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Buffettgambler Discussion Thread

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  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    So in your mind nolasco>>>>>>j Fernandez?
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    So in your mind nolasco>>>>>>j Fernandez?

    Not necessarily, but does require a higher margin of safety. Also less likely to post positions on or against rookie pitchers.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    I guess Pinny got the memo from the market - "adjust your price on the Nationals or it will get adjusted for you". Breaks from other books openers. All other breaks for tomorrows card appear more attuned to market pricing as well.
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited April 2013
    It's such a bizaare happenstance lol to follow 2 (and just 2) people for baseball pretty equally, and hence to be placing a bet on the cubs at 12:07 and then on the reds at 12:29.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    minimax314 wrote: »
    It's such a bizaare happenstance lol to follow 2 (and just 2) people for baseball pretty equally, and hence to be placing a bet on the cubs at 12:07 and then on the reds at 12:29.

    So u just decided to Freeroll yourself?
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    So u just decided to Freeroll yourself?

    I gave Pinny 80 bucks and got out. I "think" that's optimal if following 2 people equally? But I have no real confidence in this decision and am very amenable to learning. I did the opposite (placed double on the Phillies on 4/19) when Y and BG were on the same side.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    BG,

    I see that you play some large favorites and was wondering if you have a limit on the size of the favorite that you'll play or do you feel as long as there's value in the line there is no limit. Personally I think this line opened a short and has settle in with still a little (very little) room to go higher.
    I guess if there's value in a line no matter the price over long term it can be profitable but of course at those prices you really have to trust your numbers and be certain that there is value. but I find it very hard to even go past -140 which if I do it's a rare occurrence.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    BG,

    I see that you play some large favorites and was wondering if you have a limit on the size of the favorite that you'll play or do you feel as long as there's value in the line there is no limit. Personally I think this line opened a short and has settle in with still a little (very little) room to go higher.
    I guess if there's value in a line no matter the price over long term it can be profitable but of course at those prices you really have to trust your numbers and be certain that there is value. but I find it very hard to even go past -140 which if I do it's a rare occurrence.

    No limit. Actually prefer betting into larger favorites (keeping edge constant) due to variance reduction.
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited April 2013
    minimax314 wrote: »
    I gave Pinny 80 bucks and got out. I "think" that's optimal if following 2 people equally? But I have no real confidence in this decision and am very amenable to learning. I did the opposite (placed double on the Phillies on 4/19) when Y and BG were on the same side.

    This was unclear...

    So 1000->1550 on the cubs, then 1630->1000 on the reds, hence hedging out of the bet completely and 'giving pinny 80 bucks' for their trouble. iow I was just referring to hedging out completely.

    This would theoretically be the logical/optimal way to follow B and Y simultaneously (and equally), right? So, if Y and B, then bet 2. If Y and -B, then hedge out and bet 0 (and donate the juice to curacao)?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    minimax314 wrote: »
    This was unclear...

    So 1000->1550 on the cubs, then 1630->1000 on the reds, hence hedging out of the bet completely and 'giving pinny 80 bucks' for their trouble. iow I was just referring to hedging out completely.

    This would theoretically be the logical/optimal way to follow B and Y simultaneously (and equally), right? So, if Y and B, then bet 2. If Y and -B, then hedge out and bet 0 (and donate the juice to curacao)?

    First, you didn't really donate $80. You set up your "hedge" so that you would lose $0 if CIN won and $80 if CHI won. Second, if you are assuming that neither side has an edge once the two cappers you're following disagree, the optimal move is actually to just let the first bet ride. I'll give you an easier example using -110 lines (it's slightly more complicated using larger ML's)...

    If you bet $1100/1000 on side A and then hedge out with $1100/1000 on side B, you guarantee yourself an EV of -$100. Since you must consider each side to be a 50% bet in this example, if you simply let the initial side stand alone, it will win one out of every two times in the long run, so every time they disagree, your EV is -$50 instead of -$100, as you will win $1000 half the time and lose $1100 half the time (an EV of -$50 per disagreement).

    I know it feels better to eliminate the variance, but based on EV, you should let the initial bet ride if you can't come up with a +EV or neutral EV way to get off the first bet.

    I don't have the math to explain your other issue, but I am 99% certain betting twice as much because two cappers you respect agree is non-optimal as well. My experience and general knowledge tell me you are vastly overbetting as your edge will not suddenly double.

    Hopefully someone sharper than I am will chime in to expound on my thoughts. I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain I'm not (from an EV standpoint).
  • lakers22lakers22 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I don't venture outside this forum, but why would anyone hedge out on a SY play? Does this gamble buffet have a solid record elsewhere before coming to BT...not trying to start anything just curious why buffet gamble is worthy of a SY hedgeout....
  • minimax314minimax314 Member
    edited April 2013
    Goats wrote: »
    First, you didn't really donate $80. You set up your "hedge" so that you would lose $0 if CIN won and $80 if CHI won. Second, if you are assuming that neither side has an edge once the two cappers you're following disagree, the optimal move is actually to just let the first bet ride. I'll give you an easier example using -110 lines (it's slightly more complicated using larger ML's)...

    If you bet $1100/1000 on side A and then hedge out with $1100/1000 on side B, you guarantee yourself an EV of -$100. Since you must consider each side to be a 50% bet in this example, if you simply let the initial side stand alone, it will win one out of every two times in the long run, so every time they disagree, your EV is -$50 instead of -$100, as you will win $1000 half the time and lose $1100 half the time (an EV of -$50 per disagreement).

