Betting Talk

Calculate CLV for baseball

CoopsCoops Senior Member
edited July 2014 in Sports Betting
What is the proper way to calculate?

I've tracked it for all my plays and want to display it, but dont know the proper formula.

For Example, I posted Twins +127 from Pinny yesterday and it closed @ 109, so I had 18cents in my favor. How do I post this in a netted way for all my plays?

I have beaten the spread by a total of 63 cents on 9 combined plays, so its a net of 7 cents a game, is this how I would represent it?

Thanks in advance, just trying to get more numbers in my spreadsheet.
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Comments

  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    What is the proper way to calculate?

    I've tracked it for all my plays and want to display it, but dont know the proper formula.

    For Example, I posted Twins +127 from Pinny yesterday and it closed @ 109, so I had 18cents in my favor. How do I post this in a netted way for all my plays?

    I have beaten the spread by a total of 63 cents on 9 combined plays, so its a net of 7 cents a game, is this how I would represent it?

    Thanks in advance, just trying to get more numbers in my spreadsheet.

    Yes..
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited April 2012
    As it's a money-line sport I think you'd be better off looking at the % value of the line moves - that is, there is a big difference in worth between a 10c move from +100 to -110 compared with +200 to +190, for example.

    I'd also suggest that looking at the median number rather than the mean in your sample set would be more representative for your purposes.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2012
    -Clint- wrote: »
    As it's a money-line sport I think you'd be better off looking at the % value of the line moves - that is, there is a big difference in worth between a 10c move from +100 to -110 compared with +200 to +190, for example.

    I'd also suggest that looking at the median number rather than the mean in your sample set would be more representative for your purposes.

    While I'm not a math guy, this definitely makes sense, especially the first part. As pointed out, getting -190 on something that closes -200 isn't nearly as beneficial as getting +100 on something that closes -110.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2012
    FWIW, I'd also use Pinny's closer as they are widely accepted as having the sharpest lines and largest limits... not to mention that BM/CRIS uses a 20c line for MLB which is horrendous (although they do occasionally offer a good line).
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Goats wrote: »
    FWIW, I'd also use Pinny's closer as they are widely accepted as having the sharpest lines and largest limits... not to mention that BM/CRIS uses a 20c line for MLB which is horrendous (although they do occasionally offer a good line).

    Ok, early enough in season to amend the numbers, thanks.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    -Clint- wrote: »
    As it's a money-line sport I think you'd be better off looking at the % value of the line moves - that is, there is a big difference in worth between a 10c move from +100 to -110 compared with +200 to +190, for example.

    I'd also suggest that looking at the median number rather than the mean in your sample set would be more representative for your purposes.

    Agree with everything here.
  • topplayertopplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    More importantly.....What is your record on the 9 games?
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    topplayer wrote: »
    More importantly.....What is your record on the 9 games?

    CLV is more important, imo.
  • topplayertopplayer Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Not me.... I would rather go 75-25 on record than beat the Closing line 75 out of 100 and have a record of 40-60...JMO
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    topplayer wrote: »
    Not me.... I would rather go 75-25 on record than beat the Closing line 75 out of 100 and have a record of 40-60...JMO

    Let me rephrase/clarify. I thnk CLV is a much better indicator of future success than record. If a poster is 10-25 but consistently beating the close, I have much more faith in him than someone that is 25-10 but the market consistently pisses on him.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime"
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Agree with top player, CLV means shit to me if I'm losing games. At the end of the day, I care about units won, CLV won't pay my bar tab at the end of a night, but a 5 unit win will.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited April 2012
    Let me rephrase/clarify. I thnk CLV is a much better indicator of future success than record. If a poster is 10-25 but consistently beating the close, I have much more faith in him than someone that is 25-10 but the market consistently pisses on him.

    Agree 100%.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    On the subject of CLV-- does anybody have stats on football, basketball, vs MLB? I would think CLV means much more (in terms of wins and losses) in the sports with point spreads vs a $$ line sport.
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Not sure I agree with that Dogs. In ML sports the difference can be noticeable on every single result. If you're following a StevieY and aren't getting his numbers, your results will be considerably different.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    -Clint- wrote: »
    As it's a money-line sport I think you'd be better off looking at the % value of the line moves - that is, there is a big difference in worth between a 10c move from +100 to -110 compared with +200 to +190, for example.

