Betting Talk

Presidential Election Betting

2

Comments

  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    That is pretty easy. Dems don't vote and they especially don't vote in primaries. Rs always vote. That is their advantage.

    Dems have big problems in 2020 but watch out in 2024. It will be the end of the Republican party as you know it.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Or force the D’s to stop their selfish shit and go back to be the working persons party! Pork BS, Pelosi’s friends at the Kennedy Center (& the airlines) waiting til they get a check, then laying ppl off.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Lancer wrote: »
    Or force the D’s to stop their selfish shit and go back to be the working persons party! Pork BS, Pelosi’s friends at the Kennedy Center (& the airlines) waiting til they get a check, then laying ppl off.

    No politics in this thread Lancer.

    In other news, Boris Johnson at 72% approval despite deciding to infect the entire country and getting corona himself. No, I don't think this is going to hurt Trump much.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Sorry, I realized after I hit ‘send’
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Obi One wrote: »
    more of the same, Biden is toast, this was today.
    Most books have taken the 'politics' section down.

    https://twitter.com/GeoffMiami/status/1243704660294328325

    Markets back up

    Biden NOT to be the Democratic nominee now down to +395 (from +700 earlier this week)
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Trump now wisely upping the projected death rate to 100,000 and adjusting that to a job well done versus the 2.2M that could have died. He's the master of manipulation.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Trump now wisely upping the projected death rate to 100,000 and adjusting that to a job well done versus the 2.2M that could have died. He's the master of manipulation.

    I alway cringe when I read something to the effect that Trump is a racist or homophobe or devious con man, or, as in this post, some kind of master of something. Trump’s level of cognitive awareness tells him when he needs to eat, when he needs to excrete, and when he needs his ass to be kissed. That’s it. He’s literally too stupid to be an “ist” or a “phobe” or a master of anything. Anything beyond the 3 basic functions I outlined, and he just starts saying random shit to pas the time until he can do one of the 3 things he cares about.

    I’m thinking about going for the “Trump won’t be president” bet (-104 at BM right now) because I’m thinking the price for that is going to get a lot higher if/when this virus starts hitting his voter base hard...
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Biden has taken a ton of $$ recently that he will be nominee. This pandemic has hidden him well.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    rook wrote: »
    I alway cringe when I read something to the effect that Trump is a racist or homophobe or devious con man, or, as in this post, some kind of master of something. Trump’s level of cognitive awareness tells him when he needs to eat, when he needs to excrete, and when he needs his ass to be kissed. That’s it. He’s literally too stupid to be an “ist” or a “phobe” or a master of anything. Anything beyond the 3 basic functions I outlined, and he just starts saying random shit to pas the time until he can do one of the 3 things he cares about.

    I’m thinking about going for the “Trump won’t be president” bet (-104 at BM right now) because I’m thinking the price for that is going to get a lot higher if/when this virus starts hitting his voter base hard...

    For a person with a lack of cognition, he has a knack of outsmarting the political establishment so I have to assume they are either less cognitive or more crazy. He knows how to manage his voters and that is what he is doing. He is adjusting the bar and they are adjusting it with him.

    He is a liar. He is a cheater. But most of all, he is a con man.
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Trump has 266 electoral votes all but locked up. Biden has to win Michigan AND Wisconsin AND Colorado AND Nevada.

    Biden has no idea what even to say right now. He's the fallback. If Trump turns bad, they will turn to him. The policies are basically the same and nobody cares anymore.

    They also own the voting machines and they know how to use them. They've been winning in Latin America for years.

    This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. Trump has no where near 266 locked up.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Kashmir wrote: »
    This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. Trump has no where near 266 locked up.

    We'll see. What is Biden now +140? This is not going the right way.

    The problem everyone has is they assume people think like they do. Just like a gambler, you underestimate the stupidity of the American public at your peril. You also give way too much credit to what the American public values. They do not value what you think they do. They don't give a damn how many people die in this. They know there is no difference between what Trump would have done and what Obama would have done. Nobody was going to take down the stock market until it started cracking.

    All any American cares about is what they have in their pocket and who is going to give them more of it. So no matter how this goes, Trump still have the advantage of being the person they think will get them a job first. That is all they are going to care about. Trump is also running ahead of Biden on who is the best to manage the pandemic.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    I also have not mentioned the most important part which is being a "War Time" president. Americans eat that up. You say "War Time" and you are automatically re-elected. Yeah, Trump has hit that one too.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    I also have not mentioned the most important part which is being a "War Time" president. Americans eat that up. You say "War Time" and you are automatically re-elected. Yeah, Trump has hit that one too.

    You talk in absolutes,
    most of us here talk in probabilities.
    And no, War-Time Bush Sr, was not reelected.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Obi One wrote: »
    You talk in absolutes,
    most of us here talk in probabilities.
    And no, War-Time Bush Sr, was not reelected.