    I know it feels better to eliminate the variance, but based on EV, you should let the initial bet ride if you can't come up with a +EV or neutral EV way to get off the first bet.

    I don't have the math to explain your other issue, but I am 99% certain betting twice as much because two cappers you respect agree is non-optimal as well. My experience and general knowledge tell me you are vastly overbetting as your edge will not suddenly double.

    Hopefully someone sharper than I am will chime in to expound on my thoughts. I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain I'm not (from an EV standpoint).

    Wow, thanks so much for this. Sounds so trivial now, but I just never thought about it. I'd rather max(ev) than min(variance) by a mile, so have no idea why I'm doing this as I am. I guess I got lost in the thought of "ah, let me just get out of it then".

    Based on your answer I now also see that my betting 2ble when they like the same play is likely to be a poor idea too.

    So glad I signed up here.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    4/25
    Washington -136
    Dbacks -130

    Both of those got faded within a minute of your post
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    What am I missing, don't see it

    909 Colorado @ 910 Arizona
    04/25/13 07:40pm
    Time
    Colorado
    Arizona
    04/25/13 08:04:03am
    +119
    -129
    04/25/13 06:32:11am
    +120
    -130

    905 Cincinnati @ 906 Washington
    04/25/13 05:05pm
    Time
    Cincinnati
    Washington
    04/25/13 07:08:42am
    +126
    -136
    04/25/13 07:08:24am
    +125
    -135
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    lakers22 wrote: »
    I don't venture outside this forum, but why would anyone hedge out on a SY play? Does this gamble buffet have a solid record elsewhere before coming to BT...not trying to start anything just curious why buffet gamble is worthy of a SY hedgeout....

    I'd bet the same % on BG as I would SY. Maybe there are others posting stuff for free as good as these guys but I haven't found them.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    I'd bet the same % on BG as I would SY. Maybe there are others posting stuff for free as good as these guys but I haven't found them.

    Really? I haven't been around other forums but based on small sample size I would have to respectfully disagree.
  • namathfannamathfan Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    I think the key words are "but based on a small sample size"

    BG has been +EV around different forums for a long time.

    Just my 2 cents
  • lakers22lakers22 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Lumpy or Buffet..is there a posted record else where that you could tell us about..interested to know Buffets record prior to joining here at BT..
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    I'd bet the same % on BG as I would SY. Maybe there are others posting stuff for free as good as these guys but I haven't found them.


    There's one other in their ballpark.....probably a skosh better, actually.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Really? I haven't been around other forums but based on small sample size I would have to respectfully disagree.

    Here's the key to that statement.
  • Sam BSam B Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    There's one other in their ballpark.....probably a skosh better, actually.

    How about a hint?
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    kdog wrote: »
    Here's the key to that statement.

    We will see I guess but so far, I would book it
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    We will see I guess but so far, I would book it


    You are saying that you would "book" Buffett?!? cray cray
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    You are saying that you would "book" Buffett?!? cray cray

    Im already out of line for coming in the guys thread and coming down on his plays so im not going to say anymore, I just felt compelled to throw my 2 cents in there for the people comparing him to Stevie. Like I said small sample size etc so I could change my mind just my opinion in the current situation.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Im already out of line for coming in the guys thread and coming down on his plays so im not going to say anymore, I just felt compelled to throw my 2 cents in there for the people comparing him to Stevie. Like I said small sample size etc so I could change my mind just my opinion in the current situation.


    So let me guess, you'd be willing to book RAS after he hits a "cold" patch of 10 or so plays as well? Wow, you oughta get out more, I didn't realize his posting had been so secluded the past few years. I guarantee you that if you asked RAS, he'd put BG right there with SY.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    So let me guess, you'd be willing to book RAS after he hits a "cold" patch of 10 or so plays as well? Wow, you oughta get out more, I didn't realize his posting had been so secluded the past few years. I guarantee you that if you asked RAS, he'd put BG right there with SY.

    Ha yeh that's why. The cold stretch, u know me. U should open up your narrow mind a little.
  • buckeyesbuckeyes Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    There's one other in their ballpark.....probably a skosh better, actually.

    Are you talking about George perhaps?
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2013
    Keep it civil guys. I'm pretty sure Worm was basing his opinion on the plays he's seen, not the results, and he's already admitted to having no prior knowledge of BG and his opinion being based on a small sample and subject to change. He's also admitted to being out of line as well.

    Keep it constructive or move on please.
  • JalapanoseJalapanose Banned
    edited April 2013
    worm33 wrote: »
    Ha yeh that's why. The cold stretch, u know me. U should open up your narrow mind a little.


    Hey, I am more than happy to admit when I am wrong and learn. And granted that past results don't necessarily guarantee future results....but his track record across all sports makes him one of only a handful that are worth blindly following IMO. I'll take my chances that he didn't just "lose it" overnight and I certainly am not gonna subscribe that there is something nefarious going on.

    I stand by my assertion that you'd be insane to book his stuff. It's early.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited April 2013
    Jalapanose wrote: »
    Hey, I am more than happy to admit when I am wrong and learn. And granted that past results don't necessarily guarantee future results....but his track record across all sports makes him one of only a handful that are worth blindly following IMO. I'll take my chances that he didn't just "lose it" overnight and I certainly am not gonna subscribe that there is something nefarious going on.

    I stand by my assertion that you'd be insane to book his stuff. It's early.

    And I stand by my comment that I am open to changing my mind. Hope I'm wrong.
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