    I'd also suggest that looking at the median number rather than the mean in your sample set would be more representative for your purposes.

    So take the difference between my posted line and pinny close and divide by pinny close and display as percentage?
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited April 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    So take the difference between my posted line and pinny close and divide by pinny close and display as percentage?

    No - convert your line to a % and the Pinnacle close to a % and record the difference between the two.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    -Clint- wrote: »
    No - convert your line to a % and the Pinnacle close to a % and record the difference between the two.

    I'd think working in finance I'd know how to do this, but alas, no clue.

    So say I posted mets -150 and it closed at -170.... Show me this formula.
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited April 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    I'd think working in finance I'd know how to do this, but alas, no clue.

    So say I posted mets -150 and it closed at -170.... Show me this formula.

    Convert to a decimal line first:

    (Divide the ML by 100) +1 for greater than -101 lines

    (Divide 100 by inverse of -line) +1 for -101 and shorter lines

    Divide 100 by the decimal line = percent line.

    So your example:

    (100/150) +1 = 1.667
    100/1.667 = 59.98%

    (100/170)+1 = 1.588
    100/1.588 = 62.97%

    62.97 - 59.98 = +2.99% CLV (%)
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    ^^ Yeah.

    If your playing a fave:

    Your line / (Your line - 100) = Your %.
    Pinny close / (Pinny close - 100) = Pinny %.
    Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %

    Example: You post -150, it closes -160
    Your % = -150 / (-150 - 100) = .60
    Pinny % = -160/ (-160 - 100) = .615
    CLV percentage = (0.615-0.6)/0.615 = 0.025 = 2.5%


    If playing a dog,
    100/(Your line + 100) = Your %
    100/(Pinny close +100) = Pinny %
    Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %

    Example: You post +150, it closes +180
    100/(150+100) = .4 = Your %
    100/(180+100) = .357 = Pinny %
    CLV percentage = (.357 - .4) / .357 = -.12 = -12%


    I also agree that the median is a better representation than the mean because this will be a skewed distribution and we don't want outliers to affect it.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Ok so Clint posted how to find the straight difference in your % and Pinny %. I posted how to find the percent increase or decrease because you had mentioned that earlier (divide by the Pinny close). Either is fine imo, and his is simpler. Mine would give you a wider distribution, his will give you a smaller one. As long as you know what each mean, they're both valid and useful.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    ^^ Yeah.

    If your playing a fave:

    Your line / (Your line - 100) = Your %.
    Pinny close / (Pinny close - 100) = Pinny %.
    Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %

    Example: You post -150, it closes -160
    Your % = -150 / (-150 - 100) = .60
    Pinny % = -160/ (-160 - 100) = .615
    CLV percentage = (.615 - .6) / .6 = .025 = 2.5%


    If playing a dog,
    100/(Your line + 100) = Your %
    100/(Pinny close +100) = Pinny %
    Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %

    Example: You post +150, it closes +180
    100/(150+100) = .4 = Your %
    100/(180+100) = .357 = Pinny %
    CLV percentage = (.357 - .4) / .357 = -.12 = -12%


    I also agree that the median is a better representation than the mean because this will be a skewed distribution and we don't want outliers to affect it.

    Thanks Jeff. This worked fine until i had 2 dogs that turned to favorites, then the % blew up.
    Happened twice 2day, posted Blue Jays +101, closed at -116. Posted Red Sox +102, closed at -104.

    What do I do in formula to fix this?
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited April 2012
    Ok so Clint posted how to find the straight difference in your % and Pinny %. I posted how to find the percent increase or decrease because you had mentioned that earlier (divide by the Pinny close). Either is fine imo, and his is simpler. Mine would give you a wider distribution, his will give you a smaller one. As long as you know what each mean, they're both valid and useful.

