Which college football win totals are coming down to the wire? 15 of them play this weekend

With the college football regular season in its final week, now is the perfect time to look back at the teams that need to win their games this weekend to eclipse the season win total marks set for them by the sports books.

These are the teams that the books are still sweating, being that the typical bettor tends to bet the over when it comes to regular season win (RSW) totals. Based on the opening numbers posted at 5Dimes on July 18, there are 15 schools that are sitting a half-win below their season win total number heading into Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (H/T SportsInsights.com)

(Disclaimer: some of these opening lines may have moved before the start of the season, but for this exercise, let’s assume that the openers held. They’re pretty good benchmarks.)

5Dimes offered lines on 70 FBS teams this summer; of the 15 that need to win their final games, 12 of them play on Saturday. (Texas A&M plays on Thursday; Nebraska and UCLA both play on Friday). Bettors holding tickets for any of these teams—and the books that printed them—will be watching those games very closely, and not just because they’re being played during the final week of the regular season.

So, without further ado, let’s examine which schools will decide their RSW fates at the last possible opportunity.

ALABAMA (10-1)
Win Total: 10.5 (Over -140, Under +110)
Opponent: vs. Auburn (-9)

We all remember what happened in last year’s edition of the Iron Bowl.

Even if you don’t remember, you can be sure Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide haven’t forgotten. This year’s season-ending game will be played at Alabama, meaning Bryant-Denny Stadium will play host to a revenge game that probably doubles as a chance for local boosters to add some cash to their pockets if the Tide can pull off the win against their in-state rivals.

As 9-point favorites, Alabama is expected to exact its revenge for last year’s wild loss at Auburn. Then again, the Tigers were catching 10 points a year ago, and we saw how that game turned out.

BAYLOR (9-1)
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -135, Under +105)
Opponent: vs. Texas Tech (-25)

Baylor was expected to have already surpassed the nine-win mark by this point in the season, and if not for a midseason slip-up at West Virginia, the Bears would have already cashed this ticket for “over” bettors.

Sitting at 9-1 going into their game with Big 12 also-ran Texas Tech, Baylor has to be confident in its ability to pull out a win at JerryWorld to seal the deal this weekend.

With the exception of the Oct. 11 game against TCU—a 61-58 win—Baylor has played a total of zero close games this season. The Bears rank first in FBS in yards per game, first in points per game, and third in total offense. Long story short: Baylor backers should be feeling confident about being able to turn their tickets into cash.

DUKE (8-3)
Win Total: 8.5 (Over +120, Under -150)
Opponent: vs. Wake Forest (-18)

WAKE FOREST (3-8)
Win Total: 3.5 (Over -170, Under +130)
Opponent: at Duke (+18)

It’s the perfect storm of season total scenarios: both teams sit a half-win below their respective numbers from July, and they’re playing each other on the final day of the regular season.

One team will finish under their total; the other, over. It doesn’t get much more precise than that.

Bettors backing both teams will be eyeing every play more intently than we’re sure they’d be willing to admit. If you don’t have a dog in the fight, this might be a fun game to watch, now that you know the underlying story.

GEORGIA (9-2)
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
Opponent: vs. Georgia Tech (-13)

At 9-2, Georgia Tech is well over its 6.5-win season total and has clinched a spot in the ACC title game versus Florida State, so they don’t have anything to play for other than hatred for their more famous in-state rivals. (OK, that’s still a pretty important reason.)

Georgia, on the other hand, is one win away from reaching No. 10 and cashing “over” tickets. The Yellow Jackets have outperformed the books’ expectations this season. Could they put up more of a fight than Georgia is expecting?

MICHIGAN STATE (9-2)
Win Total: 9.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
Opponent: at Penn State (-13)

It’s not quite a rivalry matchup for the ages but, still, two Big Ten teams playing in 36-degree weather at one of the FBS’s largest stadiums absolutely screams Midwestern football. We’re OK with what this game offers: A conference powerhouse trying to reach double-digit wins and go over the number, and another team that’s just kind of … there.

At 2-5 in conference play, Penn State will be playing for pride and for pride only. Michigan State can’t win the Big Ten—since they lost to division-leading Ohio State earlier this year—but they can win a bet for their backers by pulling out a victory in Happy Valley.

NEBRASKA (8-3)
Win Total: 8.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
Opponent: at Iowa (pk)

A couple weeks ago, it looked like Nebraska bettors were ready to cash an “over” ticket on a team that has seen more than its fair share of four-loss seasons over the past few years.

But, because nothing worth having is easily obtained (and because it’s Nebraska football), the Cornhuskers lost to Wisconsin and Minnesota in back-to-back games and now sit at 8-3. They have just one more chance to earn their ninth win.

OHIO STATE (10-1)
Win Total: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
Opponent: vs. Michigan (-21)

Ohio State has already clinched a berth in the Big Ten title game, so this weekend’s matchup with fellow blue blood Michigan doesn’t figure to provide much in the way of excitement. And, with the point spread still hovering around three touchdowns, the oddsmakers aren’t expecting this one to be close either.

