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  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Recent opinion on OPK (middle comment) that I was mentioning

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072391-these-innovative-biotech-stocks-are-beginning-to-build-momentum?source=yahoo

    this is very similar to MNKD whereby the company has a large percentage of short interest against the float and the extremely wealthy CEO keeps buying in on their belief of their company/product and they both have a proven track record. Of course there are no guarantees but I would rather tail the one that has demonstrated success in the past (ie., a successful capper/bettor) than follow the shorts in this case. The shorts can be really short if they're naked and have to deliver when the CEO comes "calling" thus the potential for great upside. Again, it's spec so don't throw the kitchen sink at it but rather as in betting what you can afford to lose without a meaningful hit to your lifestyle. -R
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    TheReb wrote: »
    Have a trigger in for the following @ 20 to open @ .70, gives an extra week (although holidays in there) but if you look at the open interest in the ones you were buying today it's the largest open interest for the strike so given that the market tries to exude the most pain come expiration figured it will settle pretty close to 1450 come friday...thus taking the extra few days for a hopeful annual holiday pop in thin trading ;-)


    Contract Expiration Dec 28, 2012 Days to Expiration 9
    Bid 0.79 B/A size 1142X10
    Ask 0.80 Last size 1
    Last 0.77 Last trade Wed Dec 19 2012 15:00:43
    Change -0.31 Open 1.18
    Change % -28.70% Close 1.08
    Volume 15,820 High 1.18
    Open interest 27,200 Low 0.73

    Alright Coops, I'm in just got the fill confirm

    Filled Buy to Open 20 SPY Dec 28 2012 145.0 Call Limit 0.70 -- -- 15:51:30 12/19/12

    This one's on you lol, as if I didn't have enough to sweat with everything else going on...can never get enough action :)
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    TheReb wrote: »
    Alright Coops, I'm in just got the fill confirm

    Filled Buy to Open 20 SPY Dec 28 2012 145.0 Call Limit 0.70 -- -- 15:51:30 12/19/12

    This one's on you lol, as if I didn't have enough to sweat with everything else going on...can never get enough action :)

    lol, i think you can get out by Friday. Mine are at .24 cents right now, lol. Expect a nice rally tomorrow.

    As for the penny stocks, i treat them like big dogs in betting, i.e a +2000 game. All you need is 1 win to cover 20 losses. I havent touched them recently, but put all the ones you mentioned on my watch list and hope to do some due dilligence tommorow and Friday. Will post anything I see.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    lol, i think you can get out by Friday. Mine are at .24 cents right now, lol. Expect a nice rally tomorrow.

    As for the penny stocks, i treat them like big dogs in betting, i.e a +2000 game. All you need is 1 win to cover 20 losses. I havent touched them recently, but put all the ones you mentioned on my watch list and hope to do some due dilligence tommorow and Friday. Will post anything I see.

    I don't really consider the ones I mentioned penny stocks as they are not in the "pink sheet" category and actually have options available on most of them, thus you can work with them in a variety of different ways, in any case hope you're right about the rally the close wasn't the best so may see some more immediate downside pressure tomorrow but I feel if there's much more it will be met with some end of quarter/year buying/window dressing etc.
  • pokpok1616pokpok1616 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Consider ARNA..I'd wait to pull back in the 8s, but the long term projection is huge in the obesity and diabetes market. This is a good option play as well.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    So correct if i am wrong, but we are suggesting people start with a sizable BR (eliminating a bunch of investors), stay glued to a computer screen to get the best number (sounds familiar) and quit your full time job? and i am also writing from a point of respect here, but the ins and outs you are discussing will leave 80% of us behind. i completely understand your position that the Market can be beat, but the time and money investment is far beyond my capabilities at the moment. what is the Vig on all of these trade/options?

    i work in mutual/hedge arena, but in a very specified field of that.

