The inaugural College Football Playoff is still two weeks away, but excitement continues to build as we all wait for the two semifinal games to arrive: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State in the Rose Bowl.
For bettors, that excitement is less about the controversial selection announcement delivered on Dec. 7—“controversial” meaning “rigged,” if you’re a fan of Baylor or TCU—and more about the spreads on the games scheduled for New Year’s Day.
As we knew within 10 minutes of those pairings being announced, both games opened with lines of more than a touchdown. While not necessarily surprising, seeing Alabama and Oregon favored by 9.5 and 8.5 points, respectively, marked the official start of bowl season for degenerate and sharp bettors alike.
Happy Holidays, indeed.
Nearly every sports book—whether Vegas-based or offshore—has since settled in at Alabama -9.5 and Oregon -9*, including William Hill U.S., one of Nevada’s most conspicuous sports betting outlets. The U.S. arm of William Hill Online currently operates approximately 100 betting locations across the state and also serves as the risk manager for the State of Delaware’s sports lottery. The company’s handle on the College Football Playoff semifinal games is nothing to write home about yet, but that’s due to timing, not a lack of interest.
“When the game’s three weeks away, the betting’s pretty slow,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill U.S.’s director of trading. “Some professionals [have] played the games or maybe some people who won’t be back in town [before Jan. 1] played the games. Other than that, most people have not gotten involved with those games yet.”
That’s to be expected, Bogdanovich noted. With a slew of other bowl games to choose from before the end of the year—not to mention the NBA, NHL and NCAA basketball regular-season cards—bettors will generally avoid tying their money up in games a couple weeks away. There’s no doubt that action on the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will come rolling in, but the majority of it won’t be until a day or two before the New Year.
It’s also likely that the current lines won’t hold steady.
“I think both numbers are inflated,” Bogdanovich said. “Alabama’s and Oregon’s defenses are suspect. I see Ohio State and Florida State getting their share of scoring.
“We’re talking about Ohio State and Florida State being underdogs, and you never see them in the underdog role. I guarantee you the public will bet both of those ’dogs on the moneyline. You’re getting a quality team with a nice ‘plus’ price.”
That “nice plus price” is creeping close to 3-to-1 at some shops. A moneyline that high next to the name “Buckeyes” or “Seminoles” will probably be too tempting for those fan bases—and the public—to pass up. Take it from the guy who manages William Hill U.S.’s sports risk: If you’re looking to get a good price on Ohio State or Florida State, you’ll want to fire on those games earlier than most, before the numbers drop.
Bogdanovich also gave Betting Talk his projected lines for each of the four potential national championship matchups. (Or, at least, his early thoughts about the numbers he’d hang right now.)
No. 1 Alabama (-2) vs. No. 2 Oregon
Bogdanovich: “I’m thinking ’Bama small—2 or 2.5.”
No. 1 Alabama (-4) vs. No. 3 Florida State
Bogdanovich: “I couldn’t make Alabama any more than 4 or 4.5. Some people might have it higher, but I think that’s crazy.”
No. 2 Oregon (-3) vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Bogdanovich: “Oregon low, because it’d be an Ohio State team that destroyed Wisconsin and then would have beaten the so-called No. 1 in Alabama. Oregon by 3 or 3.5.”
No. 3 Florida State (pk) vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Bogdanovich: “That would be a good, dead pick-em game.”
Yes, they’re speculative lines. And yes, a lot can and will happen between now and then. But barring suspensions, injuries or a major blowout in either semifinal, these lines probably reflect how Bogdanovich, his team and other bookmakers will stake their positions on the championship game.
The lesson for now? There’s value on the underdogs.
At least in the eyes of one bookmaker.
* * *
*Editor’s note: This post was written before the injury news about Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, which has since moved the line at some books.