Still worth betting on Kentucky to go 40-0?

John Calipari’s undefeated Kentucky Wildcats currently sit at No. 1 in the voting polls, they’re steamrolling through the SEC and dominating everyone’s power rankings, and at 22-0 they’re only 18 wins shy—nine regular season, three SEC Tournament, and six NCAA tournament—of joining the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers (32-0) in college hoops immortality with a perfect 40-0 record.

More than halfway there.

So, what were the odds of them running the table at the beginning of the season, what are they now, and is there possibly any value on either side of the “Will Kentucky finish the season undefeated” prop bet?

Back in November, William Hill U.S. was one of the Las Vegas sports books to offer the prop, including SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament play, booking 39 bets on ‘Yes’ at a whopping 50-to-1 odds. As of this week, the odds had shortened considerably.

“We’ve had that prop up for a long time, and it’s been a two-way price the entire time,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill U.S. “It’s just been getting bet ‘Yes’ and ‘Yes’ and ‘Yes,’ so we’ll see how low it gets.”

The prop currently sits at ‘Yes’ (+370), ‘No’ (-450). Action hasn’t necessarily dried up on this bet, but it’s much more balanced today than it was earlier in the season.

“I think [the price] is right where it needs to be,” Bogdanovich said. “The sharps aren’t busting down the door to get to either side, so it must be a pretty good number.

“That’s the one thing about putting up a number in Las Vegas. There are so many good professional bettors that if you hang a bad [number], they’ll correct you pretty soon.”

So is there any value left in betting Kentucky to go undefeated at +370? Or is it worth it to lay -450 in the hopes that they lose a game between now and April 6?

There aren’t many regular-season games remaining that pose a threat, mainly because the SEC features Kentucky at No. 1 in KenPom.com’s power ratings and then no other team inside the Top 25.

Here’s a look at the projected spreads and odds of winning for Kentucky’s nine remaining regular-season games, just based solely off KenPom’s projected scores and SBR’s spread/moneyline converter. (We realize this isn’t an exact science for the projected spreads; however, we’re merely using them to illustrate the overall point.)

DateOpponentPower ratingProjected lineUK expected win percentage
Feb. 7@ Florida82.6UK -983.8%
Feb. 10@ LSU79.8UK -1192.4%
Feb. 14vs. South Carolina80UK -17100%
Feb. 17@ Tennessee67.7UK -13100%
Feb. 21vs. Auburn57UK -24100%
Feb. 25@Mississippi State50.5UK -17100%
Feb. 28vs. Arkansas83.2UK -19100%
Mar. 3@ Georgia84.4UK -983.8%
Mar. 7vs. Florida82.6UK -15100%

Despite every game being well in their favor to win, KenPom gives the Wildcats basically a 50-50 shot of making it through the regular season unscathed. Their toughest games are either at Florida tonight or at Georgia on March 3.

Basically, unless UK comes out flat and runs into a hot-shooting opponent on the road, there’s a decent chance they’ll still be undefeated come SEC Tournament time. Let’s assume Kentucky will earn the No. 1 seed because, well, they’re going to earn the No. 1 seed. That means a double-bye to the quarterfinals, then games against the following teams based on the current SEC standings: No. 8 Florida, then No. 4 Ole Miss, then No. 2 Arkansas. They’ll likely be double-digit favorites against any SEC opponent on a neutral court.

In short, the SEC Tournament could play out the same way for Kentucky, which is to say: zero losses and a bunch of happy ‘Yes’ bettors.

The NCAA Tournament is a different story. Whether you decide to put your money down on Kentucky to run the table will come down to whether you think they’ll receive a favorable draw—and they should, being that they’ll likely earn the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed—and whether they can weather the storm as a young team on a succession of neutral or semi-neutral courts.

The quality of competition from the Sweet 16 on will likely be much better than what they’ve faced in the SEC.

Like Bogdanovich told Betting Talk, the current price of +370 appears to have been hammered into place. The early value of 50-to-1 might be gone, but Kentucky has shown they’re capable of winning out in the SEC and the conference tournament.

Backing the Wildcats to run the table in the NCAA Tournament will require a leap of faith, as all futures bets do.