All 30 NHL teams have played at least a quarter of their respective 2014-15 schedules, and there’s been some shakeup in the 2015 Stanley Cup odds. Some teams have seen their odds cut drastically—like the Nashville Predators jumping from 100-to-1 to 22-to-1 after a hot start—while other teams have fallen from grace, like the Colorado Avalanche dropping from 18-to-1 all the way down to 50-to-1.
This is the time of the season when a team’s true quality first becomes apparent. The quarter pole brings with it a large enough sample size from which we can make a relatively sound assessment of each club; unlike the preseason lines, the odds at the season’s 25-percent mark are a better indicator of a team’s expected finish.
It’s worth mentioning that hockey is one of the most fluid sports—a team is on offense and defense almost simultaneously, there’s no possession arrow, bounces affect a disproportionate amount of the in-game action, etc.—making it one of the toughest to handicap, as the shifts in the 2015 Stanley Cup odds show.
So, with that, let’s take a look at each team and see how they’re trending, Stanley Cup odds-wise, as we near the end of the calendar year.
(All odds, stats, and team records are as of Dec. 4 prior to any games being played.)
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Open: +650
Current: +700
The preseason-favorite Blackhawks have dropped slightly, but the move basically amounts to housekeeping. Chicago has four Western Conference Finals appearances and two Stanley Cup championships in the last six years; they’re still the top team on the board for a reason. This move is a reflection of the West being the tougher conference, with the more difficult path to the Finals.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Open: +1200
Current: +750
Why are the Penguins now essentially the 2015 Stanley Cup co-favorites? Because they’re good. Like, scary good. Having two of the league’s perennial top point scorers (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) and a postseason pedigree (playoff appearances in every season since 2006-07 and back-to-back Finals appearances in 2008 and 2009) favor Pittsburgh from a historical perspective; 36 points in 24 games favor them from a current perspective.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Open: +1000
Current: +900
Anaheim started the season on fire, winning eight of its first 10 games and 10 of its first 13. But November was a different story, as they went 5-3-5 during the second month. Still, the Ducks have seen their Stanley Cup odds shrink as a result of playing a tough schedule and losing games in overtime or shootout, as opposed to losing in regulation. Points are points, it would seem.
BOSTON BRUINS
Open: +1100
Current: +1100
With two Stanley Cup Finals appearances and one Stanley Cup win since 2011, the Bruins are a usually a preseason Cup favorite. Books and bettors have the hunch that the Bruins’ pedestrian start (by Boston standards) this year is only an aberration, and that defending Vezina Trophy winner Tuukka Rask will right the ship and bounce back to his career averages (2.13 GAA, .927 SV%) sooner rather than later.
LOS ANGELES KINGS
Open: +1000
Current: +1100
Los Angeles has been the NHL’s standard-bearer in recent years, as well as the poster child for warm-weather hockey (see also: Stadium Series, Dodger Stadium), much to commissioner Gary Bettman’s delight. But, that’s what three straight Western Conference Finals appearances and two Stanley Cups since 2012 will earn you. The move from 10-to-1 down to 11-to-1 is only in reaction to the relatively slow start by the Kings in 2014-15, but the club is expected to rebound.
ST. LOUIS BLUES
Open: +1000
Current: +1100
The Blues are right where they opened the season: in the middle of a pack of Cup favorites. Head coach Ken Hitchcock has installed a defensive system that prevents other teams from dominating possession, but a recent injury to starting netminder Brian Elliott might be concerning to anyone with money on—or putting money on—the Blues going forward. (Related: Yes, Martin Brodeur is still alive and well.)
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Open: +1400
Current: +1200
Tampa Bay was a trendy preseason pick at 14-to-1, and so far this season they’re proving their backers right, posting a 17-6-3 record and earning 37 points to lead the Atlantic Division. These odds will probably shrink as Ben Bishop, Steven Stamkos and Co. continue to play against the weaker Eastern Conference. (And, even if they were playing in the West, the Lightning would still have pretty short odds.)
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Open: +1800
Current: +1400
Les Habitants have been a pleasant surprise for futures bettors this season, going 17-8-2 en route to a spot near the top of the Atlantic Division. Goaltender Carey Price has been outstanding, earning 14 victories, which ranks him third in the NHL. The advanced stats reflect that Montreal’s hot start might be a mirage, though. Be forewarned.
