This will be the first of regular daily fantasy sports (DFS) articles from our resident fantasy expert, Colin Drew (a.k.a. “drewby” on the forum). Drew works in sales operations but found FanDuel last fall and turned a couple hundred dollars into a few thousand, and since then it’s sort of taken off for him. He helped the forum members construct a few winning PGA lineups this summer, and he also specializes in NFL and NHL. While Drew still labels himself a “small stakes grinder,” it’s probably safe to say he’s in the top 10 percent of this burgeoning industry. We’re excited to have him on board, and he’s excited to share what he’s learned so far as he feels there’s a natural fit between sports betting and DFS.
Note: Drew will be approaching the first couple weeks as if everyone is a complete newbie, walking through lineup construction basics for both tournaments and cash games. If you’re far beyond beginner status, just be patient. And, feel free to discuss some of what you’ve learned on the forum. In this post, he’ll take a look at basic strategy for constructing a lineup for a very large-field GPP (guaranteed prize pool), for instance the $27 entry, million-dollar payout tournament this weekend at DraftKings. (If you want to give it a shot, make sure to take advantage of the best bonus available in the industry at BiggerBonus.)
UPSIDE
Tournament strategy is all about upside. You need to have monster days from everyone on your roster to take home a big prize pool. On Fanduel, you’re looking for three fantasy points for each $1,000 spent, while on DraftKings it’s more like four points most weeks, or five for huge GPPs like this week’s Millionaire Maker.
If you’re paying $10,000 for someone like Andrew Luck, you better be expecting 30+ points. Otherwise, the rest of your roster will need to make it up. This makes boom-or-bust players great options. Guys like Vincent Jackson or Cam Newton—who go from five to 25 points and then back to five again—can be great GPP plays.
STACKING
Stacking (pairing your QB with a WR or TE) can be a highly optimal GPP strategy. This is now a fairly common GPP practice simply because the points are so highly correlated. Every point the WR or TE scores is also points for the QB. So, if you hit on your QB, the chances go up that you hit on your WR or TE as well.
Let’s say you have Andy Dalton as your QB and have the option to use one of similarly priced WRs A.J. Green or Dez Bryant. You project each for 20-point days. If Dalton flops, you’ll lose no matter what. But if Dalton hits, it’s likely because he’s throwing a bomb or two to Green. Basically, the chances of hitting on both Dalton and Green are higher than the chances of hitting on both Dalton and Bryant.
Conversely, it’s typically unwise to use a QB and RB from the same team, as it limits your upside unless the RB just catches a ton of passes. If the Lions are on the 5-yard line, the chances are slim that both Matt Stafford and Joique Bell will be involved in the touchdown. Any Stafford TD likely takes one away from Bell, and vice versa. And, remember, you need essentially all of your players to pop in a GPP to take home the big prize. Don’t get too drawn into a high-powered offense by using both their QB and RB options.
PLAYING CONTRARIAN
GPPs are all about separating yourself from the competition. Every week, there will be players who jump out as obvious plays based on the matchups and will therefore be heavily owned. In a 50/50 contest, it is often unwise to fade these players because you’ll be playing serious catchup if they do go off, with only a minimal return.
In a GPP, going against the grain—and hitting—can produce massive dividends. If you hit value on a 50 percent-owned player, you’ll still have to do some serious differentiation with the rest of your lineup. But if you strike big with a stack that is only 10-percent owned, you’ll need to do a lot less.
There are different ways of going contrarian on a given week. A couple quick examples are pairing a lesser-known QB with his stud WR, or pairing a top-tier QB with either his No. 2 wideout or his pass-catching RB.
DEFENSES
Defenses (and kickers, for the sites that have them) are where luck probably plays the biggest role. I won’t touch on this too much, but you should target defenses that force a lot of turnovers and/or have explosive special teams players. Touchdowns are gold when it comes to D/STs, making a defense like the Bills (with explosive return man C.J. Spiller) attractive in a GPP.
A very sneaky stack is to grab the Buffalo or Seattle defense and then also snag Spiller or Percy Harvin as you RB or WR, doubling those D/ST points for one of your skill position guys if they take it to the house.
MULTI-ENTRY
You’re playing in massive GPPs looking for a big payday, and no matter how well you have a read on the NFL there are many different ways to skin a cat. Putting multiple entries into a tournament increases the likelihood of a payday by increasing your exposure. There are ways to hedge (target both QBs in a game with a high over/under), overlap lineups, or go completely different. I’m a big fan of multi-entry as it allows you to build several lineups you think can hit, versus the patience required to profit from a single entry (hitting just twice in 17 NFL weeks could be +EV).
In the end, tournaments are about reaching for as much upside as you can, keeping in mind that there’s zero difference between finishing just out of the money or in dead last. Being close doesn’t count. All that matters is that, when you win, you score high enough to take home a big prize.