Betting Talk

Buffettgambler Discussion Thread

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  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    And I stand by my comment that I am open to changing my mind. Hope I'm wrong.

    Fair enough - here's hoping you are, in a big way. Good luck.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Goats/RAS - if I am out of line for asking this question, please just delete and accept my apology in advance, but the back-and-forth with worm33 (who I definitely consider extremely sharp) got me wondering about something.....

    BG - no offense obv, but are we getting your "best" plays here - similar in quality to those that you have posted at the other place the past seasons?
  • Sam BSam B Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    There's one other in their ballpark.....probably a skosh better, actually.

    I won't ask again... I understand why you wouldn't give specifics, but then why post this in the first place?
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Sam B wrote: »
    I won't ask again... I understand why you wouldn't give specifics, but then why post this in the first place?


    You're right - I probably should not have mentioned it, considering that the rules of BT prohibit sending you to other such places. Sorry.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Goats/RAS - if I am out of line for asking this question,

    While I'm neither Goats nor Edward, I don't see anything wrong with that question. I think it's certainly a fair one.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    While I'm neither Goats nor Edward, I don't see anything wrong with that question. I think it's certainly a fair one.

    I have no problem with it either.

    As an aside, the forum needs to give Tommy some love. Just because he doesn't run an uber-successful service like Ed or have the snazzy title of "Head Mod" that I do, he does one helluva job and can answer most of the questions directed towards me and/or Ed.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    I have no problem with it either.

    As an aside, the forum needs to give Tommy some love. Just because he doesn't run an uber-successful service like Ed or have the snazzy title of "Head Mod" that I do, he does one helluva job and can answer most of the questions directed towards me and/or Ed.

    PLUS he "thanks" people, he's the entire package!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2013
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    PLUS he "thanks" people, he's the entire package!

    And here I thought that my biggest "strength" was that I'm actually online sometimes after 8pm. :)
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    TommyL wrote: »
    And here I thought that my biggest "strength" was that I'm actually online sometimes after 8pm. :)

    1. I'm usually around until at least 9pm.

    2. The forum general consensus is that I'm like 60 years old, so after my usual 4:00 dinner, how much longer do you expect me to stay up?
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    2. The forum general consensus is that I'm like 60 years old, so after my usual 4:00 dinner, how much longer do you expect me to stay up?

    gotta love the early bird special though down there in Del Boca Vista :)... you and Maury Seinfeld.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Goats/RAS - if I am out of line for asking this question, please just delete and accept my apology in advance, but the back-and-forth with worm33 (who I definitely consider extremely sharp) got me wondering about something.....

    BG - no offense obv, but are we getting your "best" plays here - similar in quality to those that you have posted at the other place the past seasons?


    Bump for BG response
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    lol way to make it comfortable for him guys

    When he won 35u last year posting mostly on gameday although lots of line moved his way he did not "crush closers" (nobody does on gameday). Treat the positions he's kind enough to post as information and use your "trading" + "line shopping" skills to maximize your bets. With Pinny having an awful vig structure this year there are comparable prices everywhere. If you expected to login here and place 3% of your roll + yield 5% on your MLB StevieY/BG bets you chose the wrong year and wrong sport.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    lol way to make it comfortable for him guys

    With Pinny having an awful vig structure this year there are comparable prices everywhere.

    Pinny's vig is the same as it was for the past decade outside of last year when it was about 1/2% less.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    ah sry was in poker before 2011

    you are saying the only year Pinny had a 6cent line for MLB was last year?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    ah sry was in poker before 2011

    you are saying the only year Pinny had a 6cent line for MLB was last year?

    It might have been 2 years, but yes it was recent development. It was actually 10c at one pt if memory serves me right.

    For all the talk of reduced limits, cut offerings, since last fall, the limits were just as badly reduced (and there were 0 props on usa sports etc) for several years after they closed postup to the usa in 2006. It was only around 2010 that things suddenly started increasing again.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    another one that went unnoticed was Matchbook moving from MLB ML's 0.75% accept commission/0.25% offer commission to 1% across the board.
  • SquigglySquiggly Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Please keep posting BG.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Bump for BG response

    Wasn't necessarily giving out "best" plays elsewhere either, but no matter where I post, the posted plays have a certain amount of perceived +EV to post it.

    Given the playground like environment the screen has become, there will likely be some leakage in regards to optimal entry points for some of the posted lines (especially game 1 of series).

    Give me some time guys. About half of these posted losses have been 8th/9th inning blown leads and/or extra inning losses.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Tough crowd after 20 plays best of luck moving forward. I posted this in the wrong Thread. My apologies and if a mod would please delete my post in BG pick thread I would appreciate it. Thanks in Advance.
  • namathfannamathfan Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Those of us that have followed you at different sites certainly appreciate you posting your picks here. Thanks.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Buffett,

    Dodgers - 1.47 now -1.58 I cant understand how you see that +EV on Beckett.

    You know why the redsox traded him right?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    Buffett,

    Dodgers - 1.47 now -1.58 I cant understand how you see that +EV on Beckett.

    You know why the redsox traded him right?

    What's your FV?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Beckett shouldn't be any higher than 1.40 in this game.
  • eggmaneggman Junior Member
    edited April 2013
    Wanted to thank the "sharpies" in here for the solid posts, particulary the thorough explanation on why NOT to hedge out on 2 conflicting plays from guys you follow. Up until this morning I was tailing 2 people in bases, now 4, thanks to Edward's post earlier today. Looking forward to following SteveyY and BuffettGambler this season, been a pretty steady season for me thus far, glad to be a part of the site.
  • SquigglySquiggly Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    eggman wrote: »
    Up until this morning I was tailing 2 people in bases, now 4, thanks to Edward's post earlier today. Looking forward to following SteveyY and BuffettGambler this season, been a pretty steady season for me thus far, glad to be a part of the site.

    What post of Edward earlier today are you referring to?
    (Did a search but couldn't find any post by him today).
  • eggmaneggman Junior Member
    edited April 2013
    He posted something, I think in his NCAA 2h plays thread or his tournament thread that I was subscribed to and I got an email.
  • buckeyesbuckeyes Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    eggman wrote: »
    He posted something, I think in his NCAA 2h plays thread or his tournament thread that I was subscribed to and I got an email.

    I believe you're referring to a tweet he sent out today.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    Beckett shouldn't be any higher than 1.40 in this game.

    I thought today his numbers were right on IMO there where I though they were supposed to be except Detroit at -167 was a little cheap. but I can't lay that kind of price that's why I wish him best but I can't follow. It's just not in my DNA . I do agree with wraps and believe the Beckett price should even be a tad lower but meanwhile there laying it. the Angels at -148 is fine IMO. I get headaches when I lay those kind of numbers.
    I wish you the best.
  • eggmaneggman Junior Member
    edited April 2013
    You're right, my bad.
  • SquigglySquiggly Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I thought today his numbers were right on IMO there where I though they were supposed to be except Detroit at -167 was a little cheap... the Angels at -148 is fine IMO.

    What methodology are you using to determine what the correct moneyline price is on a game?
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