    hate to us FB again as my example, but when one of my large clients sold their stake they made a killing. so explain to me how to level the playing field when their cost per share on FB was 39 cents.
  • Wire2WireWire2Wire Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    RIMM...RESEARCH IN MOTION...maker of BLACKBERRY...Year Rannge HIGH $17.96 LOW $6.22
    CLOSED yesterday at $13.63
    Will report loss of 35 cents a share today according to street estimates.
    Will soon be introducing BLACKBERRY 10
    They have high hopes for this.Could be a play on earnings bounce.
    It recently has been straight up from around $9.00
    If it dips below $13.00 I am a buyer.
    w2w
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    W2W - I am very high on RIMM as well, had a few shitty years, but with the Iphone hysteria dying down think it has value. Have a few long dated calls on them at 12.5 and 15.
  • Wire2WireWire2Wire Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Last trade $13.82...plus 19 cents...w2w
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    So correct if i am wrong, but we are suggesting people start with a sizable BR (eliminating a bunch of investors), stay glued to a computer screen to get the best number (sounds familiar) and quit your full time job? and i am also writing from a point of respect here, but the ins and outs you are discussing will leave 80% of us behind. i completely understand your position that the Market can be beat, but the time and money investment is far beyond my capabilities at the moment. what is the Vig on all of these trade/options?

    i work in mutual/hedge arena, but in a very specified field of that.

    hate to us FB again as my example, but when one of my large clients sold their stake they made a killing. so explain to me how to level the playing field when their cost per share on FB was 39 cents.

    HP, I believe I can speak for Coops and the others on here that have spent years (tuition in the sense of learning scars) of learning and continued adjusting to the changing landscape of the markets. On the contrary, we wouldn't expect anybody to start with any "sizeable BR" as you put it, rather if dipping the toe just the opposite and maybe start with a small amt. that is not going to effect life in any meaningful way. This thread should be treated no differently than cappers posting plays and you can follow without throwing any money until you feel comfortable that there are +EV individuals who have done their due diligence and have a pretty good grasp of what's going on. As in betting, there are no sure things and it should be taken as such. Just as there is variance and randomness in sports the same applies to the markets, laws getting introduced out of no where that could effect an industry, competitors coming up with a new better mousetrap, etc. these are the variables that parallel things that happen in betting. What this thread should offer is the opportunity for people interested in same to have a medium to ask questions like you just have and hopefully there are enough individuals that have a fair amount of time and experience in different arenas of this to answer those questions. Your FB example for instance (and it could be argued that using one example like that is akin to the Big Kahuna situation with CLV) but with FB the level playing field IMO is after it's IPO in an uncertain market period was best to let it just do its thing until it reached a point of where it looked like it was forming a base from which if you wanted to partake, maybe nibble there (around the $20 area) then you would have been way ahead of the people that blindly chased at the open of the IPO and would now have a nice little profit. There are a lot of people in different industries on here that may be able to offer valuable opinions/insight which could help someone if they were close to "pulling a trigger" on buying or selling that could help either save them money or help them make more. Speaking of triggers, unlike sports betting starring at a screen, there are a lot more tools that can be used like setting up parameters that trigger a trade if it meets your requirements. This allows you to be doing something else while it's sitting there waiting for your criteria to be met (would be nice to have those same triggers when it comes to a line on a game meeting what you want) in any case hope this makes some sense to you going forward. This thread is here for those that choose to view, lurk, frequent, participate, etc. and those that aren't comfortable or don't want anything to do with the markets can bypass until if and when they decide otherwise. Have a great day! -R
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    I second what Reb said, lol. Hes way better with words than me.

    My background is actually all Fixed Income. Started working in '99 and been doing it since then. Friends with lots of Equity guys and have Bloomberg at my disposal so I have tons of data available to me.
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    I worked in the oil field for 20+ years, and have been buying/trading oil related stocks for 30 years. So, if anyone needs a semi-expert, I'll be happy to answers any questions.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    I only play short what ever it might be stocks, futures, currencies and once in a while I use options either to hedge or take a lotto gamble.

    It takes hard work to make money in this game, but it can be done if you dedicate yourself to it. Lots of chart reading and knowing short/Long term trends and knowing how to read Level 2 quotes is a must. Trade sectors that you've become really good at predicting movements in.

    Things you shouldn't do unless you love HIGH OCTANE RISK and being corn holed and see your account balance at 0

    DON'T BUY PENNY STOCKS
    DON'T BUY/SELL OPTIONS UNLESS YOU KNOW ALL THE INS AND OUTS
    THE MOST DANGEROUS
    DON'T PLAY NAKED SHORT OPTIONS UNLESS YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE MORE THAN WHAT YOU HAVE OR BECOME A SLAVE TO WALL ST
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    underwraps wrote: »
    I only play short what ever it might be stocks, futures, currencies and once in a while I use options either to hedge or take a lotto gamble.