That huge spread should give OSU backers the confidence that the Buckeyes can notch their 11th win. Then again, Ohio State has shown a tendency to overlook games, even against big-name opponents. (The home loss to Virginia Tech and double-OT scare at Penn State come to mind.)

Maybe an age-old rival coming into The Horseshoe is exactly the type of motivation the Buckeyes need. Their backers are certainly hoping it does the trick.

OREGON (10-1)
Win Total: 10.5 (Over -180, Under +150)
Opponent: at Oregon State (-19.5)

The Ducks head into Corvallis on Saturday in what will be the 118th edition of the Civil War. Oregon has dominated the series recently, winning six in a row and 21 of the last 30. So, if this year’s Oregon squad is searching for extra motivation in what’s been a very one-sided series lately, maybe going over 10.5 wins on the season would do the trick?

PURDUE (3-8)
Win Total: 3.5 (Over -145, Under +115)
Opponent: at Indiana (+3)

The Boilermakers haven’t exactly had the best season in the program’s 127-year history, and that’s putting it lightly. Luckily for them, they’re facing off against Indiana, the one team in the Big Ten with a worse conference record (0-7) than their own (1-6).

Will this matchup be the weekend’s most exciting from a conference title perspective? Or a rivalry perspective? Or even a football-is-inherently-exciting-because-it’s-football perspective? Probably not. Still, Purdue has the chance to go over four wins, which is all the excitement the three bettors out there with Purdue “over” tickets need.

TENNESSEE (5-6)
Win Total: 5.5 (Over -145, Under +115)
Opponent: at Vanderbilt (-17)

Tennessee has gotten to five wins the hard way, which is really the only way a team projected to win 5.5 games can get there. It’s been an up-and-down season in Knoxville, but a hard-fought game against SEC East power Missouri last week might have given the Volunteers the confidence needed to close out their season with a win.

In-state rival Vanderbilt is the host, and that’s for the best if you’re holding a Tennessee “over” ticket. The Commodores are 3-8 overall and 0-7 in SEC play, and they’re giving up roughly twice as many points (34.1) as they’re scoring (17.2).

There’s always drama in a rivalry game, even one as downtrodden as this. For some Tennessee fans, though, there will be just a bit more drama than usual.

TEXAS A&M (7-4)
Win Total: 7.5 (Over +145, Under -175)
Opponent: vs. LSU (+3)

Not many people expected Texas A&M to win much more than half its games in 2014. After losing Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans to the NFL, the Aggies were looking up at a loaded SEC West with a depleted offense.

Surprisingly enough, Texas A&M has tightened up somewhat on defense and proven it can score points when it needs to. A five-game winning streak to start the season—including wins at South Carolina and over Arkansas—bolstered A&M’s chances of reaching the eight-win plateau, but a subsequent three-game losing streak cast some doubt.

Still, the Aggies enter the final week of the regular season with a chance to earn their eighth win. The problem is that they’re facing an LSU team that has grown up very much over the course of the season and will be a tough test. A&M will have to rely on the 12th Man to provide some help in this Thanksgiving night game.

UCLA (9-2)
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +110)
Opponent: vs. Stanford (-6)

The Bruins have scraped by on more than a few occasions this year. Six of their nine wins have come by a single possession, although recent blowouts of Washington and USC revealed a more dominant team.

Stanford will be without WR Ty Montgomery, which only helps UCLA’s cause to get “over” 9.5 wins—at heavy -140 juice, to boot. The good news for Bruins backers is that UCLA is also in the hunt for a Pac 12 South title, needing a win to secure a spot in the conference championship game.

UTAH STATE (9-3)
Win Total: 9.5 (Over +160, Under -210)
Opponent: at Boise State (+9.5)

Yes, Utah State. The hidden gem of this list, one of five teams to offer plus-money on the over and the only one higher than +145. Unlike Oregon (-180) or Wisconsin (-145), Utah State didn’t require excessive juice just to place a bet on them to succeed.

To those who plunked down the cash to get an “over” ticket for this team, we salute you. That took some serious guts.

Standing in the Aggies’ way is a Boise State team that has been the face of the Mountain West Conference since 2007. The Broncos are 9-2 and were projected by the books to win 10.5 regular-season games. They won’t quite get there, but they’ll settle for motivation in the form of defeating a conference rival in the season’s final game.

WISCONSIN (9-2)
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -145, Under +115)
Opponent: vs. Minnesota (-14)

The good news for “over” bettors here is the Badgers need a win to secure a spot in the Big Ten championship game. Wisconsin is 6-1 in conference play, but Minnesota is right behind them at 5-2. Motivation certainly won’t be a problem.

The Badgers stumbled earlier in the season, losing to LSU and at Northwestern, but they’ve managed to rattle off six straight wins to give themselves a shot at reaching double digits.

Minnesota has already surpassed their 6.5-win total (they did so on Nov. 8 against Iowa), but a trip to the Big Ten title game would be a nice sendoff for a team that’s exceeded all expectations this season.