I don't need credibility. The fact that my arguments have no credibility is what gives them value. Watch the results. They are all that matter.
Whereas my position is that "DEMS to win at -110" contains value,
You have not stated a concise position. Your opinion has been all over the place. From Dems winning to Trump not losing a single vote to yada yada yada....
Kind of easy to claim the winner afterwards.
PS. to other forum members.
Dems to Win -110 still looks like value to me. Wisconsin voting results strenghten that case. (Trump backed Justice Dan Kelly lost, with major voter supression efforts by GOP). Yesterday's Gallup Poll also shows Trump favorability numbers worsening.
Whereas my position is that "DEMS to win at -110" contains value,
You have not stated a concise position. Your opinion has been all over the place. From Dems winning to Trump not losing a single vote to yada yada yada....
Kind of easy to claim the winner afterwards.
PS. to other forum members.
Dems to Win -110 still looks like value to me. Wisconsin voting results strenghten that case. (Trump backed Justice Dan Kelly lost, with major voter supression efforts by GOP). Yesterday's Gallup Poll also shows Trump favorability numbers worsening.
No, my opinion has been consistent. There is no value and if there is value it is most likely slightly with Trump. The idea that you need an opinion here is why your bet stinks. You either have value or you don't.
My statements have been very concise and highly accurate thus far. You simply have not understood them due to the fact that they differ with yours and the confusion that creates by your failing to be able to read them accurately. I have a lot of reasons for believing what I believe, not all of which I have bothered to list. You have basically none except that Biden is going to win in a landslide because coronavirus yada yada yada. The more I elucidate my opinion, the more you will become confused.
No, my opinion has been consistent. There is no value and if there is value it is most likely slightly with Trump. The idea that you need an opinion here is why your bet stinks. You either have value or you don't.
My statements have been very concise and highly accurate thus far. You simply have not understood them due to the fact that they differ with yours and the confusion that creates by your failing to be able to read them accurately. I have a lot of reasons for believing what I believe, not all of which I have bothered to list. You have basically none except that Biden is going to win in a landslide because coronavirus yada yada yada. The more I elucidate my opinion, the more you will become confused.
In any case, I just gave the counterargument.
I started off this thread with about 10 arguments in post #1.
Kind of strange to hear that I "have basically none except CoronaVirus".
I started off this thread with about 10 arguments in post #1.
Kind of strange to hear that I "have basically none except CoronaVirus".
You had 10 arguments that were basically one argument and that was Biden was going to win more votes because coronavirus. I quite effectively countered this argument by saying Trump was losing ZERO votes, all of his voters were going to show up for the polls and he has 266 electoral votes in the bag. That was extremely concise.
OK, just as a recap, 20 units were bet to win around 22 units that Trump would not be re-elected, at +109. Today odds for Trump being re-elected are at +121, providing an opportunity to bet ~19 units that Trump gets re-elected to win 23 units and guarantee about 3 units profit regardless of outcome.
In 2016, a week before the election, Trump was around +260 to win. I’m wondering if Trump might be at similar odds in the last week of this election, allowing me to bet something like 12 units to win 31 units, guaranteeing 10 or 11 units profit.
I’m pretty sure I don’t want to buy out now for the 3 units, but maybe if Trump goes +260 again then a bird in the hand might be better than 2 in the bush, especially with how crazy things get involving that guy... or should I man up and ride the bet all the way through?
Wow. That's a big move. Trump is in full meltdown. This pandemic is completely unpredictable. You expect that Trump's chances would be getting better under the circumstances but he is blowing it. His plan for killing off old people is not working out real well either.
With that said, he is doing well in Wisconsin last I saw but looking surprisingly weak in Arizona, NC and Florida where his death strategy is especially not being appreciated.
The polls are going to narrow down the stretch big time. All I can tell you is I had Clinton at plus odds with -220 down the stretch and lost. Trump's chances are probably better now than then.
Comments
True that.
Whereas my position is that "DEMS to win at -110" contains value,
You have not stated a concise position. Your opinion has been all over the place. From Dems winning to Trump not losing a single vote to yada yada yada....
Kind of easy to claim the winner afterwards.
PS. to other forum members.
Dems to Win -110 still looks like value to me. Wisconsin voting results strenghten that case. (Trump backed Justice Dan Kelly lost, with major voter supression efforts by GOP). Yesterday's Gallup Poll also shows Trump favorability numbers worsening.
No, my opinion has been consistent. There is no value and if there is value it is most likely slightly with Trump. The idea that you need an opinion here is why your bet stinks. You either have value or you don't.
My statements have been very concise and highly accurate thus far. You simply have not understood them due to the fact that they differ with yours and the confusion that creates by your failing to be able to read them accurately. I have a lot of reasons for believing what I believe, not all of which I have bothered to list. You have basically none except that Biden is going to win in a landslide because coronavirus yada yada yada. The more I elucidate my opinion, the more you will become confused.
In any case, I just gave the counterargument.
I started off this thread with about 10 arguments in post #1.
Kind of strange to hear that I "have basically none except CoronaVirus".
You had 10 arguments that were basically one argument and that was Biden was going to win more votes because coronavirus. I quite effectively countered this argument by saying Trump was losing ZERO votes, all of his voters were going to show up for the polls and he has 266 electoral votes in the bag. That was extremely concise.
You saying something and it being true are completely different things.
GTFOH!
Everything you said was known when Trump was -160. You thought corona was the difference.
OK, I will leave you to it. I think the counterargument has held up quite well.
It's the eight argument I wrote down. Never did I say that it was the difference.
OK, I did not bother to go into the weaknesses of those arguments because I have kept this with the basic counterargument which is enough.
OK, just as a recap, 20 units were bet to win around 22 units that Trump would not be re-elected, at +109. Today odds for Trump being re-elected are at +121, providing an opportunity to bet ~19 units that Trump gets re-elected to win 23 units and guarantee about 3 units profit regardless of outcome.
In 2016, a week before the election, Trump was around +260 to win. I’m wondering if Trump might be at similar odds in the last week of this election, allowing me to bet something like 12 units to win 31 units, guaranteeing 10 or 11 units profit.
I’m pretty sure I don’t want to buy out now for the 3 units, but maybe if Trump goes +260 again then a bird in the hand might be better than 2 in the bush, especially with how crazy things get involving that guy... or should I man up and ride the bet all the way through?
Wow. That's a big move. Trump is in full meltdown. This pandemic is completely unpredictable. You expect that Trump's chances would be getting better under the circumstances but he is blowing it. His plan for killing off old people is not working out real well either.
With that said, he is doing well in Wisconsin last I saw but looking surprisingly weak in Arizona, NC and Florida where his death strategy is especially not being appreciated.
The polls are going to narrow down the stretch big time. All I can tell you is I had Clinton at plus odds with -220 down the stretch and lost. Trump's chances are probably better now than then.