    It takes hard work to make money in this game, but it can be done if you dedicate yourself to it. Lots of chart reading and knowing short/Long term trends and knowing how to read Level 2 quotes is a must. Trade sectors that you've become really good at predicting movements in.

    Things you shouldn't do unless you love HIGH OCTANE RISK and being corn holed and see your account balance at 0

    DON'T BUY PENNY STOCKS
    DON'T BUY/SELL OPTIONS UNLESS YOU KNOW ALL THE INS AND OUTS
    THE MOST DANGEROUS
    DON'T PLAY NAKED SHORT OPTIONS UNLESS YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE MORE THAN WHAT YOU HAVE OR BECOME A SLAVE TO WALL ST


    That last one goes along with the saying that the market can behave irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent, what underwraps is talking about is when you see something like a netflix, or priceline where the price just keeps going higher and higher and just when you think it has gone too far and try to pick a top to short it keeps going higher and you think well I can ride this out just a bit longer it will come down eventually, well guess what, it will but not until just after you had to cover your position, happens all the time and to those that have been at it a long long time. Good post wraps
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Wire2Wire wrote: »
    RIMM...RESEARCH IN MOTION...maker of BLACKBERRY...Year Rannge HIGH $17.96 LOW $6.22
    CLOSED yesterday at $13.63
    Will report loss of 35 cents a share today according to street estimates.
    Will soon be introducing BLACKBERRY 10
    They have high hopes for this.Could be a play on earnings bounce.
    It recently has been straight up from around $9.00
    If it dips below $13.00 I am a buyer.
    w2w

    RIM Sees 4Q Oper. Loss; 3Q Adj. Loss Better Than Est.
    By Sarah Gill

    Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- RIM sees continued pressure on oper. results; sees reporting oper. loss in 4Q.
    ● Unveiling BB10 to customers on Jan 30; BB10 timing may affect Blackberry 7 sales
    ● Will be significantly increasing marketing spending in qtr
    ● 3Q adj. loss/shr 22c, est. loss 35c (range 17c-56c loss)
    ● 3Q rev. $2.73b, est. $2.66b
    ● 3Q subscriber base ~79m users
    ● CIO Robin Bienfait to retire
    ● 3Q gross margin 30.4%, est. 28.1% (range 22%-33.1%)
    ● 3Q BlackBerry shipments 6.9m, est. 6.94m (avg. of 8 ests. compiled by Bloomberg News)
    ● 3Q tablet shipments 255k, est. 149.5k (avg. of 5 ests.)
    ● RIMM shrs halted
    ● NOTE: RIMM said with 2Q results it expects op. loss in 3Q, without giving more detail
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    All good numbers W2W, slight miss on 3Q blackberry shipments is a little worrisome, but the rest looks great. Trading .5% higher in after hours.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    And the ineptitude of our government shines bright again...

    I dont even know why I was optimistic they'd work the cliff out, they never do anything right...

    Sorry Reb, those Calls are as good as worthless.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Coops wrote: »
    And the ineptitude of our government shines bright again...

    I dont even know why I was optimistic they'd work the cliff out, they never do anything right...

    Sorry Reb, those Calls are as good as worthless.

    O Ye of little faith, thus is why I took the Dec 28 calls, they are still very live @ .45, we dropped to test the 50sma at the open, if holds well then may double up depending how we look going into the close of triple witching ;-)
  • speculatorspeculator Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    more fun to bet on sports. you know good bets from bad ones in a few hours, and being tortured for only a few hours.... but stocks, may take years......
  • Wire2WireWire2Wire Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Bought RIMM a little earlier today at $11.35.Let's see how smart I am.Will try for $13.00 by end of year...w2w
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    TheReb wrote: »
    I had mentioned OPK as a spec play as the main man inside has been buying up stock almost on a daily basis, he has a solid track record and made quite a bit on two previous companies he was involved with. They have a good deal of potential when looking at their pipeline. I spec in mainly biotech's and some financials, most are long term (not daily trades) although I will sometimes trade a certain percentage of the holdings as it meets technical targets. Will post others as they come down the road. Currently holding SNFCA, bought that in Aug. avg. 2.3 has had an unbelievable (believable if you looked at their earnings) run the past 5 mos. trading over 10+ today, have lightened position over 70% will buy on any significant dips. We discussed a little bit on ONVO another very speculative play that could have great upside.

