DFS Strategy: Deciphering public opinion and using it to your advantage in GPPs

Daily fantasy sports is all about value—just like sports betting, stock trading or any other “market.” Projecting ownership of players is an important factor in both cash game strategy and tournament strategy, as we’ve covered previously.

The traditional thinking goes like this: If you’re in a large-field 50/50, there’s no need to risk fading what you project to be a highly owned player; if you’re in a huge GPP, successfully fading that player can separate you from the pack. So, it’s important to apply a bit of psychology and try to project ownership. (Note: If you’re on FanDuel, you can simply sign up for any Thursday contest to get a gauge of player ownership. But this article was written prior to Thursday’s Jets-Patriots game, so feel free to hold me accountable below.)

Sometimes the obvious plays, the “Joe Public” plays, are enough to win cash games, but rarely does a team full of chalk take home a large-field GPP. That doesn’t mean you should automatically fade popular players in big tournaments, but you can’t roster a full contingent of them.

Before going any further, I should probably admit I was an accounting major in undergrad and am data driven in my professional life, so take my “psychoanalysis” with that in mind. But I believe “Joe Public” in DFS watches the NFL on Sunday and plays in a season-long league or two. He listens to the talking heads on ESPN, so teams that lose big one Sunday are then among the worst teams in NFL history the following week. He also loves players hyped frequently in the media, especially quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. It doesn’t really matter how expensive they are; Joe Public will get them into his lineups no matter the sacrifice elsewhere. Conversely, he won’t consider rostering lesser-known players, no matter the price.

This week, I’m going to touch on each game and try to tap into the casual player’s mindset on which players they’ll target.

BENGALS AT COLTS

This one is a no-brainer. Public love will be on Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton after their monster Thursday night performance in Week 6, combined with the Bengals defense getting lit up for the second straight week. With a 3-point spread and 50 total, the public will love the Colts. The Bengals? Not so much. Who knows, maybe it’s because they’re from Ohio or Andy Dalton has red hair, but you’re going to see the Colts much more heavily owned despite the close projections.

VIKINGS AT BILLS

Two teams with poor offenses thus far, so the public likely fades this game entirely. They might grab trendy names like Sammy Watkins, C.J. Spiller or Cordarrelle Patterson, but they probably won’t recognize the Bills defense as a sneaky play and are turned off by Fred Jackson. (Even though the “old” and “low upside” Buffalo RB is the most likely of anyone to pop for two TDs.

DOLPHINS AT BEARS

Chicago just throttled Atlanta, so the 3-point spread is screaming at Joe Public to take the Bears, and I have to imagine the casual DFS player will avoid Miami’s skill position players in favor of Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The Dolphins’ guys aren’t as sexy, but they could have similar value to the more heavily owned Chicago weapons, particularly someone like Lamar Miller with full ownership of the Miami backfield.

GIANTS AT COWBOYS

I’m not sure what the popular plays will be in this one except to say they will for sure include DeMarco Murray. Tons of folks got burned by the G-Men last weekend, so they’ll be hesitant to go back for more punishment from guys like Eli Manning and Andre Williams. Rueben Randle could be popular with the injury to Victor Cruz; I don’t hate him, though I’m more turned on by his red-zone targets. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant have been productive but not exceptional, and I could see them popping off one of these weeks.

FALCONS AT RAVENS

Atlanta was a debacle last weekend, disappointing many owners in a favorable situation, while Baltimore tore the roof off with five first-half TDs from Joe Flacco. Julio Jones is a big enough name that his ownership won’t fall too far, but a lot more people will be gravitating towards Flacco and Steve Smith or Torrey Smith, instead of the equally talented Falcons. Baltimore is favored by nearly a touchdown, which means Matt Ryan should be behind and throwing at an average passing defense if the o-line can keep him protected.

TITANS AT REDSKINS

Outside of DeSean Jackson, these are two offenses filled with sub-par players the past couple weeks, so I think most owners will avoid this game. However, with below-average defenses and total of 46, there are certainly touchdowns to go around, meaning there could be some low-owned value. I would avoid the Tennessee rushing attack, but I think Jake Locker/Kendall Wright/Justin Hunter and Kirk Cousins/Pierre Garcon/Alfred Morris will be low-owned guys who can produce.

PANTHERS AT PACKERS

Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson—and, to a lesser extent, Randall Cobb—will always get a look from the casual gamer. I can’t imagine Carolina getting much love, and most season-long players are turned off by Eddie Lacy at this point. It’s hard to recommend any Panthers with much confidence, but Jonathan Stewart is a very under-the-radar player with a plus matchup. He could easily give you five points, but if he strikes for double digits, not many competitors will be on him. (The real question is whether or not “Running Cam Newton” is back.)

49ERS AT BRONCOS