Regular NFL Season 2013
Obi One
Senior Member
A couple of underdogs who will win their games outright in my opinion:
451 BAL +9
463 CIN +3
473 ARI +4.5
475 GB +4.5
451 BAL +9
463 CIN +3
473 ARI +4.5
475 GB +4.5
Comments
RM
Hi RM,
Please check the record keeping guidelines:
#4. All football and basketball picks must be at -110*. No money lines. No buying points.
*An exception would be when a game is shaded around a key number like 3 or 7. In that case, please make sure to include the proper juice
Personally I will be betting them on the moneyline. Most probably 70% on the spread and 30% on the moneyline for Baltimore and 50/50 for the others. Going cautious. It's week 1, but I like these dogs.
YTD: 1-2-1 for -1.2 UNITS
196 PHI -7
Will also be on them for the 1st half.
212 CHI -6
213 NO -3
216 DET/ARI UNDER 47.5
218 OAK -5.5
224 CIN -6
YTD: 4-5-1 for -1.5 units
Early picks for week 3:
301 KC +3
407 NYG +1.5
403 DET/WSH OVER 49
414 SEA -18
Yes I know these big faves are 4-14 ATS since the nineties
Noticed that the Broncos with Manning and the thin-air home advantage regularly have a decisive edge over their opponents in the 2nd half of games. Will be waiting for the 2nd half tomorrow, to see wether there's a play available.
214 KC -4
217 DAL/SD OVER 45
202 BAL/BUF UNDER 44
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
YTD: 6-7-1 for -1.7 units
Thursday Night Football:
102 STL +3
224 ne/atl under 49.5
205 IND -7.5
Smart people buy the hook to -7. Right now, Pinny's -9.5 is more indicative of what this number should be.
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
YTD: 10-9-2 for +0.1 units
Upward trend continues as numbers grow stronger. Back on tuesday with the picks.
301 BUF/CLE UNDER 41
422 IND +2.5 (smarter bettors buy the hook to 3 off course)
430 CAR/ARI UNDER 42.5
Hey Jets,
If (and that's a big 'if') anybody tails my plays, I wouldn't want them stuck with a +2.5 instead of a +3 (at -120 or -130). My only problem in this one is that I have to post according to the rules of BT. As I don't see the number getting back to +3 for now, I posted it this way.
While most of the serious sports bettors on here know what to do in such a situation, I'm not expecting all newbies to implement these tricks automatically. Therefore the somewhat 'dumb' explanation. Last week I posted SEA at -3, while -2.5 and -2 were available later in the week. On my posted plays I got the push, while in my personal account it was a winner at -2.5.
413 KC -2.5
419 NE +2
430 CAR -2
Waiting for Dallas to get to +8 or higher. Already happy with the +7.5 but wouldn't mind getting more.
You should only buy the 3 if your book undercharges for buying it(good luck finding that).
Lumpy,
Been mulling your post for a long time. Would you mind explaining this to me? I've been buying from -3 to -2.5 and from +2.5 to +3 frequently. Off-course at extra-juiced numbers, but I don't mind doing that. Are you telling me there's a mathematical explanation why this is a bad idea?
Lumpy can expound with the exact math, but the simple explanation is that when you look at the historical hit rate of the 3, it tells you that it is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 22 cents, so you should only be buying on/off it if you are paying less than that... and as Lumpy said, good luck finding that these days.
goats covered it
When sports betting was blowing up online ~10 years ago some books charged the standard 10c to buy on and off the 3, so you could play -2.5 -110 OR -3 -120(similar to college now) Eventually books wised up(or went broke) and realized that 3 in the NFL is worth more than 10c and they fixed it and some of them overcharge now.
7 is similar in the NFL, it's worth more than 10c so most books charge accordingly and some overcharge.
A few years ago(not sure if this is still the case) SBG global would correctly charge to buy from -3.5 to -3....but for some reason if you bought thru the 3, -3.5 to -2.5 the price was way off.
fortunately, some of my locals still charge only 10 cents to buy on/off the 3 in the NFL
Second this!
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Appalled by the performances of NE and CAR...Will have to adjust their road power ratings.
YTD: 13-12-2 for -0.2 units
102 CHI -7.5
Will keep fading the Giants and their atrocious play till they show me otherwise. Or till the books make the spreads too big.
204 KC -8.5
- Oakland just beat a bad team (San Diego) they should've beaten at home. Kansas City is at a whole other level in my rankings. While they just barely covered the spread on the road in their last 2 games, I believe this one to be a romp. Why? Because KC plays mistake-free ball and has a defense to contain Pryor.
220 SEA -13.5
- Seattle has outplayed their opponents to a wide margin at home. I don't think Fitzpatrick can handle this loud environment. He's been a turnover machine the last 2 years. Seattle is tops in the league right now with a +7 turnover differential. Not a good matchup for Tennessee. I also like the fact that Seattle is coming off a loss.
229 IND -1.5
- San Diego is allowing opposing passers a rating of 112.42. They're making every QB they face look like the 2nd coming of Joe Montana....... and they have Andrew Luck up next? Really like this play.
205 PHI -1.5
- It's their second road game against a winless team. Nick Foles has a week to prepare. I'm expecting him to turn it over less than Vick does with all the sacks, fumbles and interceptions. Less mistakes means a bigger chance of winning.