Betting Talk

Buffettgambler Discussion Thread

JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
edited October 2019 in Sports Betting
Sweet gloriousness!!!
«13456747

Comments

  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    That line is completely bewildering to me. I made the Rays much higher and certainly agree with them at that price. I almost feel like I'm missing something here, it just seems too obvious.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    That line is completely bewildering to me. I made the Rays much higher and certainly agree with them at that price. I almost feel like I'm missing something here, it just seems too obvious.

    There is a decent sized disconnect with G1 and G2 pricing, but not terribly surprised we are seeing one before close. Price is known to be accompanied by head-fakes or a soft opener before a strong move up towards fair value below close. Given Gonzalez's closing price representing a new pricing point last start (and constant cappings against Sabathia's upticks towards FV), you have an ideal platform to take a soft opener and play around with it.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Love the analysis, BG.....but any thoughts to creating a discussion thread for your plays and keeping this one picks only? TIA
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Love the analysis, BG.....but any thoughts to creating a discussion thread for your plays and keeping this one picks only? TIA

    Sure. If that is okay with the mods.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Rays are 0-3 in Price's starts this year. He is 0-1 with an ERA close to 6. Factor that in with it being an away game, and playing a team with a better record and I think the line is justified.

    Gotta think that if you bet both Price and Cain today with the small lines that you'll get atleast a split and very well could sneak away with 2 wins.

    Good Luck Buffett
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    BTW, welcome aboard BG! Clearly you are already respected by others, so looking forward to your contributions.

    GL this season.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Here's to a great season and some education from BG.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Rays are 0-3 in Price's starts this year. He is 0-1 with an ERA close to 6. Factor that in with it being an away game, and playing a team with a better record and I think the line is justified.

    Gotta think that if you bet both Price and Cain today with the small lines that you'll get atleast a split and very well could sneak away with 2 wins.

    Good Luck Buffett

    I think if you cap based on a pitcher's last 3 games (we have a BIT more data on Price than that), ERA, and team's W/L records, you're going to get destroyed.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Totally agree, I am just throwing out some stats as to why the line may be lower than norm. Did a little research on BG, and I am happy to have you posting man. Quite the past with baseball. Good Luck this summer.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I have a question, I know who the Buffetgambler is from other forums I don't know his expertize in baseball or any other sport and from what the guys say I'm sure his pick thread is worth a peak every day. But the question I have is he posted Tampa Bay at -120 from at 5:47am @ Pinnacle according to Pinnacle's history at exactly at that time it was -125 at 5:24 it was -120 now the rules clearly state that you use the line at post.

    Now pinny may not put every line change down and he may have caught the -120 at the perfect time and I'm by no means saying he didn't bet it at -120 I just happen to be looking because after looking at that game I like Price very much and was checking the line history.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I have a question, I know who the Buffetgambler is from other forums I don't know his expertize in baseball or any other sport and from what the guys say I'm sure his pick thread is worth a peak every day. But the question I have is he posted Tampa Bay at -120 from at 5:47am @ Pinnacle according to Pinnacle's history at exactly at that time it was -125 at 5:24 it was -120 now the rules clearly state that you use the line at post.

    Now pinny may not put every line change down and he may have caught the -120 at the perfect time and I'm by no means saying he didn't bet it at -120 I just happen to be looking because after looking at that game I like Price very much and was checking the line history.

    Line was -120 at pinnacle at the time of his post and moved right after. Get used to that if you are going to follow him. It bounced back to -121 for a whil.e
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I have a question, I know who the Buffetgambler is from other forums I don't know his expertize in baseball or any other sport and from what the guys say I'm sure his pick thread is worth a peak every day. But the question I have is he posted Tampa Bay at -120 from at 5:47am @ Pinnacle according to Pinnacle's history at exactly at that time it was -125 at 5:24 it was -120 now the rules clearly state that you use the line at post.

    Now pinny may not put every line change down and he may have caught the -120 at the perfect time and I'm by no means saying he didn't bet it at -120 I just happen to be looking because after looking at that game I like Price very much and was checking the line history.

    Looks like it moved at 8:47:18, likely right as he was posting. 5Dimes had -121 at the time, so he could just use that for grading, but I'm not going to bother asking him to re-grade at a penny worse when I doubt he was trying to break the rules. He's new here, so I'm sure he'll keep an eye on it going forward.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I didn't say he was trying to get over it was question that's been done by others many times, Excuse me durito but I didn't see -120 when I looked so I questioned it as I said others here have in the past so I'm not setting a precedence by asking. I hope my question didn't upset you because it sounded like it did.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I didn't say he was trying to get over it was question that's been done by others many times, Excuse me durito but I didn't see -120 when I looked so I questioned it as I said others here have in the past so I'm not setting a precedence by asking. I hope my question didn't upset you because it sounded like it did.

