Betting Talk

TT's NFL

TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
edited December 2014 in Sports Betting
I've been working extremely hard on learning how to sports handicap and develop sports models and am confident I have something that can beat NFL sides. I've back-tested it over several years and have found it to be profitable (there's no data mining or curve fitting involved in the backtesting).

That said, I'd still tread lightly until it builds up a record here. I'm going to track closing line value but in a very simple way: If I post a play at -4 and it closes -5, that's beating the close. If the post is -4 and it closes -3, that's losing the close. If the post is -3 and it closes -3, that's pushing the close unless the close is 10 cents more on either side. For example, post is -3 -105 and close is -3 -115, that's beating the close but -3 -114 would be pushing the close. **Note: Close refers to Pinny median close

Week 10 Plays to be graded:


#219 Carolina 6.5 -110
#224 San Diego 7 -116
#211 St Louis 9.5 -110


These are additional plays I have that I won't include in my record. The grading guidelines dictate I grade them at -110 and since these are all so far away from -110, I'm not sure they'd be profitable at -110.

I am going to include these in my closing line value tracking assuming that's OK with a Mod (Please let me know)

#108 Minnesota +1 +113
#214 Atlanta +6 -101
#216 Baltimore 1 -103
#221 Houston 1 +111
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Comments

  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited November 2013
    TotallyTilt wrote: »
    These are additional plays I have that I won't include in my record. The grading guidelines dictate I grade them at -110 and since these are all so far away from -110, I'm not sure they'd be profitable at -110.

    I am going to include these in my closing line value tracking assuming that's OK with a Mod (Please let me know)

    #108 Minnesota +1 +113
    #214 Atlanta +6 -101
    #216 Baltimore 1 -103
    #221 Houston 1 +111

    #108 Minnesota +1 +113
    #216 Baltimore 1 -103
    #221 Houston 1 +111

    The above three lines are teaser defense lines at Pinnacle. You can grade those sides at -110 using Bookmaker lines that are roughly equivalent at Minnesota +2.5, Baltimore +1.5, and Houston +3 (-127)
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Update:

    Week 10 Plays to be graded:

    #219 Carolina 6.5 -110
    #224 San Diego 7 -116
    #211 St Louis 9.5 -110
    #108 Minnesota 2.5 -110 (Bookmaker Line)
    #216 Baltimore 1.5 -110 (Bookmaker Line)
    #221 Houston 3 -127 (Bookmaker Line)
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited November 2013
    I was going to post something similar to what srn828 did, so thanks for that.

    TT, if you're going to take lines from Pinny, you need to add about 5 cents to the juice to make them a standard 20-cent line that we require for grading. So SD should be graded at +7 -120 (BM has that anyway) and STL should be graded at +10 -115 from BM (which is a better line that what you posted anyway.

    As for the CLV question, please track the CLV that goes with the plays you're actually posting as official and keeping a record for. If you want to track those other plays separately, that's fine, but adding in "unofficial plays" to your CLV analysis would be a little confusing and go against the spirit of having a main, official record that follows our guidelines (even though we don't actually require or have rules for tracking CLV).

    Hope that made sense. GL.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Update per Goat's suggestions (And yes that made sense, thanks)

    Week 10 Plays to be graded:

    #219 Carolina 6.5 -110
    #224 San Diego 7 -120
    #211 St Louis 10 -115
    #108 Minnesota 2.5 -110
    #216 Baltimore 1.5 -110
    #221 Houston 3 -127
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Week 10 Results:

    Record: 4-1-1 +2.8 Units
    Beat Close %: 4-2 66%

    Week 11 Picks will be up tonight or tomorrow
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Week 11 Plays (May have a few more in a couple days). All lines taken from BookMaker except Minnesota (taken from Pinny and added 5 cents):

    #310 Tennessee +3 -125
    #404 Tampa Bay +1.5 -110
    #406 Buffalo -1 -110
    #408 Pitt +2.5 -110
    #420 Jacksonville +6.5 -105
    #423 Minnesota +13.5 -110
  • BumpItBumpIt Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    Best of luck in your new endeavour TT. Considering you are probably the best limit holdem player in the world and knowing the time and dedication that you have put in over the years, I have little doubt that you will eventually rise to the top with sports betting. TotallyTilt sticky...coming soon. You heard it here first.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Adding #408 Pitt 1.5 -110 and #430 Carolina -2.5 -115 (Both from Bookmaker)

    All Week 11 Plays:
    #310 Tennessee +3 -125
    #404 Tampa Bay +1.5 -110
    #406 Buffalo -1 -110
    #408 Pitt +2.5 -110
    #420 Jacksonville +6.5 -105
    #423 Minnesota +13.5 -110
    #408 Pitt 1.5 -110
    #430 Carolina -2.5 -115
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Just realized I have Pitt listed twice in my week 11 plays. Pitt 2.5 -110 was my original play so that's the one that'll be counted in my record.