    Bookbraker, did you pick up any of this, very nice day today...up about 20% from when Dubbs and I posted...the impressive part about today is the volume is over twice the recent daily average. See chart below:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ONVO
  • BookbrakerBookbraker Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    No reb I wish I did. I didn't have time to research it. I had out of town guests, holidays, birthdays, etc. I am self employed and contribute to an IRA. I have a very small pension coming in 25 years lol. These posted below have done well for me except alsk. I have had it for a year and it is down about 30%. It does pay a fairly nice dividend. I have a few small positions in...


    UPS

    MFA

    alsk

    SLW

    F
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Bookbraker wrote: »
    No reb I wish I did. I didn't have time to research it.

    Just an FYI, don't know how much you put into technical analysis but when a stock opens above a 50day simple moving avg. such as this did yesterday on a decent increase in volume that can translate to a breakout of a trading range. The idea behind this is that there was a pick up in demand due to some reason, doesn't always have to be the case but worth keeping an eye on. If it holds above this breakout area for a couple of days and retests the area successfully I will be adding to my core position. Again, if you get a chance to research and feel like it's worth a flyer you may want to keep tabs on this current move fwiw. GL
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Nice day for the (equity) longs in the market today, we'll see if the "fiscal cliff" euphoria holds and for how long, lot of tax loss selling at end of year last month. AAPL up almost 10% from the recent lows, keeping an eye on OPK mentioned earlier, today had a nice move higher touching the 5 handle, this one is heavily shorted and could see the pressure of a squeeze higher...remember this is the one where the main officer/holder has been insider buying on a regular basis. On another note, this is typically a time where seasonally rates have a tendency to move up in the bond market, Feb in the past has not always been a good month with heavy supply usually hitting the market. I am currently short the bond market through being long the TBT, there are other ways to position for an increase in pressure on rates (drop in bond prices). Common sense would say that with fiscal measures and tax increases and the pundits saying we should see an economic slowdown one would think rates should stay subdued, I'm in a contrary camp on this one with the mindset that if the equity market starts to pick up steam, there will be a huge asset allocation out of the fixed income market at some point. Couple that with the Fed having to change its current stand/policy if pricing pressures start to pick up again and you have the makings of higher interest rates in the pipeline so to speak IMO. GL and Happy New Year!
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Reb - What you think of Apple. Have been debating a massive position as I think it gets back to all time highs. Just cant pulll the trigger.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Coops wrote: »
    Reb - What you think of Apple. Have been debating a massive position as I think it gets back to all time highs. Just cant pulll the trigger.

    Wish you would have asked me this a couple of weeks ago, lol, seriously though looking at it in two ways. Fundamentally, the landscape is changing a bit for them competition wise and technically the so called "death cross" looked to be in place but is currently getting violently rejected. Here's what I would do if you were looking to take a decent long position. I would do a bull spread to limit loss if this is just a short covering rally, so I would most likely buy something like a July 600 call and sell a July 650 call giving up a nice 50 unit spread to take profit if you're thought of it retracing back to the highs occurs while limiting your losses if you're wrong. Hard to say without knowing your numbers/tolerance but the other thought would be to sell puts at whatever price you feel comfortable owning the stock at and keep the premium if it goes worthless (a good friend of mine just did that with the Dec puts and also the weekly Jan 4 ones where he just collected some nice premium). If you're thinking very long term you should just start accumulating on any retracement back to the 500 area. Again, fundamentally there could be some competitive things to keep an eye on that they have not faced before (Samsung is becoming a giant competitor in the hand held arena) and I liken it to when Cisco was the original router player until the others started making inroads. They never got back to their highs, just some food for thought IMO ;-)
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    TheReb wrote: »
    Nice day for the (equity) longs in the market today, we'll see if the "fiscal cliff" euphoria holds and for how long, lot of tax loss selling at end of year last month. AAPL up almost 10% from the recent lows, keeping an eye on OPK mentioned earlier, today had a nice move higher touching the 5 handle, this one is heavily shorted and could see the pressure of a squeeze higher...remember this is the one where the main officer/holder has been insider buying on a regular basis. On another note, this is typically a time where seasonally rates have a tendency to move up in the bond market, Feb in the past has not always been a good month with heavy supply usually hitting the market. I am currently short the bond market through being long the TBT, there are other ways to position for an increase in pressure on rates (drop in bond prices). Common sense would say that with fiscal measures and tax increases and the pundits saying we should see an economic slowdown one would think rates should stay subdued, I'm in a contrary camp on this one with the mindset that if the equity market starts to pick up steam, there will be a huge asset allocation out of the fixed income market at some point. Couple that with the Fed having to change its current stand/policy if pricing pressures start to pick up again and you have the makings of higher interest rates in the pipeline so to speak IMO. GL and Happy New Year!

