Parlays: Pros and Cons?
RightAngle
Admin
I'm going to write a short article on this subject, but wanted to get the thoughts of the board members first.
What are the pros and cons of parlays?
Edward
What are the pros and cons of parlays?
Edward
Comments
There are certain opportunities that I'll take advantage of as it pertains to moneylines and parlays.
1. I will limit this to only Baseball, and NFL Football. (moneylines)
Never NBA
2. For instance yesterday I took two teams off a loss with their ace on the mound at over -200 each..Cleveland and Oakland.
The payout was about 1.1 to 1 so The risk to me was definately worth it.
3. I will never try to strike gold with a huge parlay. This is not a good idea
4. Also, one of the most underutilized parlays is to parlay the opposite of all your plays in one day. This was if you go 0 for 3 or 0 for 6 or whatever, (and we all know these days can happen!) at least you hit the parlay to gain some of it back. I do this everyday.
I got real Lucky I think when I won a 8 Team Parlay at Bodog which paid
8, 864.00. I play one now almost everyday now for $25.00 because that is my limit. most of the time one or two teams always kill me. For instance last night I had the Cardinals game under 9.5 and it went over. I had the over on the Seattle Mariners and it went under. Baseball parlays seem to give you the best odds because of the plus money when you include dogs and Run Lines.
They are very hard to hit , but the payoff dollars look good. I always back myself up with straight bets.
Lots of fun trying to hit the big one, I get lots of good information from this site to help me in making my selections. My buddy tell me you're crazy trying to pick 8 Teams.
Ed
Example:
Take a 3 team parlay (same applies for money lines) against the spread for $100. Effectively, all you are doing is taking the initial bet, cashing it, and putting $191 on the next ticket, cashing that and playing those total proceeds on the last leg of the parlay. Parlay pays $700 ($100 wager returned) vs $696 straight as above. Basically the same, except you don't get to shop for numbers inbetween games.
If you want to play parlays, you are clearly better off playing the first leg, cashing it, and shopping for the best number on leg 2 and 3. Of course, if the games go at the same time, that rules that out.
Because of the increase in variance in parlays, they are usually not a good play, mainly because people overbet them as a percentage of bankroll, which will lead to bust more often than not.
Correlated parlays are a different story, but many books will block those plays (i.e. Heavy money line favorite in the NHL to the over, or higher still, dog+the puckline to the under). Also finding that one game you feel a huge edge in to various other games in 2 gamers lets you get more on that game.
That said, in the day (the day being more internet shops open), you could find an occasional 6.5-1 3 gamer, which gives you a big edge (drops your effective breakeven rate from 52.4% to 51.5%) or the 14/5 2 gamer. There may be a promo once in awhile in Vegas like this, but generally speaking, these opp's are gone until we return to the good old days, if we do!
players tried 8 team parlays...guess what...I never cashed one ticket
It may not be for everyone, but for $10 a day the ESPN ticker is a lot more interesting. On the $$ side, if I hit one every two or three weeks I'm ahead. Last year the "hobby" provided the starting nut for NCAA football.
1. If your local is dumb enough to let you corellate parlays(betting the total and side of the same game). Generally you will go with the dog and the under or the favorite and the over in cbb, or bet the road team and the over in baseball. SIA used to let you do this, but they will quickly cut you off if you show the ability to hit them on a consistent basis.
2. The sport where I feel I have an actual edge is college basketball. I will look for two home dogs that I feel have a great shot at winning and parlay the two dogs on the moneyline.
I really dont see many pros in betting parlays because you are getting ripped off on the odds big time. The odds of hitting a two team straight parlay is about 3:1 and the odds generally offered are 2.5:1. The odds for bigger parlays get progressively worse. I wouldnt reccommend playing a lot of longshot parlays, but I have seen a few people do really well with them. The ones that do well usually stick to the NFL and buy a couple of points on each team. The idea is that if you can pick the right side and buy a couple of points your chances of cashing a longshot go up but the price the parlay pays drops dramatically.
You see how so much has to go right just to cash one fucking bet. I would like to hear Ed's thoughts on when he sees a +ev on parlays.
Baseball season is toughest, because lines are day-by-day, although I am having modest success currently with 3 team Round Robins(1 3 teamer and 3 2-teamers). I can bet 1/4 unit, and if 3-0 roughly pays 4-1, 2-1 break-even.
Best time of year is mid-August through late April/Early May. I work on a plan where my last bet in a parlay is 3-7 days away. In football I use a lot of teasers, yet will buy points as well in parlays. I use MNF and/or European Soccer as final level(s) in the parlays. Then early in the week I will take 1/2 plays as levels 1/2 of a 4-6 team parlay. I can make $5/$10 parlays (minimal risk). Also, I don't worry about hedging until the last 2/3 levels, when I have equity in the parlay, and I can guarantee a profit.
Another thing I like about parlays, which I think was mentioned above, is that I can/do often use heavy lays (-200 up to -280). I have been known to have the final 2 of a 5/6 team parlay with say, Lyon -350 & Real Madrid/Barclona in -400 to-450 range. While those odds increase parlay payout, that also leaves me with hedge possibilities of the opposite +1, +1.5 or even +2.0 goals on the opponent, with the possibility of a middle.
I also keep my parlay plays/levels in separate time segment (no two games being played simultaniously) , thus if there is a need to hedge, I can concentrate on one game at a time.
I agree with many stating that going for 6/8/10 team parlays without a plan, throwing money away.
Regards,
As OrlandoMag noted, parlays don't change the odds. At 10/11 a 2 team parlay should pay 2.64-1, a 3 team parlay should pay 5.60-1 (that can change a bit due to rounding).
I put anything they will allow in a parlay, and rarely have only 10/11 plays in a parlay. I presume the true vig to be @9%.
Regards,
Gambling For a Living "Sklansky and Malmuth". 1997
The Odds "Chad Milman" 2001
Sharp Sports Betting "Stanford Wong" 2001 who has 15 pages on this subject.
The details of these three books mostly leave me to think that straight bets are superior. However, the Stanford Wong (15 pages) covers parlays in such a way that I know I have no idea.
Therefore, I will continue to do a 4 or 5 games parlay when at a particular book I am down to "my last yacht" and am hoping for a miracle.
Perhaps the next stimulation could be "round robbins".
Cons: difficult to win, but sometimes they hit
Jun 22 9:01pm 4 Team Parlay - Winner 100.00 to win 580.49
1. Baseball - Boston Red Sox - moneyline (-135)
for the entire game held on Jun 22 at 9:05pm [winner]
D Matsuzak -R must start and G Maddux -R must start for action
2. Baseball - Cincinnati Reds - runline +1½ (-210)
for the entire game held on Jun 22 at 9:05pm [winner]
A Harang -R must start and R Feierabend -L must start for action
3. Baseball - Los Angeles Angels - moneyline (-225)
for the entire game held on Jun 22 at 9:05pm [winner]
Z Duke -L must start and J Saunders - L must start for action
4. Baseball - New York Yankees - moneyline (-120)
for the entire game held on Jun 22 at 9:15pm [winner]
K Igawa -L must start and M Cain -R must start for action