The Stoffo System
Old-Timer
Senior Member
#1 Eliminate any underdog that is priced higher than +150 "Those are No Plays"
#2 Eliminate any underdog that has lost 3 or more games straight.
#3 Eliminate any underdog that is facing a team that has won 3 or more straight.
#4 Eliminate any underdog that is facing a starting pitcher ranked 20th or better according to Jeff Sagarin's adjusted ERAs (www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarins.htm)
#5 Play on every underdog that hasn't been eliminated by rules 1-4 above.
For Totals:
If both teams have starting pitchers ranked 20th or better in the Sagarin ratings play "Under"
#2 Eliminate any underdog that has lost 3 or more games straight.
#3 Eliminate any underdog that is facing a team that has won 3 or more straight.
#4 Eliminate any underdog that is facing a starting pitcher ranked 20th or better according to Jeff Sagarin's adjusted ERAs (www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarins.htm)
#5 Play on every underdog that hasn't been eliminated by rules 1-4 above.
For Totals:
If both teams have starting pitchers ranked 20th or better in the Sagarin ratings play "Under"
Comments
Underdog Thread from years past
Pitcher Specifics:
1) Both starting pitchers must have made at least 3 starts. This is why the true system does not start until about the 15th game (or during the 3rd week) of the season.
2) If a pitcher is coming off the DL, back from the minors, or off a trip to the bullpen, he must make at least 1 restart to requalify
3) As long as a pitcher meets the 3 start, and other requirements, they qualify regardless of the number of innings pitched. these pitchers can be in either the "A", "B", or "C" list on the Sagarin daily ratings
PS OT- I have always used the A-B and C Sagarin groups, and the results I posted earlier, were based upon those criteria. Also, after the All-Star break, the system goes on hiatus with the rest of MLB and pitchers must make 1 start before the system starts up again
I find it interesting that playing the Stoffo unders for the first 5 innings would be disastrous compared to the full-game unders. I say that because the Stoffo unders are predicated on good starting pitching, and it seems somewhat logical to me that one of the concerns would be the bullpens giving up late inning runs when those "good" starters may have been removed from the game. Anyway, based upon lines from Pinny at the time of post, playing the Stoffo unders for the 1st 5 innings would be YTD: 63-57-5, -.69 units. As compared to the fullgame unders wich are: 77-45-3, +29.24 units.
OT--this was posted at Sports Forum World (the old SFW) on 8/15/10. I realize that this was a small sample based on results only from April to Aug 15th, 2010
Thank you for the reminders I will save this thread and as I was reading them it was coming back to me. What I find amazing is the comparison between the 1st 5 and the full game. I understand the sample size is small but I'm thinking of staying with the full game only and see how it goes. Thank you for your time and it's always a pleasure to talk to you. Stay healthy, be safe and make money, come on how hard is that. Thanks again.
You and me both brother...
You mean like auto-playing unders in cold weather?
SU: 38-38 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -105.7 / -105.7 on / against: -$140 / -$140 ROI: -1.5% / -1.5%
RL: 38-38 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -106.4 / -106.4 on / against: -$207 / -$207 ROI: -2.1% / -2.1%
OU: 30-44-2 (-0.41, 40.5%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$1,780 / +$1,030 ROI: -21.6% / +12.1%
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/significant.png
I understand the point you're trying to make, but your numbers are not statistically significant. What if 20% of those games played in cold weather, were played by teams whose best batters we're injured at the time? Or maybe that half of those cold-weather games were played by 5 of the most offensively challenged teams the league had last year.
i'll 5Dimes and Heritage know.
Hey Obie,
Understand what you are saying sir. Still subscribe to EMT. So 99.89% or so of knowable information is known and baked into the line. Made this point in the other thread, there is most certainly a floor where openers and Totals are concerned. You will never, ever, ever, ever, never see an opener in the AL at 6.5 or lower based on the temp. So until I stop beating the closer by 20 cents or a half run (which i think happened 3 or 4 times already) then I will pursue. We are talking nearly 600 games since 2000 and yet the significance is still in question?
My average line this season is -102.something.
It does not get more basic than winning percentage >52.5 and avg price < 103.
In the end the back and forth will never end. But here is a question, not directed at you Obi, that will go unanswered....
Did I win?
I appreciate your input Obi.
The Stoffo unders have been pretty stagnant the past 3 years 2017 +.1 units, 2016 +4.7 units and 2015 +3.7 units.. I don't start tracking the system until the starting pitchers have 3 starts for the current year ( this was one of the original guidelines). If you applied the Stoffo system so far YTD using last year's pitching stats it would sit at 23-17-2 +4.3 units. Last year the Stoffo sides had a banner year with +49.5 units. but 2016 was +4.7 units and 2015 +3.2 units. Also, it should be noted that the aforementioned annual statistics are based on the most favorable lines I had available (obviously, because that's what I would play them at) and would not as accurately reflect totals based on closing, widely-available lines
can't find pitcher rating...hope you are well, OT
go to USA today, or easier yet just google Sagarin
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/sagarin/2018/al-pitcher/
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/sagarin/2018/nl-pitcher/
Just to show what a difference that makes, tracking these at 5Dimes closers produced -11.51 units for 2017 and -8.97 for 2016. I can't find my 2015 but I'm sure everyone gets the idea. Tip...if you are going to play the totals the opener is usually the best number you will see.
Hey Jake good hearing from you. I had cataract surgery a little over a year ago. Nothing to it brother. Funny Im in a small pool where you draft three teams and most wins takes it down. I had first pick took the Astros and then had to wait for the #18 pick and you know who I picked. All in the Family PITTSBURGH PIRATES!!! Had them today also at +145. Sleeper team this year. Maybe not a playoff team but theyll keep you interested and you never know. Take care of yourself one of the goodguys.
Jake Junis #1 in the AL and Jameson Taillon #1 in the NL...must be early...
Hope not. Taillon is my boy.
he's a great story, and they could use one there...
not sure if it's a stoffo rule, but i've never done well with inter-league stoffos.