    I talk in probabilities. I am accentuating the most likely scenario. Check Bush Jr. Bush Sr. did not fight a war.

    Go to 270 to win and see how the hell Biden is going to win. Ain't nobody coming out to vote for Joe Biden.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    For a person with a lack of cognition, he has a knack of outsmarting the political establishment so I have to assume they are either less cognitive or more crazy. He knows how to manage his voters and that is what he is doing. He is adjusting the bar and they are adjusting it with him.

    He is a liar. He is a cheater. But most of all, he is a con man.

    Yes he is a liar by normal standards. But from his point of view, he is not lying. He says some random shit. What registers on him afterwards is how much was his ass was kissed after he said that random shit. If his ass wan’t kissed enough, he changes the random shit to something different. Rinse and repeat until his ass is kissed to his satisfaction. Now, the final thing he said may directly contradict the 1st thing he said. Or all the things he said from first to last might have been lies. That’s beyond his comprehension — he doesn’t know the difference between a lie and the truth. All he knows is to keep saying random shit until his ass gets adequately kissed.

    Cheating and conning follow the same process, but instead of saying random shirt he is doing random shit. He does random shit over and over again, adjusting until he reaches the desired ass-kissing point. Did he cheat somebody or con somebody? By our our standards, of course yes, he did. But again he has no comprehension of cheating or conning. He’s just doing random shit over and over again until he gets his ass kissed satisfactorily.

    It’s incredibly simple, just like an amoeba swimming away from an unpleasant part of the water droplet he resides in, toward some place that is more pleasant because of warmth or nutrients. That simplicity is exactly what makes 40 percent of the country love him. It gives him a Terminator-like relentlessness that his base adores. And to maintain that adoration, all he has to do is be his natural self.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Bush Sr. did not fight a war.

    You must have forgotten about
    The Gulf War,
    Operation Desert Shield,
    The largest military alliance since World War II,
    Saddam Hoessein,
    SCUD Missiles,
    Patriot Rockets,
    Generals Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf,
    CNN Live Broadcasts,
    Wolf Blitzer,
    Christiane Amanpour

    And again, No, Bush Sr was not re-elected.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    Obi One wrote: »
    You must have forgotten about
    The Gulf War,
    Operation Desert Shield,
    The largest military alliance since World War II,
    Saddam Hoessein,
    SCUD Missiles,
    Patriot Rockets,
    Generals Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf,
    CNN Live Broadcasts,
    Wolf Blitzer,
    Christiane Amanpour

    And again, No, Bush Sr was not re-elected.

    No, that was a military operation. They cut it short. Bush Jr. decided to go all the way.

    - - - Updated - - -
    rook wrote: »
    Yes he is a liar by normal standards. But from his point of view, he is not lying. He says some random shit. What registers on him afterwards is how much was his ass was kissed after he said that random shit. If his ass wan’t kissed enough, he changes the random shit to something different. Rinse and repeat until his ass is kissed to his satisfaction. Now, the final thing he said may directly contradict the 1st thing he said. Or all the things he said from first to last might have been lies. That’s beyond his comprehension — he doesn’t know the difference between a lie and the truth. All he knows is to keep saying random shit until his ass gets adequately kissed.

    Cheating and conning follow the same process, but instead of saying random shirt he is doing random shit. He does random shit over and over again, adjusting until he reaches the desired ass-kissing point. Did he cheat somebody or con somebody? By our our standards, of course yes, he did. But again he has no comprehension of cheating or conning. He’s just doing random shit over and over again until he gets his ass kissed satisfactorily.

    It’s incredibly simple, just like an amoeba swimming away from an unpleasant part of the water droplet he resides in, toward some place that is more pleasant because of warmth or nutrients. That simplicity is exactly what makes 40 percent of the country love him. It gives him a Terminator-like relentlessness that his base adores. And to maintain that adoration, all he has to do is be his natural self.

    He knows he is lying. You cannot lie that much and not know it. He uses the Goebbels philosophy of lying. He is putting on a show. Americans love the show. He puts on a good show and he wants credit for it like any entertainer does.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    If you don't like Trump, you actually should be rooting for him. Because he is not a Republican. He is a Dem. He is to the left of Biden. He just gives stuff to the Rs that he does not care about. He will do stuff that Biden will never do and is likely to do so if he gets re-elected because he has a legacy to build and he's in a tough spot.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    If you don't like Trump, you actually should be rooting for him. Because he is not a Republican. He is a Dem. He is to the left of Biden. He just gives stuff to the Rs that he does not care about. He will do stuff that Biden will never do and is likely to do so if he gets re-elected because he has a legacy to build and he's in a tough spot.