    Reb,

    I dapple a little and have managed to do pretty good since I opened what I call a fun account at Scott in July of 2009 and have all my money out and have a nice profit just sitting there the past 6 months. In Jan of 2012 I made a decent score in the low 5 figure range and guess what got greedy and blew in all. (I've made a profit every year since I joined Scott nothing really serious but very nice.) Managed to lose $600 for the year which really pissed me off. But I stopped for the rest of the year. I believe in the May to November and November to May and the funny part is that's when I blew the profit I made it was in the month of June.
    I'm not a day Trader I don't believe in the Buy and hold (I have IRA's for that from rollover 401k plans) I look for a price that I want to make and within 30/60 days I'm out sometimes faster whenever the % hits that I want and I always use a limit stop and go from there. As you can see I'm not at all experienced I do my research but that's very limited.
    My question is In Your Opinion what would the Entry point be on OPK and the ONVO

    I love this Thread and really hope guys get involved to keep it going.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    "My question is In Your Opinion what would the Entry point be on OPK and the ONVO" -OT

    OT, first off remember these two are very speculative plays, having said that at this point in time I feel OPK is the more likely to move sooner rather than later. As far as entry on it, the move from last week's 4.65-4.70 area would be where I would look to get in on a pullback to that price range, the 4.50 area is where the 50 day/200 day moving averages are both currently at and should be a very good line of support. If it continues to creep up, the pressure on the shorts will get to a point where you could see a sharp move higher so if you're looking to make say 20-25% return then 4.75 to 5.75 wouldn't be out of the realm by any means IMO. Those are my thoughts fwiw, one other one that could make you a decent return would be MNKD, it is very similar to OPK in that Al Mann, the founder and Chairman has quite a bit of his own money behind this one and they are going through a second phase III this year on their Afrezza which the FDA originally wanted more info on. It could be revolutionary in addressing a better treatment for Diabetes at mealtimes, anywhere in the 2.15 - 2.30 area should be good entry point on MNKD, I would probably go with MNKD over ONVO between the two if I had to choose one shorter term but shorter term for me is up from 1-18mos. Currently I own all three along with AGEN, SQNM and OPTR in the biotechs as an FYI in full disclosure. In the financial area I'm long MS, TBT, & SNFCA, energy just CLNE, precious metals AUY. Most if not all are long term with subset of short term trading shares. Hope that helps -R
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    http://www.breakingviews.com/21060358.article?h=ec453407c51303c88576b84375b29bdb&s=2

    ^---that happening would make my LIFE.

    also:

    Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of
    Blackstone Advisory Partners, releases list of “Ten Surprises
    for 2013.”
    * S&P 500 drops below 1,300 (currently 1,451) with financial
    stocks reversing gains from 2012; S&P 500 earnings for 2013
    seen falling below $100, “disappointing investors”
    * Sees WTI crude falling below $70/bbl; Democrats seen
    sponsoring “vigorous” program to make U.S. independent of
    Middle East oil imports before 2020
    * Sees gold hitting $1,900/oz as central bankers continue to
    debase currencies, financial markets “prove treacherous”
    * Expects grain, livestock prices to rise “significantly” as
    climate change contributes to another year of crop failures:
    corn to $8/bu, wheat to $9, cattle to $1.50/lb
    * Europe’s mild recession that began in 2012 will continue;
    European equities will fall 10% in sympathy with U.S. market
    * Shanghai Composite “comes alive” with A shares up more
    than 20% in 2013; Nikkei will continue “strong” advance
    from Nov., trade above 12,000
    * Sees Iran announcing adequate enriched uranium to produce
    nuclear-armed missile with IAEA confirming the claim
    * Republicans will make “major effort” to become leaders in
    immigration policy
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Coops, here's what he had to say a year ago, actually not bad overall looking back:

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/04/byron-wiens-surprises-of-2012/
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