MINNESOTA WILD
Open: +1400
Current: +1600
Head coach Mike Yeo signed a contract extension after leading his team to the conference semifinals last season, but his team is sliding down the odds board this year. Prized free agent acquisition Thomas Vanek hasn’t provided the offensive spark the team hoped, and the club is only treading water at the season’s quarter pole. There’s still time, but the Wild will have to make moves soon.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Open: +3300
Current: +1600
The arrival of goalie Ryan Miller via free agency has been a boon to the rebuilding Canucks, a team that wasn’t taken seriously by the books before the season. Relying on stellar goaltending—Miller has 15 wins and is sporting a 1.000 SV% in the shootout—might not be a recipe for long-term success, but the club’s odds have shortened out of respect for Miller’s ability.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Open: +6600
Current: +1600
The Islanders are another surprise team, riding hot goaltending from Jaroslav Halak and top-five possession numbers to a 18-7-0 record through 25 games. The underlying stats support the move from 66-to-1 down to 16-to-1, as the Isles haven’t relied on smoke and mirrors to get their wins. Books and bettors are taking notice of this team as it pushes for a playoff berth in its final season at Nassau Coliseum before moving to Barclays Center in 2015.
SAN JOSE SHARKS
Open: +1400
Current: +2000
The Sharks have been in a bit of a free fall this season, and rumors that head coach Todd McLellan might be given the boot have started to swirl as a result. San Jose’s epic opening-round collapse in the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs is still fresh in the books’ minds; anyone looking to bet the Sharks is getting a good price today. (The inherent risk there is, um … apparent, we’ll say.)
NEW YORK RANGERS
Open: +2000
Current: +2200
Last year’s Eastern Conference champions are almost exactly where they were to start the season, which is a reflection of the difficulty of sustaining success in today’s NHL. Parity around the league and injuries to key players have combined to make things tough for the Rangers in the early going, but the books aren’t quite ready to write off Carl Hagelin, Henrik Lundqvist and Ryan McDonagh just yet.
DETROIT RED WINGS
Open: +2200
Current: +2200
The Red Wings are the model of NHL consistency, having made the playoffs in each of the last 23 (twenty-three!) seasons. It’s become expected that they’ll be sitting in a postseason spot when the music stops, so it’s a little surprising there hasn’t been any change in their Stanley Cup odds yet, especially given their strong start. Injury luck should be on Detroit’s side, too; at a minimum, we’re guessing the Wings won’t be as unlucky as they were in 2013-14 when they were absolutely decimated by injuries to key players.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Open: +10000
Current: +2200
Easily the NHL’s most surprising team out of the gate, the Predators have cut their odds from 100-to-1 to 22-to-1 on the strength of their ridiculous start (16-6-2, 34 pts). Goaltender Pekka Rinne has bounced back nicely from injury and the club is posting incredible score-adjusted Fenwick numbers. The Preds (10-1-1 at home) might just be for real this season. Anyone holding a Nashville 100-to-1 ticket has our utmost respect.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Open: +3300
Current: +3300
The Caps might not have made progress (positive or negative) on the futures board, but they’ve played generally solid hockey this season. Alex Ovechkin will always be a fearsome offensive threat (12 goals and 21 points already), but the leadership of new head coach Barry Trotz might be what pushes this team to another level come playoff time.
CALGARY FLAMES
Open: +10000
Current: +3300
Although not quite as big of a jump as the Predators have made, the Flames cutting their futures number from 100-to-1 down to 40-to-1 by the 25-game mark is pretty impressive. Calgary can thank defenseman Mark Giordano (six goals, 19 assists) and forward Jiri Hudler (11 goals, 12 assists) for leading the charge. Hasn’t anyone told the Flames they’re still supposed to be rebuilding?
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Open: +3300
Current: +4000
We’ve already had, A) media and fan criticism of certain player contracts, B) a “fancy stats” revolution among the front office members and, C) #SaluteGate in Toronto this season, and the club is only 24 games into its schedule. (So: A pretty normal season for the Maple Leafs so far.) Poor possession numbers indicate the subpar start to the year might be a sign of larger issues in Toronto, which is why their odds have grown.
