Betting Talk

Rookie QBs line value

ValueinvestorValueinvestor Junior Member
edited September 2014 in Sports Betting
I'm not much of a believer in trends. I prefer fundamental analysis to handicap games but I believe this one makes logical sense. Rookie QBs ATS are undervalued by the betting market. So far this year, after the Thurs night cover by Geno Smith, Rookie QBs are 3-0. Below is the data I compiled going back to 2004. Including last nights games, the combined record is 146-91-4 (60.6%). Just something to keep in mind this season when you feel the need to bet against a rookie QB.


2012
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland- 15 Starts, 72.6 QB rating, 14 TDs, 17 INT, 5-10 SU, 9-6 ATS
Ryan Tannehill, Miami- 16 Starts, 76.1 QB Rating, 14 Total TDs( Passing +Rushing), 13 INT, 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Russell Wilson, Seattle- 16 Starts, 100.0 QB Rating, 30 Total TDs, 10 INT, 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
Andrew Luck, Indy- 16 Starts, 76.5 QB rating, 28 TDs, 18 INT, 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
RGIII, Washington- 15 Starts, 102.4 QB Ratins, 27 TDs, 5 INT, 9-6 SU, 10-5 ATS

2011
Cam Newton, Carolina- 16 starts, 84.5 QB rating, 35 TD(Passing+Rushing), 17 INT, 6-10 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati- 16 starts, 80.4 QB rating, 20 TD, 13 INT, 9-7 SU, 8-6-2 ATS

2010
Sam Bradford, St. Louis – 16 starts, 76.5 QB rating, 18 TD, 15 INT, 7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS
Jimmy Clausen, Carolina – 10 starts, 58.4 QB rating, 3 TD, 9 INT, 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS

2009
Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – 15 starts, 63.0 QB rating, 12 TD, 20 INT, 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS
Matthew Stafford, Detroit – 10 starts, 61.0 QB rating, 13 TD, 20 INT, 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay– 9 starts, 59.8 QB rating, 10 TD, 18 INT, 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS

2008
Joe Flacco, Baltimore – 16 starts, 80.3 QB rating, 14 TD, 12 INT, 11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS
Matt Ryan, Atlanta – 16 starts, 87.7 QB rating, 16 TD, 11 INT, 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS

2007
Trent Edwards, Buffalo – 10 starts, 70.4 QB rating, 7 TD, 8 INT, 5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS

2006
Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – 13 starts, 66.7 QB rating, 12 TD, 13 INT, 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS

2004
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh –13 starts, 98.1 QB rating, 17 TD, 11 INT, 13-0 SU, 10-3-1 ATS

Comments

  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    I like it, also llike that when I was fading Jimmy Clausen people were saying yeah good idea fading the rookie, I told them I wasn't fading him because he was a rookie, I was fading him because he was Jimmy Clausen.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited September 2013
    would be interesting to see the ATS record of Freshman qbs in ncaa over the yrs
  • ValueinvestorValueinvestor Junior Member
    edited September 2014
    Here are the updated statistics I compile every year on Rookie QBs ATS. It wasn't a great year overall after Geno Smith started out really hot going 4-1 ATS in his first 5 games. A couple of the rookies who started were bums and not highly drafted, like McGloin and Tuel. Geno was the top dog going 9-6-1 ATS. 2013 Rookies went 21-24 ATS (47%) overall in 2013. The ATS results through 2004 are 164-115-5 60.1%. The first rookie QB getting the start is Oakland's David Carr.
    2013
    Jeff Tuel, Buffalo - 1 Starts, 52.2 QB Rating, 1 TDs, 2 INTs, 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS
    Matt McGloin - 6 Starts, 76.1 QB Rating, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS
    EJ Manuel, Buffalo- 10 starts, 77.7 QB Rating, 13 TDs(Rushing +Passing), 9 INTs, 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS
    Geno Smith - 16 starts, 66.5 QB Rating, 18 TDs( Rushing+Passing), 21 INTs, 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
    Mike Glennon 13 Starts, 83.9 QB Rating, 19 TDs, 9 INTs, 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2014
    I think most of the smarter cappers don't bet against rookie qb's blindly, check out what certain coaches/teams do against those qb's.
    thanks for taking the time to post
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