Week 1: 1-2-1 for -1.2 units
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
If I look at my analysis and the rankings my model spits out, I have to be happy that most of my sides either really truck the spread by 15+ points or that most of my losses are still in it right up to the final minutes. Only Carolina last week never really stood a chance. This week Chicago and Seattle had ample opportunity's to cover but they played conservative and Indy last night had a bad case of the drops. Two of which could've easily gone for touchdowns. Only a matter of time before these picks take off.
304 ARI +6.5
2 very good defenses going at it. Arizona has played much better at home compared to their road stats. Conversely the Seahawks are a good chunk worse on the road. Number on the Seahawks is also still a bit inflated. Couple of 7's out there.
402 KC -6.5
- Kansas City's defense has the best numbers of all the defenses which Houston has faced this year. Couple that with Schaub's injury and a coach who's seat is getting hotter and hotter and the Chiefs will cover this one easily. KC won't put up flashy numbers like Denver, but they just wait for you mistake and capitalize on it.
412 CAR -6
Carolina's defense has been a shutdown defense at home. Holding Seattle to 12 points and the Giants to zero points. St. Louis has slightly inflated numbers as their 2 previous opponents were the Texans and the Jaguars.
418 CLE/GB UNDER 46
Cleveland is back to it's sore scoring ways with Weeden at the helm. As is known by now the Brons do have a very good defensive unit. The Packers will be missing Cobb and I expect them to rely more on the running game. Which means longer clockeating scoring drives. The one weakness they have on defense, which is their secondary, won't be exploited by Weeden.
I do like Indy to come out with a bit more of an edge than Denver in the 1st half. My problem betting this one for the full game is Peyton's ability to analyse and adjust to the defensive formations thrown at him in the second half. Therefore only a 1st half bet here. Hoping to get some value on Denver for the 2nd half.
I hope Denver scores a TD before the half...would make it 21-19 with the 1st half bet at +3, that would be a win, and the 2nd half number on Denver would be more manageable. Couple of things to note why I believe Denver is the right side for the 2nd half:
- Indy's defense has been on the field for almost 2/3 of the first half
- Denver gets the ball to start the second half.
- Indy is thin at OL with only 6 players
- Indy got 2 points on the safety and 7 points on a very short field. Those events are less likely to repeat in the 2nd half.
- Peyton Manning
Week 1: 1-2-1 for -1.2 units
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
Week 7: 3-2 for +0.8 units
YTD: 18-17-2 for -0.7 units
me·di·o·cre
ˌmēdēˈōkər/
adjective
1.
of only moderate quality; not very good.
103 CAR -6
While they're about even in my rankings when comparing Carolina's road numbers with Tampa Bay's home numbers, there's a huge difference between the 2 of them when looking at their season stats which I also have split up in their last 5 and their last 2. Carolina has put a drubbing on St Louis and Minnesota, which are both ranked above Tampa Bay in my rankings. I hope their excellent play continues (especially on defense)
229 GB -9.5
It's not like Josh Freeman suddenly became very bad after only 2 weeks to get acquainted with his new receivers. He has been bad allseason long, whether with Tampa or wit Minnestota. Not being able to score an offensive TD against the NY Giants Defense is worrisome. Good enough for me to take this game at -9.5.
218 NO -11
- New Orleans with the better coaching, better overall talent and less injuries. Discrepancy between their home stats and Buffalo's road stats are big enough to lay this number.
229 GB -9.5
It's not like Josh Freeman suddenly became very bad after only 2 weeks to get acquainted with his new receivers. He has been bad allseason long, whether with Tampa or wit Minnestota. Not being able to score an offensive TD against the NY Giants Defense is worrisome. Good enough for me to take this game at -9.5.
Made this bet before Freeman suddenly got 'concussed'....with Ponder back in, I haven't seen the number move which basically means that the market values both QB's the same. This play is more a play on Minnesota's incompetence than on Green Bay's strengths.
Week 1: 1-2-1 for -1.2 units
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
Week 7: 3-2 for +0.8 units
Week 8: 3-1 for +1.9 units
402 CAR -7.5
- Carolina got their game together after slow start to the season. They are feasting on the weaker opponents. I don't see Atlanta score too many points in this contest.
404 DAL -10.5
- Minnesota is a decent team right now, but they just can't get good enough play out of their QBs. That does not bode well against the Dallas D at home.
405 NO -5.5
The Jets have been outperforming their stats so far this season. Mostly due to their defines which has kept them in games. Last few games has seen them play more in their own weight class, and that's too low for these Saints, even if they're on the road.
420 NE -7
- New England's home number are much better than Pittsburgh's road numbers. Even though Pittsburgh's numbers have been improving since their 0-4 start. that was against bottom-tier teams. (Baltimore on the road.... sucks)
421 IND -1.5
- No sandwich spot here for Indy this time. They're coming off their bye and have excellent road numbers.
414 OAK -2.5
Oakland's home numbers are much more efficient than Philly's road numbers. Even though Philly's defense has looked better the last 2 weeks. Oakland has been trending up overall, while Philly has been trending down (and they weren't that good in the first place)
212 IND -7.5 vs STL
Indy does have the Offensive Line to contain St Louis' Defensive Line. The only plus unit which St Louis has. The rest is mediocre and Kellen Clemens is not going to do much with a pass? rating of 62.
213 SEA -3.5 @ ATL
Atlanta is weak.
220 SF -5 vs CAR
Really really like this play. Carolina has bad numbers away from B.o.America Stadium compared to their home numbers. They have also faced the easiest schedule of all NFL teams. NYG, MIN, STL, TB and Atlanta amongst others. I think they will get a thorough beating in SF.