COLORADO AVALANCHE
Open: +1800
Current: +5000
Patrick Roy led a very young Avalanche team to the playoffs last year basically on the strength of otherworldly goaltending and unsustainable possession numbers. This year, we’ve seen those stats come crashing back to earth, as evidenced by the club’s current position in last place in the Central Division and the corresponding increase in its 2015 Stanley Cup odds. Even 50-to-1 might be considered generous at this point.
DALLAS STARS
Open: +2000
Current: +5000
Since being traded to the Stars in the summer of 2013, Tyler Seguin is the second-leading scorer among all NHL players over that time span. But despite having an all-world goal scorer on the roster, the Stars haven’t impressed the books so far. At 9-11-5 and sitting tied-for-last in the Central Division, even Seguin isn’t saving Dallas from dropping down the odds board.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Open: +5000
Current: +6600
The Devils are like the Red Wings; you always kind of expect them to be in or around the playoff picture by season’s end, although you’re not quite sure why. And even though it’s still early, this year isn’t shaping up as well as the Devils would like. They are treading water on the back of starting netminder Cory Schneider, and their Cup odds are treading water on the back of being below .500 so far this year.
OTTAWA SENATORS
Open: +6600
Current: +6600
The Sens are sporting weak possession numbers—25th in score-adjusted Corsi at 5-on-5; 27th in score-adjusted Fenwick at 5-on-5; 29th in score-adjusted shots on goal at 5-on-5—so their mediocre start isn’t too surprising. Their futures odds don’t quite reflect that just yet, but maybe that has to do with their opening number being so high to begin with. We should see even longer odds for Ottawa as we move forward this year.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Open: +3300
Current: +6600
The Flyers have seen their odds to win the 2015 Stanley Cup double during the first quarter of the season, mostly due to their steady downward movement in the Metropolitan Division standings. Philadelphia has gone through three separate four-game losing streaks already; the Flyers’ eight wins are basically due to Jakub Voracek’s 32 points and Jakub Voracek’s 32 points only.
WINNIPEG JETS
Open: +10000
Current: +6600
The Jets are the fourth-most improved team (odds-wise) at the season’s quarter pole. But the question remains: Can they sustain that kind of movement up the board? Winnipeg is in the top half of the league in score-adjusted Fenwick—a statistic that has a strong predictive quality—which may be why they’re drawing money as a long-shot futures play despite a pretty average record.
ARIZONA COYOTES
Open: +6600
Current: +10000
Newly rebranded and confident that they’ll be playing in the desert for years to come, the Arizona Coyotes haven’t impressed the public (or the books) with their sub-.500 start to the season. Arizona might have been a sleeper pick early on, but playing in the Western Conference is clearly taking its toll.
FLORIDA PANTHERS
Open: +7500
Current: +20000
The Panthers have been hoping for a breakout season over the past few years, and they have the young talent to produce one, but it hasn’t been in the cards for the struggling franchise so far this year. Unfortunately for Florida backers, the club has made NHL headlines more for its lack of fan attendance than for the quality of its on-ice play—which, at times, has been excellent.
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Open: +4000
Current: +20000
Injuries, injuries, injuries. The Blue Jackets are suffering mostly due to man-games lost to injury this season and their lengthening Cup odds are a reflection of that. In addition to their 136 man-games lost through Nov. 24, Columbus has posted a penalty kill rate, a team save percentage, and a goals allowed total that all rank among the worst in the NHL, none of which bodes well for the rest of the season.
BUFFALO SABRES
Open: +10000
Current: +30000
“McDavid or Bust.” “Keep Calm and Draft McDavid.” “McLose for McDavid.” No matter how you phrase it, the push to finish last in the league standings is on, and Buffalo management isn’t exactly hiding it. The opportunity to draft a generational talent is certainly an enticing prospect, which likely means longer odds for the Sabres—who are currently leading the McDavid sweepstakes—as the season progresses.
CAROLINA HURRICANES
Open: +10000
Current: +30000
The Hurricanes are trending downwards, and the numbers don’t look to be on their way to reversing themselves any time soon. Carolina dug itself a deep hole by starting the season winless in October (0-8), which is evident in their odds change. A 7-7-1 record in November left the Hurricanes well out of a playoff spot at the quarter pole of the season, which historically has been a position from which teams haven’t been able to rebound by season’s end.
EDMONTON OILERS
Open: +5000
Current: +30000
“Yeah, what those Sabres guys said.”
(All odds courtesy of Bovada)