    Oops - I should have clarified that. Thanks!

    The most useful aspect of analysing the raw % difference in the scenario I posted is if you are confident the handicapper is, say, 54% long-term, you know that you can (*should be able to*) afford to play at up to -1.5% worse than their line and still have something resembling a break-even bet at worst.

    And you can adjust your own stake if you're confident that greater percentage differences in your favour merit it.
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Coops:

    Jays +101 = 100/201 = .502
    Jays -116 = 116/216 = .537

    (.537 - .502) / .537 = .065 = 6.5%
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited April 2012
    ^^ Yeah.

    If your playing a fave:

    Your line / (Your line - 100) = Your %.
    Pinny close / (Pinny close - 100) = Pinny %.
    Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %

    Example: You post -150, it closes -160
    Your % = -150 / (-150 - 100) = .60
    Pinny % = -160/ (-160 - 100) = .615
    CLV percentage = (.615 - .6) / .6 = .025 = 2.5%


    If playing a dog,
    100/(Your line + 100) = Your %
    100/(Pinny close +100) = Pinny %
    Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %

    Example: You post +150, it closes +180
    100/(150+100) = .4 = Your %
    100/(180+100) = .357 = Pinny %
    CLV percentage = (.357 - .4) / .357 = -.12 = -12%


    I also agree that the median is a better representation than the mean because this will be a skewed distribution and we don't want outliers to affect it.

    By the way, there's an error in your layout Jeff (not the maths, but how you've written it): in your fave scenario, the Pinnacle % is .615 so the answer of 2.5% is correct but the preceding sum isn't listed correctly.

    Should read (0.615-0.6)/0.615 = 0.025 = 2.5%
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    can i pay someone to do this for me? this shits a pain in the ass. I think ive beat then line so far this season, maybe when im at work monday ill deal with setting these formulas up, but not tonight...

    This is how I've fared so far:

    POSTED LINE CLOSING LINE


    -130 -128





    -145 -140
    -119 -114
    136 122
    -145 -150

    115 119
    -175 -181
    127 109
    118 114
    -116 -127
    136 140
    -200 -210

    -116 -121
    -120 -106
    145 136
    101 -116
    102 -104
    -185 -179
    120 109
  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    -Clint- wrote: »
    By the way, there's an error in your layout Jeff (not the maths, but how you've written it): in your fave scenario, the Pinnacle % is .615 so the answer of 2.5% is correct but the preceding sum isn't listed correctly.

    Should read (0.615-0.6)/0.615 = 0.025 = 2.5%

    Good catch. Yes, that's correct. If a mod could edit that and fix it, that'd be great.
  • -Clint--Clint- Junior Member
    edited April 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    can i pay someone to do this for me? this shits a pain in the ass. I think ive beat then line so far this season, maybe when im at work monday ill deal with setting these formulas up, but not tonight...

    This is how I've fared so far:

    POSTED LINE CLOSING LINE


    -130 -128





    -145 -140
    -119 -114
    136 122
    -145 -150

    115 119
    -175 -181
    127 109
    118 114
    -116 -127
    136 140
    -200 -210

    -116 -121
    -120 -106
    145 136
    101 -116
    102 -104
    -185 -179
    120 109

    -0.68%





    -1.46%
    -2.00%
    5.93%
    1.36%
    2.50%
    -1.86%
    1.21%
    7.93%
    1.83%
    4.01%
    -1.69%
    1.59%

    1.91%
    -6.00%
    3.67%
    7.36%
    2.89%
    -1.18%
    5.00%


    Median % = 1.71%
    Mean % = 1.62%

    We can discuss payment for this later.
  • Matteo5Matteo5 Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    OK, I've been tailing this thread. Can already tell you, too much math for me, but thanks for all your insight. However, just what does the median and mean percentage mean for Coops. I am assuming this is good as it seems to me that he has been on fire for two days here. Thanks in advance for the insight.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited April 2012
    Median and mean are math terms...

    Definitions:

    Median: The middle value of a set of values.

    Mean: The arithmetic average, computed by adding up a collection
    of numbers and dividing by their count.
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