Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    Yeah huge night for him. NHL ain't looking too good tonight though....
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    jm wrote: »
    Yeah huge night for him. NHL ain't looking too good tonight though....

    It's every night that you are sitting on 78 shots in the 3rd period of a 0-0 game.
  • speedboyspeedboy Member
    edited January 2014
    Ottawa's Craig Anderson is terrible. Used to be decent.
  • jmjm Senior Member
    edited January 2014
    StevieY wrote: »
    It's every night that you are sitting on 78 shots in the 3rd period of a 0-0 game.

    Some reason we've lost way too many OT games too...just variance?
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited January 2014
    jm wrote: »
    Some reason we've lost way too many OT games too...just variance?

    I always lose more OT's than I win. OT's(with no SO) come out pretty close to the game line. SO's are completely random. Favs are 692-712 coming into this year in SO. Home teams have no advantage either. I had a year where from the first week of March until the end of the regular season, lost 18 straight OT/SO's. When a game goes OT, flip a coin, hope it comes up right.
  • jmjm Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    rebumbing as StevieY went 6-0 in hoops today. We had to sweat out the last play, but ended well for us. Nice Job StevieY
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited February 2015
    jm wrote: »
    rebumbing as StevieY went 6-0 in hoops today. We had to sweat out the last play, but ended well for us. Nice Job StevieY

    Are you sure you posted this in the right forum? I'll have to re-check the rules, not sure positivity is welcome anymore.

    Also, be fair, he did lose 0.1u in NHL. :)

    Nice to see someone give some props and even nicer to see the 6-0 day for both Stevie and my BR.
  • PettimorePettimore Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Congrats to SY BB followers...........you are almost ahead one unit!
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited February 2015
    Pettimore wrote: »
    Congrats to SY BB followers...........you are almost ahead one unit!

    Classy post.
  • PettimorePettimore Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Maybe not too classy.......but the truth
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited February 2015
    Pettimore wrote: »
    Maybe not too classy.......but the truth

    That definitely makes it worth posting then. My bad.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    I'm often asked why I don't post here more often; the above exchange is a fantastic example of why I don't. Reading this thread, the reader would be left with the impression StevieY is crushing it this year and consistently wins, but according to the records on his site, he's actually at a net loss both this year and this year and last combined, for a loss of around -14.95u over 1066 picks.

    The two year losing streak could certainly be due to variance (a 54% capper has about a 6% chance of a run like that over his next 1066 picks), and I commend any service that quotes accurate records, but to criticize a reply to a misleading, incredibly small sample size record as "classless" for simply quoting a larger sample is the sort of crap I expect to see on Pregame, not here.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    The two year losing streak could certainly be due to variance (a 54% capper has about a 6% chance of a run like that over his next 1066 picks), and I commend any service that quotes accurate records, but to criticize a reply to a misleading, incredibly small sample size record as "classless" for simply quoting a larger sample is the sort of crap I expect to see on Pregame, not here.

    I think it's a lot more about the delivery than the message itself. If Stevie was here pimping himself after a short term run, then I'd certainly see why people would have an issue. If a poster was boasting about what a good follow he is and only quoting short term records, then I could see issues. If it's just a matter of a couple of followers wanting to think him for a good day, then I don't really see the need to "rain on their parade". And if there is a need to bring them back to "reality", couldn't it be done in a better manner than a sarcastic "Congrats to SY BB followers...........you are almost ahead one unit! "?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    A binomial distribution is a poor way of examining sports betting results. In fact I think it's worthless, but if you are going to use it you might as well include all the available records instead of a cherry picked sample of 2 poor years.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited February 2015
    Tommy's response is basically spot on as far as clarifying what I meant.

    I thank him for taking the time to respond as I likely wasn't going to because I really don't enjoy engaging in this sort of back and forth. Anyone who wishes to continue the discussion is of course more than welcome to do so.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited February 2015
    Already talked about the football season recently, yeah it was brutal, and I would say there is a 50/50 chance I even do football next year and probably a 10% chance I would charge for it(and if i do, anyone who had it this year won't be charged for it).

    I've had one losing hockey season in the last 5 years.

    I've had zero losing CBB seasons the last 6 years. I don't think you will find someone who released truly WA lines who didn't have a losing year during that time. The two worst years in those 6 were +1.50 and +13.10. Those two are the years I am most proud of. Why? The 13.10 came a few years ago when no one was winning. No one.

    The 1.5 was last year when I had truly the most jekyl and hyde "variance" run you will ever seen. I have always said the conference season has been my bread and butter(2 years over 60% during that span, 3 others over 55%, last year 54.9%). What do we know about the conference regular season? Schedules are pretty regular, there are as many lined games during the weekend as there are during the week. Weekends are usually where you will do your damage. I'm sure most people who play the entire year would agree their winning % is probably a little higher on the weekends in the conference season. My numbers:

    2011 wkday 56.0%, 5 winning wks, 2 losing wks, 2 juice wks. Wkend 57.0%, 6 winning wks, 1 losing wks, 2 juice wks. 56.4% tot.
    2012 wkday 55.5%, 6 winning wks, 3 losing wks, 0 juice wks. Wkend 60.2%, 7 winning wks, 2 losing wks, 0 juice wks. 57.6% tot
    2013 wkday 54.3%, 5 winning wks, 4 losing wks, 0 juice wks. Wkend 56.2%, 5 winning wks, 2 losing wks, 2 juice wks. 55.2% tot

    Consistent overall results that go toward the theory of doing better on the weekends. Jekyl, meet Hyde.

    2014 wkday 71.4%, 8 winning wks, 0 losing wks, 1 juice wks. Wkend 35.4%, 0 winning wks, 7 losing wks, 2 juice wks. 54.9% tot

    Now the weekday results are off the chart no way to continue. The weekend? Wow, not a single winning weekend. Go thru the biggest 9 weekends of the year and not even come close to winning and still wind up a slight positive. I'll take my +1.5. Runs happen thru the year but talk about the switch flipping on and off. FWIW, I didn't notice that run until late January late year when an ex-teammate of mine mentioned it. He is a rec player who calls me on the weekends to see who I am playing because there are so many games and he doesn't want to deal with it. He'd ask me how I was doing and then I would give him my plays plus some smaller plays. After week 2 or 3 weeks he mentioned something about it so I checked it out. i was 27-11 weekdays when he mentioned it, went 28-11 after, and was 11-18 before and 12-24 after so it stayed pretty constant. Apparently I can't handle prosperity and I bounce back quickly. :)

    Before this week

    2015 wkday 62.5%, 3 winning wks, 0 losing wks, 0 juice wks. Wkend 36.8%, 0 winning wks, 3 losing wks, 0 juice wks.

    The shit was continuing. :) This week 5-4 and 6-0(which also gave me a 55% month, my gravy stays consistent even thru the crazy runs). The winning weekdays continue, think JM has the right to celebrate a weekend win, it's been a while.

    I believe I read someone a few weeks ago mention that no one is really winning CBB this year(non-TV totals not included) so if this is a repeat to a couple years ago where the majority of the consistent winners don't do so well, I'm not too disappointed at where I stand right now especially since totals have sucked.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited February 2015
    Pettimore wrote: »
    Congrats to SY BB followers...........you are almost ahead one unit!

    Could be worse.
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