    If any of that was directed towards me, no worries whatsoever. This sort of thing is encouraged. We want posters to enforce the rules for each other, not leave it to the mods.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I didn't say he was trying to get over it was question that's been done by others many times, Excuse me durito but I didn't see -120 when I looked so I questioned it as I said others here have in the past so I'm not setting a precedence by asking. I hope my question didn't upset you because it sounded like it did.

    Oh I don't care, it looks like it moved within the same minute so it was easy to miss. I was just pointing out that BG is very good at this so expect the lines to move in his favor most of the time and sometimes very quickly.
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited April 2013
    Did StevieY being on Halladay at 1.06 influence your decision on this one? Or is this totally independent of his feeling on the game.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    howard overreaction
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    i dont want anyone to find this insulting but who is buffett gambler? I see alot of people that i respect posting in this thread and if ed made him his own disussion thread he must think he is legit. Can someone please enlighten me? thank you
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    minimax314 wrote: »
    Did StevieY being on Halladay at 1.06 influence your decision on this one? Or is this totally independent of his feeling on the game.

    Zero influence. Was only a matter of time before I entered a position on the Phillies. Was trying to find a good entry point. Opening line was predictably overly opportunistic on Halladay for the markets liking. The only question was how high the market was going to bid up the Cardinals. Bid up likely capped prematurely at -121/+112 once Molina and Freese was announced out of today's lineup.

    Nats overnight bid up got rejected (so far) pretty impressively. Was anticipating a secondary move that may challenge the overnight high, but Zimmerman and Espinosa's absence dampens the likelihood. The market pricing on the Mets has been coming in frothy all season and I am not sure why, especially given that their futures pricing lacked any indication this would occur. Thought their unimpressive showing in Colorado would allow the market to start unwinding that premium, but that occurrence will likely come when someone not named Harvey is pitching.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    howard overreaction

    Had nothing to do with it imo
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    howard overreaction

    I don't think the market was reacting to Howard. Have not noticed any overthrows in the past on his absence against southpaws. Quintero and Galvis are bigger downgrades to the Phillies fair value and market perceived value. I think the market move on the Phillies lineup announcement was more of a reaction towards the two players mentioned above or pent up Cards demand filling positions in anticipation of a lineup based move. In my opinion, a move that priced the Phillies out of the +100 to +109 range was likely to occur even if their lineup came in at full capacity. That price range was representative of too large of a pricing point shift for one good Halladay start in the markets eyes. Had a good chance to go higher than it did if it were not for the Cardinals lineup card coming in disappointing.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    The market pissed all over Stras, hopefully the market is wrong, GL guys
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    kane wrote: »
    The market pissed all over Stras, hopefully the market is wrong, GL guys

    The late move was likely more of a move on Harvey than a raid on Strasburg. Expecting continued exuberance into Harvey's lines as long as his results provide the appearance that new pricing points are in order. But it will probably not end well for his backers if he maintains pricing levels commensurate to yesterdays close over a longer time frame.

    Given the G1 close, bit surprised the market stretched G2 Nats price into the 50's. Even prices in the 40's are likely vulnerable to take out.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Hey BG, can we assume that your plays are always listed pitchers?
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Hey BG, can we assume that your plays are always listed pitchers?

    Yes, always.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    The Nationals are becoming the poster child of what is shaping up to be a fickle MLB market lacking the expected amount of team pricing point consistency. Nats futures were inflated more than any other NL team. Opening series pricing points provided the expected consistency to futures expectations. So did the second. The IL series was when the market decided to change course (which is starting to be a common theme with teams this year). Books trying to hold on as much as possible to original perception, but market raids attacking National lines forcing them into a slow adjustment as well. A -106 ask on Detwiler making it awfully inviting for another market attack. Lets see if a "hot" pitcher can fend off current trend, or will the market stay consistent with current Nationals valuation and price him as an underdog before close.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I see you added Washington as a play is that because of an over reaction to the Cards. I'm should there's more to it but I just wondering if that had anything to do with. To tell the Truth I thought they should have opened small dogs and almost played the Cards -08 when I got up but thought I would stand on the sidelines and see if I could get a better price. I know it's only April but the Wash bullpen isn't the same and getting rid of the two lefties in the bullpen during the off season I didn't understand and Zimmerman being out hurts more then people realize. I respect your work and your grasp of the market this bet just threw me a little.

    Posted while you were posting.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    It's a numbers game. I think the moves against the Nationals are getting a bit excessive. I was actually hoping the market would send the Nats line a little higher with Miller starting to garner support and Haren looking as poorly as he has. Hard to say if the market has undermined Zimmerman's injury giving how dynamic Nationals pricing has been, but tend to agree with you. I would have expected yesterday's number and today's number to have reached these levels even with him in given how drastic the sentiment change has been.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Now that the Game is over excellent play on Seattle, Easy Money Good Luck moving forward.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    Predictably, the market comes in to flip Detwiler into a dog. If Pinny aligns with BM, expect another attack on the Strasburg's opener.
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