    Tampa Bay pushed and lost to the close. Updated record is:

    4-1-2 +2.8 Units
    Beat Close: 4-3 57.1%

    Pending Plays:

    #404 Tampa Bay +1.5 -110
    #406 Buffalo -1 -110
    #408 Pitt +2.5 -110
    #420 Jacksonville +6.5 -105
    #423 Minnesota +13.5 -110
    #430 Carolina -2.5 -115
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Updated Record: 7-3-2 +3.65 Units
    Beat Close: 5-6 45%

    Carolina -2.5 -115 Pending

    Next week's plays should be up within the next day.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Week 12 Plays - All lines taken from BookMaker except Carolina taken from Pinny and added 5 cents:

    #108 Atlanta +7 -105
    #209 Tampa +9.5 -110
    #212 Houston -10 -115
    #217 Carolina -3.5 -110
    #222 St Louis -1 -110
    #224 Baltimore -3.5 -110
    #225 Tennessee 1.5 -110

    Week 11 Pending: Carolina -2.5 -115
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Updated Record: 8-3-2 +4.65 Units
    Beat Close: 6/12 50%

    Pending Plays:

    #108 Atlanta +7 -105
    #209 Tampa +9.5 -110
    #212 Houston -10 -115
    #217 Carolina -3.5 -110
    #222 St Louis -1 -110
    #224 Baltimore -3.5 -110
    #225 Tennessee 1.5 -110
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Adding: #232 New England +2.5 -110
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Updated Record: 9-3-2 +5.65 Units
    Beat Close 6/13 = 46.1%

    Pending:

    #209 Tampa +9.5 -110
    #212 Houston -10 -115
    #217 Carolina -3.5 -110
    #222 St Louis -1 -110
    #224 Baltimore -3.5 -110
    #225 Tennessee 1.5 -110
    #232 New England +2.5 -110
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Updated Record: 14-4-2 +9.53 Units
    Beat Close 11.5/19 = 60%

    Pending: #232 New England +2.5 -110

    Should have next week's picks up tonight or tomorrow
  • DubbsDubbs Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    TotallyTilt wrote: »
    Updated Record: 14-4-2 +9.53 Units
    Beat Close 11.5/19 = 60%

    Pending: #232 New England +2.5 -110

    Should have next week's picks up tonight or tomorrow

    Very nice! Keep it up!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    I agree very nice... best
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Thanks guys, obviously some extreme positive variance so far. I do expect these picks are going to win in the 53-55% range and beat the close in the 60-65% neighborhood barring something changing to make the methodology behind them unprofitable. I don't see any reason for that happening though, at least in the near future.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Updated Record:

    15-4-2 +10.53 Units
    Closing Line Value: 12.5/20 = 62.5%

    Week 13 Plays (All Lines taken from BookMaker):

    #425 Tennessee +4.5 -110
    #431 Tampa Bay +8 -110
    #437 Miami +2 -110
    #439 Atlanta +3.5 -110
    #449 New Orleans +6 -110

    May have one or two more in the next few days...
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Updated Record:

    17-6-2 +10.33 Units

    Closing Live Value: 15.5/24 = 64.5%

    New Orleans +6 Pending

    Should have next weeks picks up tonight
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited December 2013
    TotallyTilt wrote: »
    17-6-2 +10.33 Units

    Something is off with your units since all lines are listed/graded in nickel increments as they should be.

    Congrats on the run. Not bad for a poker player. :)
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    Something is off with your units since all lines are listed/graded in nickel increments as they should be.

    Congrats on the run. Not bad for a poker player. :)

    Ha thanks :) Speaking of poker, as much as I love sports betting, it'll be back to that in about a month.

    And yep, not sure how I messed that up but it's fixed below. Fairly sure I counted "#212 Houston -10 -115" from my 11/22 post as a 1.12 unit loss instead of a 1.15 unit loss.

    Revised record: 17-6-2 +10.3 Units
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Week 14 Plays (All lines taken from BookMaker):

    #101 Houston -3 +105
    #137 Oakland +3 -120
    #140 Cincy -5.5 -110
    #149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
    #151 St Louis +6.5 -110

    Pending from Week 13:

    #449 New Orleans +6 -110

    May have another play or two in a few days...
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Killin 'em, TT. Keep up the good work.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Thanks, happy to be able to contribute and to help out people in the forum that have helped me in the past such as yourself.

    As I mentioned earlier, these picks are running way, way above expectation. But certainly not complaining, hopefully it keeps up.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Updated Record: 17-7-2 +9.2 Units
    Closing Line Value: 15.5/25 = 62%

    Pending:

    #101 Houston -3 +105
    #137 Oakland +3 -120
    #140 Cincy -5.5 -110
    #149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
    #151 St Louis +6.5 -110
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Adding #156 San Fran -2.5 -125 (Taken from Pinny, i'ts actually -2.5 -118 there)
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Adding: #154 San Diego -3 -125 and #141 Carolina +3 100

    Total Pending:

    #101 Houston -3 +105
    #137 Oakland +3 -120
    #140 Cincy -5.5 -110
    #149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
    #151 St Louis +6.5 -110
    156 San Fran -2.5 -125
    #154 San Diego -3 -125
    #141 Carolina +3 100
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Updated Record: 17-8-2 +8.2 Units
    Closing Live Value: 16.5/26 = 63.5%

    Pending:

    #137 Oakland +3 -120
    #140 Cincy -5.5 -110
    #149 Tennessee +12.5 -110
    #151 St Louis +6.5 -110
    156 San Fran -2.5 -125
    #154 San Diego -3 -125
    #141 Carolina +3 100
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited December 2013
    Updated Record: 19-13-2 +4.55 Units
    Closing Line Value: 20/33 = 60.6%

    Should have next week's plays up tomorrow
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