Week 1: 1-2-1 for -1.2 units
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
Week 7: 3-2 for +0.8 units
Week 8: 3-1 for +1.9 units
Week 9: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 10: 1-2 for -1.2 units
YTD: 25-23-2 for -0.3 units
Wrapping up last year, will post my new thread in the Picks Only section.
Comments
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
If I look at my analysis and the rankings my model spits out, I have to be happy that most of my sides either really truck the spread by 15+ points or that most of my losses are still in it right up to the final minutes. Only Carolina last week never really stood a chance. This week Chicago and Seattle had ample opportunity's to cover but they played conservative and Indy last night had a bad case of the drops. Two of which could've easily gone for touchdowns. Only a matter of time before these picks take off.
YTD: 15-15-2 for -1.5 units
304 ARI +6.5
2 very good defenses going at it. Arizona has played much better at home compared to their road stats. Conversely the Seahawks are a good chunk worse on the road. Number on the Seahawks is also still a bit inflated. Couple of 7's out there.
- Kansas City's defense has the best numbers of all the defenses which Houston has faced this year. Couple that with Schaub's injury and a coach who's seat is getting hotter and hotter and the Chiefs will cover this one easily. KC won't put up flashy numbers like Denver, but they just wait for you mistake and capitalize on it.
Carolina's defense has been a shutdown defense at home. Holding Seattle to 12 points and the Giants to zero points. St. Louis has slightly inflated numbers as their 2 previous opponents were the Texans and the Jaguars.
Cleveland is back to it's sore scoring ways with Weeden at the helm. As is known by now the Brons do have a very good defensive unit. The Packers will be missing Cobb and I expect them to rely more on the running game. Which means longer clockeating scoring drives. The one weakness they have on defense, which is their secondary, won't be exploited by Weeden.
I do like Indy to come out with a bit more of an edge than Denver in the 1st half. My problem betting this one for the full game is Peyton's ability to analyse and adjust to the defensive formations thrown at him in the second half. Therefore only a 1st half bet here. Hoping to get some value on Denver for the 2nd half.
1422 IND +3 for the 1st half (-105)
- Indy's defense has been on the field for almost 2/3 of the first half
- Denver gets the ball to start the second half.
- Indy is thin at OL with only 6 players
- Indy got 2 points on the safety and 7 points on a very short field. Those events are less likely to repeat in the 2nd half.
- Peyton Manning
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
Week 7: 3-2 for +0.8 units
YTD: 18-17-2 for -0.7 units
me·di·o·cre
ˌmēdēˈōkər/
adjective
1.
of only moderate quality; not very good.
103 CAR -6
While they're about even in my rankings when comparing Carolina's road numbers with Tampa Bay's home numbers, there's a huge difference between the 2 of them when looking at their season stats which I also have split up in their last 5 and their last 2. Carolina has put a drubbing on St Louis and Minnesota, which are both ranked above Tampa Bay in my rankings. I hope their excellent play continues (especially on defense)
It's not like Josh Freeman suddenly became very bad after only 2 weeks to get acquainted with his new receivers. He has been bad allseason long, whether with Tampa or wit Minnestota. Not being able to score an offensive TD against the NY Giants Defense is worrisome. Good enough for me to take this game at -9.5.
- New Orleans with the better coaching, better overall talent and less injuries. Discrepancy between their home stats and Buffalo's road stats are big enough to lay this number.
Made this bet before Freeman suddenly got 'concussed'....with Ponder back in, I haven't seen the number move which basically means that the market values both QB's the same. This play is more a play on Minnesota's incompetence than on Green Bay's strengths.
- Jason Campbell the saviour? ...Nahhhh
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
Week 7: 3-2 for +0.8 units
Week 8: 3-1 for +1.9 units
YTD: 21-18-2 for +1.2 units
- Carolina got their game together after slow start to the season. They are feasting on the weaker opponents. I don't see Atlanta score too many points in this contest.
404 DAL -10.5
- Minnesota is a decent team right now, but they just can't get good enough play out of their QBs. That does not bode well against the Dallas D at home.
405 NO -5.5
The Jets have been outperforming their stats so far this season. Mostly due to their defines which has kept them in games. Last few games has seen them play more in their own weight class, and that's too low for these Saints, even if they're on the road.
420 NE -7
- New England's home number are much better than Pittsburgh's road numbers. Even though Pittsburgh's numbers have been improving since their 0-4 start. that was against bottom-tier teams. (Baltimore on the road.... sucks)
421 IND -1.5
- No sandwich spot here for Indy this time. They're coming off their bye and have excellent road numbers.
Oakland's home numbers are much more efficient than Philly's road numbers. Even though Philly's defense has looked better the last 2 weeks. Oakland has been trending up overall, while Philly has been trending down (and they weren't that good in the first place)
Indy does have the Offensive Line to contain St Louis' Defensive Line. The only plus unit which St Louis has. The rest is mediocre and Kellen Clemens is not going to do much with a pass? rating of 62.
213 SEA -3.5 @ ATL
Atlanta is weak.
220 SF -5 vs CAR
Really really like this play. Carolina has bad numbers away from B.o.America Stadium compared to their home numbers. They have also faced the easiest schedule of all NFL teams. NYG, MIN, STL, TB and Atlanta amongst others. I think they will get a thorough beating in SF.
Week 2: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 3: 2-2 for -0.2 units
Week 4: 4-2-1 for +1.8 units
Week 5: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 6: 2-3 for -1.3 units
Week 7: 3-2 for +0.8 units
Week 8: 3-1 for +1.9 units
Week 9: 3-3 for -0.3 units
Week 10: 1-2 for -1.2 units
YTD: 25-23-2 for -0.3 units
Wrapping up last year, will post my new thread in the Picks Only section.