    It’s true. It really is just a matter of where he can get his validation from. If he was able to say random shit and get enough ass-kissing in response from CNN, he would move himself into an ass-kissing feedback loop with them instead of Fox. Then, in no time at all he would be left of Bernie Sanders. Like I said, even the concept/term ’Republican” or “Democrat“ is beyond his capacity to comprehend.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    rook wrote: »
    It’s true. It really is just a matter of where he can get his validation from. If he was able to say random shit and get enough ass-kissing in response from CNN, he would move himself into an ass-kissing feedback loop with them instead of Fox. Then, in no time at all he would be left of Bernie Sanders. Like I said, even the concept/term ’Republican” or “Democrat“ is beyond his capacity to comprehend.

    He is already to the left of Bernie. His economic philosophy is radically left wing. Even Bernie rejects it. The Rs hate it. There is nothing they can do about it.

    Obama wanted a big infrastructure plan. The Rs rejected it. Trump is going to get it. That is something Dems would never do under Biden.

    He supports Medicare For All. He supports putting limits on Rx prices. He does not care at all about the debt. He had to be told none of that would work running as an R, so he just said: "OK, I didn't mean any of that." He is going to send out as many checks as it takes and as much as it takes and there is not anytning the Rs will be able to do about it.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    He is already to the left of Bernie. His economic philosophy is radically left wing. Even Bernie rejects it. The Rs hate it. There is nothing they can do about it.

    Obama wanted a big infrastructure plan. The Rs rejected it. Trump is going to get it. That is something Dems would never do under Biden.

    He supports Medicare For All. He supports putting limits on Rx prices. He does not care at all about the debt. He had to be told none of that would work running as an R, so he just said: "OK, I didn't mean any of that." He is going to send out as many checks as it takes and as much as it takes and there is not anytning the Rs will be able to do about it.

    So, how to win money from all this?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    rook wrote: »
    So, how to win money from all this?

    Wiat for the stock market to crash and then jump in at the bottom.

    Or build a good model and bet sports.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Wiat for the stock market to crash and then jump in at the bottom.

    Or build a good model and bet sports.

    Well smart as you are, and all the political knowledge you clearly have, and you don’t see a good bet at this point, means that maybe I should just back away from betting on Trump-not-president...
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    rook wrote: »
    Well smart as you are, and all the political knowledge you clearly have, and you don’t see a good bet at this point, means that maybe I should just back away from betting on Trump-not-president...

    Yes, I have said it is basically a toss up. Forced bets are for losers. Trump with the clear edge right now. If the Fed can't keep the pumps on the stock market going 24-7, it could go either way.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited April 2020
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    kcburgh wrote: »

    She's in the news. People are firing at any long shot. He needs to win Michigan and she is the gov there as a Dem which is pretty impressive. Rs not real strong in Michigna from what I have read. You are also looking at this from the wrong point of view. All the things that make you not like her, makes her a better candidate.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    She's in the news. People are firing at any long shot. He needs to win Michigan and she is the gov there as a Dem which is pretty impressive. Rs not real strong in Michigna from what I have read. You are also looking at this from the wrong point of view. All the things that make you not like her, makes her a better candidate.

    Interesting points..I also feel like field is in play as well. I know he said he would chose a women but a lot has changed since then(plus with the hatred against Trump not like it matters if he goes back on his word)...
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    kcburgh wrote: »
    Interesting points..I also feel like field is in play as well. I know he said he would chose a women but a lot has changed since then(plus with the hatred against Trump not like it matters if he goes back on his word)...

    He's definitely picking a woman which is a bad idea. But that is pretty much all the Dems have is bad ideas at this point which is why they are trotting out Biden and hoping Obama gets him there. Dems are the womens party and Rs are the old white guys party.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    He's definitely picking a woman which is a bad idea. But that is pretty much all the Dems have is bad ideas at this point which is why they are trotting out Biden and hoping Obama gets him there. Dems are the womens party and Rs are the old white guys party.

    As with many of your arguments:
    You're contradicting yourself. I noted it earlier in this thread, and it's very obvious in the post above. Hope you understand why I say this.

    Clear and consistent arguments would lend your voice more credibility.

    __________________

    As per your statement that "Dems are the womens party", I saw an article recently which showed that if you only counted the female votes in the 2016 General Election, the GOP would have netted about 10 states and 88 electoral votes. Your statement is correct.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited April 2020
    Obi One wrote: »
    As with many of your arguments:
    You're contradicting yourself. I noted it earlier in this thread, and it's very obvious in the post above. Hope you understand why I say this.

    Clear and consistent arguments would lend your voice more credibility.

    __________________

    As per your statement that "Dems are the womens party", I saw an article recently which showed that if you only counted the female votes in the 2016 General Election, the GOP would have netted about 10 states and 88 electoral votes. Your statement is correct.

    I don't need credibility. The fact that my arguments have no credibility is what gives them value. Watch the results. They are all that matter.
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