Calculate CLV for baseball
Coops
Senior Member
What is the proper way to calculate?
I've tracked it for all my plays and want to display it, but dont know the proper formula.
For Example, I posted Twins +127 from Pinny yesterday and it closed @ 109, so I had 18cents in my favor. How do I post this in a netted way for all my plays?
I have beaten the spread by a total of 63 cents on 9 combined plays, so its a net of 7 cents a game, is this how I would represent it?
Thanks in advance, just trying to get more numbers in my spreadsheet.
I've tracked it for all my plays and want to display it, but dont know the proper formula.
For Example, I posted Twins +127 from Pinny yesterday and it closed @ 109, so I had 18cents in my favor. How do I post this in a netted way for all my plays?
I have beaten the spread by a total of 63 cents on 9 combined plays, so its a net of 7 cents a game, is this how I would represent it?
Thanks in advance, just trying to get more numbers in my spreadsheet.
Comments
Yes..
I'd also suggest that looking at the median number rather than the mean in your sample set would be more representative for your purposes.
While I'm not a math guy, this definitely makes sense, especially the first part. As pointed out, getting -190 on something that closes -200 isn't nearly as beneficial as getting +100 on something that closes -110.
Ok, early enough in season to amend the numbers, thanks.
Agree with everything here.
CLV is more important, imo.
Let me rephrase/clarify. I thnk CLV is a much better indicator of future success than record. If a poster is 10-25 but consistently beating the close, I have much more faith in him than someone that is 25-10 but the market consistently pisses on him.
Agree 100%.
So take the difference between my posted line and pinny close and divide by pinny close and display as percentage?
No - convert your line to a % and the Pinnacle close to a % and record the difference between the two.
I'd think working in finance I'd know how to do this, but alas, no clue.
So say I posted mets -150 and it closed at -170.... Show me this formula.
Convert to a decimal line first:
(Divide the ML by 100) +1 for greater than -101 lines
(Divide 100 by inverse of -line) +1 for -101 and shorter lines
Divide 100 by the decimal line = percent line.
So your example:
(100/150) +1 = 1.667
100/1.667 = 59.98%
(100/170)+1 = 1.588
100/1.588 = 62.97%
62.97 - 59.98 = +2.99% CLV (%)
If your playing a fave:
Your line / (Your line - 100) = Your %.
Pinny close / (Pinny close - 100) = Pinny %.
Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %
Example: You post -150, it closes -160
Your % = -150 / (-150 - 100) = .60
Pinny % = -160/ (-160 - 100) = .615
CLV percentage = (0.615-0.6)/0.615 = 0.025 = 2.5%
If playing a dog,
100/(Your line + 100) = Your %
100/(Pinny close +100) = Pinny %
Then do (Pinny % - Your %) / Pinny %
Example: You post +150, it closes +180
100/(150+100) = .4 = Your %
100/(180+100) = .357 = Pinny %
CLV percentage = (.357 - .4) / .357 = -.12 = -12%
I also agree that the median is a better representation than the mean because this will be a skewed distribution and we don't want outliers to affect it.
Thanks Jeff. This worked fine until i had 2 dogs that turned to favorites, then the % blew up.
Happened twice 2day, posted Blue Jays +101, closed at -116. Posted Red Sox +102, closed at -104.
What do I do in formula to fix this?
Oops - I should have clarified that. Thanks!
The most useful aspect of analysing the raw % difference in the scenario I posted is if you are confident the handicapper is, say, 54% long-term, you know that you can (*should be able to*) afford to play at up to -1.5% worse than their line and still have something resembling a break-even bet at worst.
And you can adjust your own stake if you're confident that greater percentage differences in your favour merit it.
Jays +101 = 100/201 = .502
Jays -116 = 116/216 = .537
(.537 - .502) / .537 = .065 = 6.5%
By the way, there's an error in your layout Jeff (not the maths, but how you've written it): in your fave scenario, the Pinnacle % is .615 so the answer of 2.5% is correct but the preceding sum isn't listed correctly.
Should read (0.615-0.6)/0.615 = 0.025 = 2.5%
This is how I've fared so far:
POSTED LINE CLOSING LINE
-130 -128
-145 -140
-119 -114
136 122
-145 -150
115 119
-175 -181
127 109
118 114
-116 -127
136 140
-200 -210
-116 -121
-120 -106
145 136
101 -116
102 -104
-185 -179
120 109
Good catch. Yes, that's correct. If a mod could edit that and fix it, that'd be great.
-0.68%
-1.46%
-2.00%
5.93%
1.36%
2.50%
-1.86%
1.21%
7.93%
1.83%
4.01%
-1.69%
1.59%
1.91%
-6.00%
3.67%
7.36%
2.89%
-1.18%
5.00%
Median % = 1.71%
Mean % = 1.62%
We can discuss payment for this later.
Definitions:
Median: The middle value of a set of values.
Mean: The arithmetic average, computed by adding up a collection
of numbers and dividing by their count.